--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Clearview Capital Management (CCM) offers professional portfolio management services specifically through trading in the 24-hour spot foreign exchange market for large institutional clients as well as individual investors with a very high degree of customer service. This has allowed us to reap the benefits of a high yielding investment tool which is not only resistant to but is designed to profit from the fluctuations in global economic cycles and the changing relations between nations. By utilizing experienced traders of CCM, clients are not only able to participate in a market that has been the sole domain of profits for major financial institutions and central banks, but also to reap the benefits of proper diversification and positioning in the global market place.
www.clearviewcap-fx.com



Special Report: Dollar Outlook
By Matthew Kasse




Week of Monday Feb 24, 2003

Headlines and Week Focus
Data for the Week
Cross Rate Outlook
Previous week cross outlook review


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Headlines and Focus for the Week
US/Britain are expected to present a new UN resolution authorizing the use of force to enforce resolution 1441
GDP comparisons this week with UK/German/US GDP figures out this week
Weapons inspector Hans Blix makes final progress report to UN.
Look for BOJ activity, or rumors of activity by Tue/Wed as USD falls under pressure in front of the expected US/Britain resolution proposal
Data and Events for the Week
Mon Feb 24

Eurozone December current account
US Treasury Budget


Thes Feb 25

French January housing starts
French January consumer price index
French January harmonized CPI
German February Ifo sentiment survey
Eurozone December retail sales
German January import prices
US February consumer confidence
US January existing home sales
Web Feb 26

UK fourth quarter GDP
German Q4 GDP
German January retail sales
Greenspan Speaks


Thur Feb 27

German March Gfk consumer sentiment survey
French January PPI
French February compsoite business climate
French February general business outlook
Eurozone January M3
US January durable goods orders
US Jobless Claims
US January new homes sales
Greenspan Speaks again
Fri Feb 28

Eurozone February flash HICP
US Consumer Sentiment
US Fourth quarter preliminary GDP
US February University of Michigan sentiment index
February Chicago purchasing manager index
Weapons inspector Hans Blix makes final progress report to UN


Foreign Exchange Cross Rate Outlook for Week of 02/24/03

EUR/USD

Last week we expected the EUR to trade in a range and it did, with a final end of week push up above 1.0825 before easing off on mostly thin volume and quick price action. The USD ended the week towards the weaker side as expected and started early Asia on Monday stronger. We don’t anticipate this to be a week trend but rather a base finding mission. Overall on the week we can now begin to see further EUR strength as the correction from above 1.0900 has taken place from Feb 4th to now. Buy into EUR dips overall looking for rallies back towards the mid 1.08’s, but don’t rule out a push towards 1.0900 or higher on some quick price action. EUR/JPY has eased off its high a few hundred points and that should allow the EUR to begin trading back up towards 1.0850-1.0900. We are bullish on the week for the EUR/USD rate.

Early Week - Buy Euro in front of 1.0700 for a move back towards 1.0800
Middle Week - Look for 30-50 point EUR dips to buy into for 1.0850-1.0900
End of Week – USD to end the week trading nervously, GDP figures and UN issues will dominate creating volatile moves square longs into rallies ahead of the weekend

USD/JPY

This is going to be an interesting week for USD/JPY. While the EURO is likely to gain verse the YEN on the weak, the USD is likely to lose ground but maybe not so much early in the week as EUR/JPY finds its base this week for a return trip towards 129.25-130.00. While that may be a wide range to expect a EUR/JPY rally, the BOJ is on guard and will likely be quietly buying USD’s supporting their exporting corporations as further seasonal repatriation continues. We are therefore bullish on EUR/JPY but slightly bearish on USD/JPY for the week. We do however expect 117.25-30 to hold, creating a 117.40-119.25 range with most of the trading for the week taking place between 117.80 and 118.95. Sell into USD/JPY rallies with a trail stop methodology. However be long EUR/JPY into dips expecting the BOJ to hold up USD/JPY on the week, and for a return to the uptrend in EUR/USD.

Early Week – Sell into USD strength towards 118.95 for midweek 117.90
Mid Week – As the USD weakens, look for BOJ rhetoric to pick up and see the USD supported ahead of 117.50. Market should be rangy from here and ranges tighter but still favor selling USD rallies in front of 119.30.

End of week – Look for the USD to finish the week on the weaker side towards 117.90 with stops building under 117.30 building into next week as well as an increase in chatter of EUR/JPY offers near 129.75-130.00.



Have a great week trading and good luck!
Previous week FX Cross rate Outlook Review 02-17-03

Foreign Exchange Cross Rate Outlook for Week of 02/17/03
EUR/USD

EUR/USD made a very substantial stop loss run in Asia ahead of the US holiday, trading down towards the 1.0710 support levels. The market suggested that the protests around the world against a US lead invasion of Iraq along with the UN’s wish to pursue the inspection route will put the War on hold for now. We at CCM do not believe this to be the case, and, in fact, believe that the War is just a few weeks away during the ‘no moon’ phase in Iraq where the night skies will be the darkest all year. In any event, for this week we anticipate the EUR to stay within a tighter range of 1.0650-1.0810. We do however believe that buying EUR in front of 1.0700 is worth the trade for a move back towards Friday’s closing levels. We believe that a lot of stops were taken out in Asia on Monday and that the news last week and the comments made over the weekend by US officials suggest the War is going ahead as planned. None of this is USD bullish.

Early Week - Buy Euro in front of 1.0700 for a move back towards the Friday NY close
Middle Week - Look for a rangy market, don’t be afraid to sell/buy 50 pt rallies/dips
End of Week – USD to end the week on the weaker side, buy into dips for 1.0810



USD/JPY

USD/JPY last week held up very well and this week we look for that to reverse seeing the USD trade back into the 119’s overall. Last week we anticipated a deeper decline in EUR/JPY and we got it on Monday of this week. We still think EUR/JPY can fall further, but this week we see that being more motivated by USD/JPY. Also there is talk of Japanese interest to convert recent coupon payments on Treasuries into Yen. This coupled with seasonal Yen buying from Japan Inc. will weigh on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY all week. We see any USD rise capped ahead of exporter orders up at 120.95-121.25. We don’t however think that we even see a rally above 121 this week and advise selling into USD strength towards 120.75-95 for a move to 119.25 later in the week. Data out of Japan has been a bit better than expected and we think that this should add further to Yen bullish indicators on the week.

Early Week – Sell into USD strength towards 120.75 for midweek 119.25-50

Mid Week – As the USD weakens, look for BOJ rhetoric to pick up and see the USD supported ahead of 119.00. Market should be rangy from here and ranges tighter

End of week – Look for the USD to finish the week on the weaker side towards 119.25 with stops building under 118.90 into next week which you can expect to be taken out either on Friday this week or Monday next week





DISCLAIMER: Commentary and market information is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in this report is gathered from reputable sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Clearview Capital Management assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.