(15.02.08)
General view
The market is correcting. The data of “USA Trade balance” was released on Thursday, it turned out much better than it was predicted (–58.8 versus –61.8 forecast) and so most traders expected a vivid movement at the market right at this day, especially taking into account the release of such a good index. However, there was no luck, the movement was suspended after Ben Bernanke’s speech. But that’s the way it’s meant to be, the market can’t move in a single day in the direction of released news, traders should never run out of questions. That’s why a vivid movement will occur on Friday, after the news release, and it will be in favor of dollar.
EURUSD
The pair’s correction continues. On the 4-hours graph an ascending Elliot’s five-waves curve formed, with a final 5th wave at 1.4655 level. From that level I expect the correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend with a target at the lower bound of the “triangle” shape (M) on D1 to 1.4430 level, and further to trend line “G”, 1.4270 level. Breaking of “a-a+” trend will be a confirmation of descending movement’s beginning. On this day (Friday) TICS indicator, a very important indicator for USA, is released. I expect the development of such scenario on this day.
Daily
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20d1.gif -daily
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20w1.gif - weekly
GBPUSD
D1 graph shows that the pair is being locked in a range. There’s nothing remarkable happening on H4 graph, except indicators saying that it is time for “a-a+” trend to be broken downwards. Upon its breaking the pair will start a descending movement to specified targets.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20d1.gif - D1
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20w1.gif - weekly
USDCHF
The pair has a strongly pronounced side trend. It should find the support upon touching the black dotted trend line, then it should forward to resistance at 1.1105. Only breaking of this resistance will confirm the pair’s leaving the range and moving towards target 1.1270.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20d1.gif - daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20w1.gif - weekly
USDJPY
The picture about the pair is turning out neatly from previous forecast: from support 106.63 it went up and broke the “triangle” shape. With its breaking two targets opened: 109.36 and 110.57 – the pair is on its way to them. There’s a possibility of return to the higher bound of “triangle”, level 107.60, from which an ascending movement to specified targets will recommence.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20d1.gif - daily
GOLD
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20d1.gif - daily