EURUSD

The pair has had a strong technical support at 1.31 helped to come back above retest 1.332 which is the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 1.3665 to 1.275. By God`s Will, we see that the way up is still open for further gains after today`s clear comments of Wellink of the ECB that the interest rate in eurozone is very low. The comments have come in a mild inflation time as the recent CPI was just 1.9% y/y under the ECB 2% target! Also Bernanke has hinted a Fed`s hiking pause nearer than the market was anticipating. These have come after Buffett`s comments in the beginning of the week that the unsustainable US trade deficit should be in need of further USD decline and he is still shorting it. These remarks have dragged the USD down in time of the market reducing of its USD holding ahead of the US trade balance of Jan release by the end of the week. The speculations of further higher commodities prices in 2005 make the current market sentiment dovish to the USD.

USDCHF

The current geopolitical concerns are still putting weights on the pair as threats of a military action against Syrian are growing in spite of the Syrian decision to withdraw from Lebanon. But everything is looking not enough for the US administration about Syria. In the same time the threat of further explosions of the oil pipeline in Iraq are still on from Al Quada and 60$ dollar per light crude oil barrel is not away of us and the outlook of the commodities is very bullish currently attracting the market eyes which can exacerbate the USD position.

GBPUSD

The market is waiting for today`s UK trade balance of Jan and this can effect on the pace of the pair whether it is lagged behind the EURUSD or outpacing it!
The rate outlook is still the same as the market is still expecting another rate hike in the coming months but the market is not expecting a move this week. We wait for signs of growing the consuming spending and the housing prices again. Good manufacturing and industrial productions data of Jan can help the pair today as the market is expecting weaker percentages than December.

USDJPY

In spite of the high oil prices the pair and the Japanese official talk of no change of the USD domination or its asset, the JPY gains was fueled by a real decline of the USD reserve which mean that there is an actual direction of reducing its USD exposure and a slow down of the Japanese intervention tend to weakening the JPY supporting the greenback. We see that further USD decline and increasing of oil prices can really make a change of the Japanese policy and light the Asian carry of the greenback.