Research Desk


12th April 2005

Tuesday



Daily Support & Resistance:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.3115
1.9083

Resistance 2
1.3060
1.9009

Resistance 1
1.3017
1.8959

Pivot Point
1.2962
1.8885

Support 1
1.2919
1.8835

Support 2
1.2864
1.8761

Support 3
1.2821
1.8711

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards
Upwards





Yesterday’s technically driven market took the Euro to 1.3000 and Cable made its attempts to break higher as well.However, I believe the substantial rise in both the pairs was due to USD-negative sentiment ahead of the key US Trade Data and Minutes of FOMC meeting(22nd March). This is usually a USD-unfriendly event and fears of another $60 billion-plus deficit blowout are keeping potential USD buyers sidelined. On the other hand, if the Trade numbers hit the expected mark ($59 Billion) & FOMC Minutes are on the hawkish side of neutral we cold see a possible reversal in Euro and Cable, back below important support levels. Trader’s who are short USD should have tight stop-loss below 1.2850 for Euro and 1.8800 for Cable, just in case the fundamentals bring in any surprises.


Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2800-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3000-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.8650-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9000-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous







12/04/2005 06:00
Germany
Wholesale prices (March)
-
0.6%



12/04/2005 06:00
Germany
Wholesale prices (March) Y/Y
-
3.8%



12/04/2005 12:30
USA
International trade (February), bln
-59.4
-58.3



12/04/2005 12:30
USA
Export (February), bln
-
100.8



12/04/2005 12:30
USA
Import (February), bln
-
159.1



12/04/2005 12:55
USA
Redbook (09.04)
-
-



12/04/2005 18:00
USA
FOMC meeting minutes (22.03)
-
-



12/04/2005 18:00
USA
Federal budget (March), bln
-70.0
-113.9






Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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