Research Desk


13th April 2005

Wednesday



Daily Support & Resistance:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.3161
1.9143

Resistance 2
1.3089
1.9061

Resistance 1
1.3004
1.8991

Pivot Point
1.2932
1.8909

Support 1
1.2847
1.8839

Support 2
1.2775
1.8757

Support 3
1.2690
1.8687

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards
Upwards





A reversal upon reversal for Euro and Cable. Despite worst then expected US trade deficit umber, USD strengthened against most of the currency pairs, this was need to clear out some players and also was the profit taking ahead of FOMC meeting. However, FOMC minutes proved that USD strength was mainly because of positioning issues. FOMC also kept the “measured pace” as the part of their monetary statement.

Technically speaking, Euro and Cable looked all set to reverse back to 1.2800 and 1.8800 respectively; the daily charts formed a classic bearish reversal after US trade data news. But after the FOMC minutes of meeting both the pairs formed a reversal upon reversal pattern. This further strengthens our long-term bullish view for Euro and Cable. The further obstacles lie at 1.3050 for Euro and 1.9050 for Cable.




Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2800-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3000-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.8800-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9000-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounc







Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous







13/04/2005 06:45
France
CPI (March) preliminary unadjusted
0.5%
0.5%



13/04/2005 06:45
France
CPI (March) preliminary unadjusted Y/Y
2.0%
1.6%



13/04/2005 06:45
France
HICP (March) preliminary Y/Y
1.8%
1.9%



13/04/2005 08:00
Italy
Industrial production (February) adjusted
-
0.1%



13/04/2005 08:00
Italy
Industrial production (February) Y/Y
-
-1.5%



13/04/2005 08:30
UK
Claimant count (March)
-
-0.7K



13/04/2005 08:30
UK
Claimant count rate (March)
-
2.6%



13/04/2005 08:30
UK
Average earnings (3 months to February) Y/Y
4.4%
4.4%



13/04/2005 08:30
UK
ILO Jobless rate (3 months to February)
-
4.7%



13/04/2005 12:30
USA
Retail sales (March)
1.0%
0.4%



13/04/2005 12:30
USA
Retail sales excluding auto (March)
0.7%
0.4%






Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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