Research Desk


16th April 2005

Tuesday



Daily Support & Resistance:





Resistance 3
1.3261 EUR/USD
1.9285 GBP/USD

Resistance 2
1.3153 EUR/USD
1.9172 GBP/USD

Resistance 1
1.3090 EUR/USD
1.9108 GBP/USD

Pivot Point
1.2982 EUR/USD
1.8995 GBP/USD

Support 1
1.2919 EUR/USD
1.8931 GBP/USD

Support 2
1.2811 EUR/USD
1.8818 GBP/USD

Support 3
1.2748 EUR/USD
1.8754 GBP/USD

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards EUR/USD
Upwards GBP/USD




Concerns about US Economic slowdown led to further gains in both the pairs. US PPI numbers are due out today followed by CPI tomorrow. An upside surprise on prices could rapidly shift the market`s focus away from the risk of an economic slowdown and toward greater consideration of inflationary pressures.

Cable: As expected cable broke through the 1.9000 mark and technicals look even more bullish then they did yesterday. Furthermore, the pair held right above our pivot point in Asian session, which confirms further gains. However, the rally to 1.9060 came in sooner then expected, hence, if today’s fundamentals show surprising numbers then we should see cable consolidate some of its gains to 1.8900.From there, we should see cable breaking further resistance.

Euro: Broke through the 1.3000 mark, but couldn’t establish itself above this level. Technicals for Euro still look very bullish, but before the next round of buying starts, we may see Euro shredding some of its gains back to 1.2900.


Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2900-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3050-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.8950-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9150-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous







19/04/2005 06:00
Germany
PPI (March)
--
0.4%



19/04/2005 06:00
Germany
PPI (March) Y/Y
-
4.2%



19/04/2005 08:30
UK
HICP (March)
-
0.3%



19/04/2005 08:30
UK
HICP (March) Y/Y
-
1.6%



19/04/2005 08:30
UK
Retail prices (March)
-
0.5%



19/04/2005 08:30
UK
Retail prices (March) Y/Y
-
3.2%



19/04/2005 08:30
UK
RPI-X (March) Y/Y
-
2.1%



19/04/2005 09:00
Germany
ZEW economic expectations index (April)
-
36.3



19/04/2005 09:00
EU(12)
Industrial production (February)
-
0.5%



19/04/2005 09:00
EU(12)
Industrial production (February) Y/Y
-
2.2%



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
PPI (March)
0.6%
0.4%



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
PPI (March) Y/Y
-
4.7%



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
PPI excluding food and energy (March)
0.2%
0.1%



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
PPI excluding food and energy (March) Y/Y
-
2.8%



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
Housing starts (March), mln
2.055
2.195



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
Building permits (March), mln
2.080
2.074



19/04/2005 12:30
USA
Redbook (16.04)
-
-






Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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