Research Desk


20th April 2005

Wednesday



Daily Support & Resistance:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.3196
1.9456

Resistance 2
1.3137
1.9331

Resistance 1
1.3097
1.9249

Pivot Point
1.3038
1.9124

Support 1
1.2998
1.9042

Support 2
1.2939
1.8917

Support 3
1.2899
1.8835

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards
Upwards




What a bull run



US PPI number is USD negative followed by huge disappointment in US Housing Starts data; helped push both Euro and Cable to fresh weekly highs. However, todays CPI numbers should decide if this Bull Run would continue. If the Core-CPI comes in as expected 0.2% or lower, we should see both the pairs making fresh weekly highs. However, if the number comes in at Plus 0.3%, which would mean fed will have to get more aggressive on tightening cycle, could push both the pairs to test support levels.



Cable: Technicals continue to grow bullish, with yesterdays daily candle supported by 100 day SMA and today we have Bollinger bands opened with daily candle. Depending on todays outcome of US CPI numbers, we may see cable breaking first and second resistance levels; on the other hand the pullback should be limited to 1.9040-1.9000.



Euro: Sentiment towards Euro remains bullish with technicals gearing-up for one more round of buying. Depending on todays US CPI number the major hurdle for Euro would be 100 Day SMA at 1.3150 and pullback should be limited to 1.2970.






Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2900-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3145-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.9000-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9330-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous







20/04/2005 08:30
UK
M4 money supply (March) provisional
-
0.8%



20/04/2005 08:30
UK
M4 money supply (March) provisional Y/Y
-
9.5%



20/04/2005 08:30
UK
M4 lending (March) provisional, bln
--
10.8



20/04/2005 08:30
UK
PSNCR (March), bln
-
0.6



20/04/2005 08:30
UK
BoE meeting minutes (06-07.04)
-
-



20/04/2005 09:00
EU(12)
Trade balance (February) unadjusted, bln
-
-2.2



20/04/2005 12:30
USA
CPI (March)
0.5%
0.4%



20/04/2005 12:30
USA
CPI (March) Y/Y
-
3.0%



20/04/2005 12:30
USA
CPI excluding food and energy (March)
0.2%
0.3%



20/04/2005 12:30
USA
CPI excluding food and energy (March) Y/Y
--
2.4%



20/04/2005 18:00
USA
Fed Beige book
-
-






Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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