Research Desk


21st April 2005

Thursday



Daily Support & Resistance:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.3248
EUR/USD
1.9369
GBP/USD

Resistance 2
1.3178
EUR/USD
1.9295
GBP/USD

Resistance 1
1.3132
EUR/USD
1.9244
GBP/USD

Pivot Point
1.3062
EUR/USD
1.9170
GBP/USD

Support 1
1.3016
EUR/USD
1.9119
GBP/USD

Support 2
1.2946
EUR/USD
1.9045
GBP/USD

Support 3
1.2900 EUR/USD
1.8994 GBP/USD

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards EUR/USD
Upwards GBP/USD




CPI couldn’t help greenback…

US CPI number came in much higher then forecasted, which pushed both the pairs down. However, this knee-jerk USD buying was temporary, followed by surprise USD sell-off, which confirms further weakness for greenback.

Technically, Euro and Cable are becoming overbought, and losing momentum near resistance at 1.3120 and 1.9200 respectively, All of this means we may see a decent correction from here, back towards the 1.2950/1.3000 for Euro and 1.9100-9050 for Cable and then a period of consolidation before further gains. Remember that bullish momentum can move the markets a lot higher and quicker than we expect, so another fast move higher cannot be ruled out, and trying to pick a top here is not sensible.





Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2900-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3145-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.9000-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9330-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous







21/04/2005 06:45
France
Consumer spending (March)
-
-1.0%



21/04/2005 07:30
Italy
Consumer confidence (April) adjusted
-
104.1



21/04/2005 08:30
UK
Retail sales (March) Y/Y
-
3.6%



21/04/2005 09:00
EU(12)
ECB meeting
-
-



21/04/2005 12:30
USA
Jobless claims (week to 16.04)
327K
330K



21/04/2005 14:00
USA
Leading indicators (March)
-0.3%
0.1%



21/04/2005 16:00
USA
Philadelphia Fed index (April)
18.0
11.4



21/04/2005 20:30
USA
M2 money supply (11.04), bln
-
-36.7






Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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