Research Desk


22nd April 2005

Friday



Daily Support & Resistance:



Resistance Level 3
1.3212
EUR/USD
1.9332
GBP/USD

Resistance Level 2
1.3169
EUR/USD
1.9275
GBP/USD

Resistance Level 1
1.3109
EUR/USD
1.9175
GBP/USD

Pivot Point

1.3066
EUR/USD
1.9118
GBP/USD

Support Level 1
1.3006
EUR/USD
1.9018
GBP/USD

Support Level 2
1.2963
EUR/USD
1.8961
GBP/USD

Support Level 3
1.2903
EUR/USD
1.8861
GBP/USD

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards
EUR/USD
Upwards
GBP/USD




Greenspan effect…



Yesterday both the pairs were hampered by negative fundamentals from UK and Europe. Retails sales for UK took a dip which took cable with it, on the other hand France Consumer spending fell sharply, which took Euro down. Euro and cable continued south the entire day, with US initial claims dropping sharply and Philly Fed Index surprised the market. However, Mr. Greenspan opened the deficit story again, which helped both the pairs but later in Q&A sessions he supported revaluation of Chinese currency which caused the dip in both the pairs. Fed chairman also made several comments regarding the economy: not heading to stagflation; expanding at reasonably good pace. But his intention was clearly not to give fresh guidance to Fed policy watchers.



Technically, Euro and Cable are overbought and needed some correction to continue its next leg upwards. For today, Daily and Weekly charts looks mixed, Daily charts being overbought threatens more correction and on the other hand, being the last trading day for the week, stochastic on weekly charts are trying to close both the pairs higher. Euro should base around 13000-2950 and cable may find a base near 1.9000-8950.All the dips to support levels are seen as good buying opportunities.





Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2900-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3145-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.9000-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9330-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous







22/04/2005 08:00
EU(12)
Current account (February) unadjusted, bln
-
-7.9



22/04/2005 08:30
UK
GDP (Q1) preliminary
-
0.7%



22/04/2005 08:30
UK
GDP (Q1) preliminary Y/Y
-
2.9%



22/04/2005 09:00
Italy
Retail sales (February)
-
-0.2%



22/04/2005 09:00
Italy
Retail sales (February) Y/Y unadjusted
-
-2.5%



22/04/2005 09:00
EU(12)
Industrial orders (February)
-
-5.8%



22/04/2005 09:00
EU(12)
Industrial orders (February) Y/Y
-
8.5%







Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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