Research Desk


3rd May 2005

Tuesday



Daily Support & Resistance levels:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.2926 EUR/USD
1.9218 GBP/USD

Resistance 2
1.2902 EUR/USD
1.9155 GBP/USD

Resistance 1
1.2883 EUR/USD
1.9051 GBP/USD

Pivot Point
1.2859 EUR/USD
1.8988 GBP/USD

Support 1
1.2840 EUR/USD
1.8884 GBP/USD

Support 2
1.2816 EUR/USD
1.8821 GBP/USD

Support 3
1.2797 EUR/USD
1.8717 GBP/USD

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards EUR/USD
Upwards GBP/USD




Markets quite before the storm…



Euro has given-up most of its gains since 15th April and Cable is at 38.2% fibo level (15th april-20th April), I believe this is due to traders clearing out positions pre-FOMC meeting and non-farm payroll numbers. However, this move downwards in both the pairs doesn’t look that strong, moreover One possible trigger for a move downward in Euro & Cable could be the Fed removing the infamous "measured" word from its description of the future rate hike in today`s FOMC meeting as the market has been wanting it to do so for some time now - but how much more downside potential do we have here after 6 down days in a row? The only upward trigger I can think of right now is the failure of the Fed to remove the "measured" word. Above 1.2750 for Euro and 1.8850 for Cable, we have a potential for a big move upwards



Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2750-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3150-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.8850-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.9200-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (Local)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous





3/05/2005 08:30
UK
CIPS manufacturing index (April)
-
52.0



3/05/2005 09:00
EU(12)
PPI (March)
-
0.4%



3/05/2005 09:00
EU(12)
PPI (March) Y/Y
-
4.2%



3/05/2005 09:00
EU(12)
Unemployment (March)
8.9%
8.9%



3/05/2005 10:00
UK
CBI retail sales volume balance (April)
-
-9%



3/05/2005 12:55
USA
Redbook (30.04)
-
-



3/05/2005 14:00
USA
Factory orders (March)
-1.1%
0.2%



3/05/2005 18:15
USA
FOMC meeting announcement
-
-




Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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