Research Desk


17th May 2005

Tuesday



Daily Support & Resistance levels:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.2747
1.8676

Resistance 2
1.2700
1.8595

Resistance 1
1.2672
1.8490

Pivot Point
1.2625
1.8409

Support 1
1.2597
1.8304

Support 2
1.2550
1.8223

Support 3
1.2522
1.8118

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards
Upwards

Trend (Current)
Downwards-Below 1.3000
Downwards-Below 1.8900





TIC data couldn’t help the pairs…



The TIC data for march dropped to $47.5 bln, but if we take the average
TIC numbers for this year the US is importing on average $74 bln per month to fund a trade deficit that is running approximately $60 bln month. This is one reason the USD did not react particularly violently to the shortfall versus market expectations: it is still ahead of the game. Today we have some interesting data up besides the PPI - the US Housing Starts and Building Permits. While the sales of US New and Existing homes came in at record levels last month, the housing starts and permits data fell well short of expectations and would be the leading indicators of a slowing housing market down the road.



Euro does look like its basing around 1.2600 with a spike in daily charts and Cable looks like it should form a base today around 1.8300-40.Both the pairs are oversold, hence correction is on the cards.













*Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (NYT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous





5/17 14:30
US
Fed Board Governor Bies Speaks
-- --
-- --

5/17 10:00
US
Fed Board Governor Gramlich Speaks
-- --
-- --

5/17 09:15
US
Apr Industrial Production
0.2%
0.3%

5/17 08:30
US
Apr PPI
0.4%
0.7%

5/17 08:30
US
Apr PPI ex food & energy
0.4%
0.7%

5/17 08:30
US
Apr Housing Starts
1.98 mln
1.84 mln

5/17 04:30
UK
Apr CPI y/y
2.0%
1.9%





*Source: forexnews.com



Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

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