Research Desk


13th May 2005

Friday



Daily Support & Resistance levels:




Levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD

Resistance 3
1.2920
1.8870

Resistance 2
1.2870
1.8805

Resistance 1
1.2783
1.8730

Pivot Point
1.2733
1.8665

Support 1
1.2646
1.8590

Support 2
1.2596
1.8525

Support 3
1.2509
1.8450

Trend (Long-Term)
Upwards
Upwards


Everything is right for USD bulls as Retail sales surpass expectations...

We have been forecasting support levels after levels for Euro and Cable this week, and with USD positive data all through this week we ran out off all the support levels for both the pairs.

It all started on last Friday with a surprise in US non-farm payroll numbers (274K), where Cable held at 1.8900 and Euro at 1.2800. Both the levels were taken out by surprise in US trade deficit numbers (-$55bln) and market focus changed to lower supports 1.2730 (yearly Low for Euro) and 1.8700 for Cable. The last hope for reversal was yesterday’s US retail sales numbers, which came out at 1.4% and 1.1% less Autos - far higher than expected. The retail sales numbers paved the way for USD bulls and Euro hit fresh yearly low and Cable slipped below its support to test yet another support level today.

We would see a correction for this weekly Bull Run in USD and for Euro and Cable it all depends on next week’s Fundamental data. For now our Long-term bullish trend in both the pairs is on a long hold and we would have to see this week’s close in order to forecast future move.






Market Range:



EUR/USD

1.2600-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break

1.3000-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the bounce

GBP/USD:

1.8600-Support, Buy the bounce & Sell the break.

1.8900-Resistance, Buy the break & Sell the Bounce.








*Economic Calendar:



Date/Time (GMT)
Loc
Description
Forecast
Previous





13/05/2005 06:50
France
CPI (April) preliminary unadjusted
-
0.6%

13/05/2005 06:50
France
CPI (April) preliminary unadjusted Y/Y
-
1.9%

13/05/2005 06:50
France
HICP (April) preliminary Y/Y
-
2.1%

13/05/2005 12:30
USA
Business inventories (March)
0.7%
0.5%

13/05/2005 12:30
USA
Import prices (April)
-
1.8%

13/05/2005 12:30
USA
Export prices (April)
-
0.7%

13/05/2005 13:45
USA
Michigan sentiment index (May) preliminary
90.0
88.7





*Source: fxservice.com



Hemendra A.Ghaghada
Emirates FX L.L.C. - Chief Trading Analyst
P. O. Box: 114211, Dubai
Tel: +971-4-33 400 90
Fax: +971-4-33 448 28
Email: hemendra@emiratesfx.ae

Legal Disclaimer: This email is intended for the addressed party only and may contain confidential information. If you have received this email by error, please delete and notify the sending party immediately. FX, Securities, and commodity markets are high-risk investments that yield high losses as well as high profits. Trading involves human errors and occasional trade failures. Adherence to trading systems does not guarantee projected profits will be achieved all the time and does not present a legal guarantee against losses. This is not an invitation to invest. Emirates FX L.L.C. position as a financial consultancy, introducing broker, and/or currency market analysis firm should not override clients` due diligence and judgment in determining whether such investments are suitable options. Emirates FX L.L.C. does not hold, receive, or transfer on behalf of clients or other third parties funds intended for investment, and therefore shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation losses, lost revenues, or lost profits that may result from these materials.