Quote of the day: Speculation is only a word covering the making of money out of the manipulation of prices, instead of supplying goods and services. – Henry Ford

EURUSD

Trading strategy: long at 1.3960, stop at 1.3890(0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.4010, 2nd objective at 1.4100

Although it managed to rally above the 1.4000 mark for the first time since February, the euro failed to hold gains and pulled back to 1.3860, as the dollar recovered some losses against its major counterparts – especially gold which was sold-off after reaching a record high near 1365. The ECB left rate unchanged at 1%, as widely expected, and the U.S. initial jobless claims came at 445k, slightly better than consensus. Today’s key event in the economic calendar is the NFP data release in the U.S. – which is widely expected to print a positive figure. Speaking of today’s conditions – current recovery from 1.3860 towards the mid 1.39 is not convincing yet, but a clear break above 1.3950 should provide the green light for more gains, bringing yesterday’s 1.4025 in focus. Upside remains favored for now on a short-term basis but keep an eye on 1.3950. My yesterday’s plan to go long on pullback to 1.3950, expecting it to provide support, wasn’t the best thing to do. However, signs of recovery – such as breaking above 1.3950 again - should provide fresh buying opportunities. Potential weekly close into the 1.4 region will be an important bullish confirmation on longer term basis. Current exchange rate is 1.3936 @06:40 GMT

Support: 1.3900, 1.3850/60, 1.3800 and 1.3680/00
Resistance: 1.3950, 1.4000/25 and 1.4100
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bullish, short term – bullish, intra-day – mixed


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