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Fundamental Analysis, October 07, 2011
The biggest news yesterday was the result of the highly anticipated matches of the BoE and the ECB, in which the central issue was the increase of the stimulus. For starters, the BoE announced a dramatic increase of 75 billion pounds in the purchase target assets (totaling 275 billion pounds), citing the same reason strong pressure from bank funding markets. As expected, interest rates in the UK were left unchanged at 0.50%. Following this measure, the ECB announced a new purchase of bonds and the provision of two categories of long-term refinancing in the coming months, in order to help the banking sector to handle the prevailing lack of confidence in financial markets. As for the meeting, there had been considerable debate about whether we would be considering a rate cut, but it clearly has not materialized.
Also, the jobless claims data in the U.S. have had a mixed character, since the figures were smaller headlines than expected but have been offset by upward revisions to data from the last week. The initial jobless claims reached the figure of 401,000, when the forecast was for 410,000, but the figure of last week, which had been 391,000, has been revised upwards by 395,000. Quite similar were the continuation applications, which had impressed at first with 3700000 compared to 3725000 forecasting, but the reviews of last week marred the joy to increase from 3729000 to 3752000.
In today's session in the morning, non-farm payrolls data for this month was 103 K. The markets predicted an addition of 57,000 jobs in September to the U.S. economy, after zero growth in payrolls last month. The U.S. unemployment rate was left unchanged at 9.1%. After the publication of this data the main crossroads of the dollar rebounded upwards.
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