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Old 07-31-2004, 01:09 AM
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Default The Current Market Sentiment

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has come under further pressure by the end of last week on a better than expected Aug University of Michigan Sentiment Final reading which has come at 95.9 and the market was expecting 95.1. There was no serious direct impact from Greenspan`s speech by the end of the week. The pair is still under technical pressure and a test to 1.1950 again can be in a near time this week on further stop loss buying triggering. The market is to wait and concentrate on the US labor report of August. Also we have the ECB rate decision this week which is widely expected to not come with a new thing but Trichet`s speech on inflation and oil prices and their impact on the price stability and the growth in EU should be listened carefully.
Last week Greenspan`s comments on the growth in EU are still weighing on the pair.

GBP/USD

GBP is still coming down on the anticipation of no rate hike next month on the cable.
The market is to wait for this week UK PMI manufacturing data to watch the impact of the recent rate hikes. The economists are expecting another .25% hike by the end of the years but no data to consolidate this anticipation containing the current market sentiment right now.

USD/CHF

The events in EL Najaf are in its way to calm down on EL Sistany coming back reducing the geopolitical risks. So we should watch and wait for this week US Chicago PMI, The US consumer confidence and the US labor report by the end of the week as the main movers to the market sentiment. The market is expecting the non-farm pay roll is to be 150K. This is optimistic and it can be around 100k or may be less than this level.

USD/JPY

It can come under pressure this week on the recent decline of oil prices by the end of last week. We have the July Industrial Production-prelim this week as main JPY indicator. The pair is expected to still to be sensitive to the oil prices at its recent levels above 40$ per barrel.
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