EUR/USD

The FOMAC has ensured its previous view that there is not inflation risk but it is just the measured way of tightening it has promised later. Yes the growth of the labor market is modest but the comments on inflation in US have hurt the USD clearly and again the FOMAC has ensured that the current monetary stance is still accommodative and it has done what the market expected. Today`s Trichet`s comments has shown a constant recovery in EU but in a slow pace and a fear of the current high oil prices and in the same time some more obligation with the current 2% interest rate as much as ECB can!

GBP/USD

The market is still expecting further .25% rate hike by the end of the year after the disappointing 1.3% CPI of August of UK and in spite of today`s MPC minutes which have shown unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged at 4.75% in its recent meeting earlier this month. Also BOE has said that it maintained its robust outlook on UK GDP, but economic reports for the month were weaker and the labor market data was surprisingly weak. It said that signs of house price cooling might have raised risks of a more abrupt correction. Lastly, the Bank said that if sterling weakness persisted, it would likely add to inflationary pressures. The pair is expected to face a considerable resistance at 1.795.

USD/CHF

CHF has not got a considerable push from the SNB .25% rate hike last week. But it is expected to see USD firmness on the inherited sentiment that the rate tightening pace in US will be faster than it in Europe. The main waited key is the US durable goods orders of August.

USD/JPY

The pair was fueled this week by the Fed`s rate decision and current high oil prices above 40$ per barrel. Also the weaker than expected trade surplus data has put further weights on the JPY as The August exports was up 10.4% y/y, while the imports were up 18.4% y/y. also Bank of Japan board member Iwata said earlier that CPI was weaker than he expected last October and that CPI was not reacting to narrowing output gap But the JPY may have some help by the end of the month on the half fiscal year inflows by the end of this month.