EUR/USD
After last week US curable goods orders of August, the pair could reach this month high as the headline number, which includes transportation, fell by 0.5%, but the market has focused back on the core figure which has rose by 2.3%. We have seen also the EURO negatively impacted by the current high oil prices and the expectations of further rises this week especially after Trichet`s recent concerns on the impact of high oil prices on the European growth pace and in the same time he has hinted that the 2% interest rate can not be changed soon. The market is to wait for a group of data this week from EU and US can change the outlook of the pair and we are to start with germane IFO in the beginning of the European session.
GBP/USD
GBP could perform better than the other European currencies against USD. We have seen the main reason is the recent comments of the BOE that if sterling weakness persisted, it would likely add to inflationary pressures. the that market is still expecting further .25% rate hike by the end of the year In spite of the disappointing 1.3% CPI of August of UK and in spite of today`s MPC minutes which have shown unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged at 4.75% in its recent meeting earlier this month. Also the better oil resources of UK than its other counterparts in EU can help the GBP. We need this week to see UK Q2 Current Account, UK Q2 GDP and UK Sep Manufacturing CIPS.

USD/CHF
It is expected to see USD firmness on the inherited sentiment that the rate tightening pace in US can be faster than expected but the recent strikes and continued geopolitical concerns in IRAQ can help the CHF. We need to look into this week data to know more about the rate outlook in US and the inflation forces. We have Aug Core PCE Index y/y and US Sep Consumer Confidence.

USD/JPY
The pair was fueled this week current high oil prices which are expected to be above 50$ per barrel soon.
Also the weaker than expected Japanese Jul Tertiary Industry Index which has come disappointingly at -.8% has put further weights on the JPY. Also the BOJ board member Iwata said earlier that CPI was weaker than he expected last October and that CPI was not reacting to narrowing output gap but the JPY may have some help by this week on the half fiscal year inflows by the end of this month. We need to wait for Aug Large Retail Sales y/y and Aug Unemployment Rate from Japan.

Good Trading Week