EUR/USD

After the US presidential election had contained the market sentiment, it came back again to focus on the wide trade deficit in US and Bush`s inability to contain it and the current high oil prices. The pair is still on its uptrend persistence and well-supported above 1.272. The ECB has shown its concern on the high oil prices and its impact on the growth in EU which has already shown a slower pace in Q3 as the market was expecting a 0.4% rise from 0.5% in Q2 but it has come disappointing at 0.3%. But the EURO has shrugged off this weak figure and the dovish European Commission comments which have been agreed with Trichet`s concerns on the recent excessive euro up movement. It is expected to see weak IFO figure this month following the recent dovish ZEW which has shown a sluggish industrial growth in germane last week. We recommend light trading waiting for 1.3030. We see stop losses triggering orders. You can place buying orders at this place. The market can be volatile in the coming days and breaking the option barrier at 1.30 can help you


USD/CHF

As we have expected earlier that we are to see USD decline on Bush`s victory as this can carry further geopolitical concerns and probabilities of new conflicts may be in Syria next time. We are still expecting further threats to the oil pipelines in IRAQ can help the oil prices and CHF weakening the USD and the gold price to break above 450$. We may see further geopolitical concerns on Arafat death. This sentiment can persist in the coming weeks. It is not supportive to USD. Also Ramsfield`s announcements that the military operations in EL Falouja have not been finished yet after the distraction of the city is not helping the USD in the coming days!!!


GBP/USD

GBP is still lagging behind the other European currencies in their advance against USD on the recent housing prices easing which have been slowed to -.4% last month and the inflation forces in UK as CPI of Sep which have come at 1.1% and it was 1.3% august surprising and below market expectations and this was obvious from the BOE inflation report which has shown also concerns on the consuming sector in UK. There can be no more rate hike by the end o this year. This current dovish sentiment on the interest rate outlook can put weights on GBP across the broad generally and makes it at least lagging behind the EUR in the coming days and may be weeks!


USD/JPY

The recent decline of oil prices last week has helped the yen in spite of the Q3 GDP which has come at 0.1% percent and yearly at 0.3%, which was under the market expectations of a 0.5% rise q/q and a 2 % yearly. The pair has come down again below 106 and it is expected to be tackled by the official`s currency talking down below at this level but the USD decline across the broad may not help them and the market is looking for a breaking of 105 this week too!.