The US blue chips are still trying to find their way back up by making some shy gains, after last Thursday massive selling off on the political tension in US and the geopolitical tensions between US and North Korea which can keep The US equities indexes exposed to another downside wave. As it looks this time that the investors' trust is not quite enough to push them above their all times highs, despite the rising confidence in the consuming spending in US which has been highlighted by the end of last week by the preliminary release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index which has shown rebounding to its highest level since last January to 97.6, after falling to 93.4 in July. After US retail sales of July have shown rising by 0.6% monthly beating the expectations which were referring to rising by only 0.4%, after falling in June by 0.2% has been revised to increasing by 0.3%. These data could boost the US treasuries yields but they were not enough to bring back the bullish sentiment to watch these yields giving back what they gained easily, as the trust in Trump's reflation plans is still fading to be now at its lowest level, after new series of resignations because of his remarks about the violence in Charlottesville, Virginia. The republican speaker Paul Ryan has tried to cool down the worries about the conflict between US and North Korea in his CNN meeting by saying that his agreed with Trump policy which puts pressure on China to make crucial change in the situation. Paul summarized his worry by saying that it is ruled out to see military conflict soon, but the main concern is the possibility of selling Nuclear weapon by North Korea. However the markets main worry meanwhile is the North Korean reaction to the new military exercises between US and South Korea. The gold could easily touch $1300` psychological level by the end of last week but with some improving of the current improving of the risk appetite it retreated to be now to be close to $1290. While the markets are waiting for new comments from the monetary policy makers when they meet in Jackson hole by the end of this week to know more about the interest rate outlook. The Fed's Chief Janet Yellen is widely expected to give strong reference to the current weaker than expected inflation pressure in US which finds difficulty in building up wages inflation pressure despite the labor market improving. As the employees are still looking accepting lower wages for having jobs and the employers do not find need to pay much more for achieving their required businesses. While most of the market participants are now pricing in one more interest rate hiking by the end of this year by 0.25% and starting of unwinding The Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet with the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said last week it would be “reasonable” to announce the beginning of a reduction of the central bank’s balance sheet next month, while cautioning that disappointing inflation data may delay interest-rate increases as technological disruption dampens price pressures. There will be focusing on the ECB president Draghi's comments, after The single currency could be boosted by his signaled that the ECB members are to talk about the QE tapering next autumn following last meeting of the ECB members. While the minutes of that meeting came out last week to show discrepancy about the suitable forward guidance that should be given to pave the markets for new action without misleading or lagging. The minutes said that the members agreed that there should be a change but it must be "incremental" as postponing an adjustment for too long could give rise to a misalignment between the Governing Council’s communication and its assessment of the state of the economy. Gold-22-08-2017 09-13-31 ص.jpg
The Gold could have another bullish sign last week by surpassing last Jun. 6 high at $1296.07, but its upside momentum set back, after finding difficulty to foot above $1300 level.
The gold is now close but below this psychological which has been reached, after it could form another higher low at $1267.27 above $1251.16 to come in its ascending way from its second bottom at $1204.85which came above last Mar. 10 bottom at $1194.98.
The Gold could keep its existence based above its daily SMA50 and its daily SMA100 by bouncing up from $1251.43, after the rebounding from $1204.74 brought it back above daily SMA200.
XAUUSD daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading today $1268.88 in its 10th day of being above the trading rate, after forming a bottom on Aug. 8 at $1251.16.
XAUUSD daily RSI-14 is still referring to existence inside its neutral area reading 62.161.
XAUUSD daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is having now its main line in its neutral territory at 61.913 leading to the downside its signal line which is higher in the same area at 64.627.

Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ $1252.76, Daily SMA100 @ $1256.41 and Daily SMA200 @ $1229.98
S1: $1267.27
S2: $1251.16
S3: $1204.74
R1: $1300.85

R2: $1337.37
R3: $1375.20
Have a good day
Kind Regards
Global Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143