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  1. #1
    josbarr is offline Junior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2002

    Default Re: USD Outlook (CCM)

    Subject: Dollar Climbs on Speculation U.S. Reports Will Show Expansion

    Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had the biggest one-day gain
    against the yen in more than three months and rose versus the euro
    in New York on speculation earnings, retail sales and factory
    reports will add to signs the U.S. economy is expanding.

    ``Given the economic data and the earnings out of the U.S., the
    dollar should retrace some of its recent weakness,`` said Scott
    Barlass, who as director of currency risk helps manage $22 billion
    at Abbey National Asset Managers in Glasgow, Scotland. The U.S.
    currency should do ``reasonably well`` in coming weeks.

    The dollar is down 2.2 percent against the euro and 3.7 percent to
    the yen since Group of Seven finance ministers called for more
    flexible exchange rates Sept. 20. U.S. retail sales excluding autos
    rose in September for a fifth month and New York manufacturing
    expanded for a sixth, economists expect reports to show tomorrow.
    Companies releasing third-quarter earnings today include Intel Corp.

    The dollar rose to 110.12 yen at 7:34 a.m. in New York from 108.93
    yesterday. It`s the biggest one-day increase since June 26. It
    strengthened to $1.1647 per euro from $1.1705. Earlier, the dollar
    reached $1.1585 to the euro, the highest against the 12-country
    European currency since Oct. 6.

    European Central Bank council member Ernst Welteke said today he
    doesn`t see dollar weakness lasting because ``everyone responsible
    is aware of the situation and there will certainly be a gradual
    adjustment and a gradual reduction of the imbalances.`` He was
    speaking in a televised interview with Bloomberg News.

    Stocks Advance

    Companies including Motorola Inc. and PeopleSoft Inc. have raised
    their forecasts for this quarter, and the Standard & Poor`s 500
    Index yesterday rose to the highest since June 2002. It has
    increased 19 percent this year. More than half the members of the
    S&P 500 will release results over the next two weeks.

    Intel and Merrill Lynch & Co. are scheduled to release earnings
    today. Motorola Inc. yesterday beat the company`s forecast for third- quarter profit and sales.

    U.S. retail sales excluding autos rose 0.4 percent in September
    after gaining 0.7 percent in the previous month, according to the
    median forecast of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

    A separate survey shows that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
    may say its index of regional manufacturing will register at 16 in
    October, compared with 18.35 in September. Readings greater than
    zero signal manufacturing is improving.

    Budget Deficit

    The U.S. budget deficit will surge to a record $600 billion in the
    fiscal year that began on Oct. 1, some of Wall Street`s biggest bond
    trading firms said.

    The U.S. must attract $1.5 billion a day in foreign investment to
    finance the shortfall in the current account, the broadest measure
    of international trade and investment. The deficit widened to a
    record $138.7 billion in the second quarter, or 5.1 percent of gross
    domestic product.

    Ethan Harris, chief economist for Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.,
    said he may boost his firm`s estimate for third-quarter U.S.
    economic growth to about 6 percent from a previous prediction of 5
    percent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday increased its forecast
    to 6.5 percent, the fastest in almost four years, from 5 percent.

    Abrupt Adjustments

    U.S. economic growth will slow to 3.7 percent in the final three
    months of the year as household spending cools, according to the
    consensus estimate of 53 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic
    Indicators released Friday.

    The euro`s gain against the dollar is ``still within an acceptable
    framework because the euro`s exchange rate is at its long-term
    average,`` Welteke said today. ``If abrupt exchange rate adjustments
    follow, it would disrupt competition and production conditions,
    harming the world economy as a whole.``

    The euro strengthened more than 8 percent from the beginning of the
    year through the start of the G-7 meeting. ECB President Wim
    Duisenberg yesterday said traders and investors may
    have ``misunderstood`` last month`s G-7 communique.

  2. #2
    FXTrader.NET is offline Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2003

    Default USD Outlook (CCM)

    USD OUTLOOK by James Weiss, Managing Director-CCM
    Economic Data
    MONDAY June 2
    -US May ISM Index - 10:00 am
    -US Apr Construction Spending - 10:00 am
    -US May Auto/Truck Sales - Noon
    -UK May Reuters PMI Mfg.

    TUESDAY June 3
    -Canada Interest Rate Decision
    -Euro Apr Employment Figures

    WEDNESDAY June 4
    -US Weekly Oil and Gas Inventories
    -US May ISM Services - 10:00 am
    -US Q1 Productivity - 8:30 am
    -UK May Reuters PMI Services
    -Australia Q1 GDP
    -Australia Interest Rate Decision
    -Euro Mar Retail Trade

    THURSDAY June 5
    -US Weekly Jobless Claims - 8:30 a.m.
    -US Apr Factory Orders - 10:00 am
    -UK Interest Rate Decision
    -Euro Q1 GDP
    -Euro Interest Rate Decision
    -New Zealand Interest Rate Decision
    -Sweden Interest Rate Decision

    FRIDAY June 6
    -US May Non Farm Payrolls - 8:30 am
    -US May Employment Figures - 8:30 am
    -US Apr Consumer Credit - 3:00 pm

    Eur-usd failure on Friday to capitalize on Thursday’s bullish candle formation and the likelihood of a gap down at the open of trading this week on Bush’s remarks regarding continued U.S. policy of strong USD on Sunday coupled with recent strength in U.S. Equity markets could fuel demand for USD and increases the odds of further weakness into Monday. For now initiated a short at 1.1767, look for choppy trade, tight stops, target 1.1526 as low for the week.

    Usd-chf breaks 1.3015 to trigger attempts on 1.3069 and reinforce further gains into Monday noting a settlement above 1.3000 confirms an engulfing bullish candle pattern. However, some form of mild correction is likely from the mid-upper 1.30-s. buy dips.

    Usd-jpy: the May inverse head-&-shoulders and the subsequent 3-day bullish flag both target gains above 121.26 by the end of the week. Strategies favor buying into the mid 118-s.

    Gbp-usd: Friday’s small 48-hour double top contrasts with bullish signals generated by Thursday’s break above the 1.6473 former 7-day range top For now
    Initiated new short at 1.6346, also keeping in mind break of 1.6309 reinforces the reversal picture to target 1.5926 on the week.

    The eur-gbp major uptrend stalled in late May. Gains above 0.7217 are needed to
    Re-target 0.7254/62. Otherwise a bearish break of 0.7191 will confirm the up-trend short term reversal, new short initiated at 1.7199 with initial target of 0.7145 & 0.7103 on the week.

    us dollar
    eur-usd short
    1.1767 Week’s target 1.1526 stop
    usd-jpy buy
    at 118.67 Week’s target 121.26 stop at 118.37
    gbp-usd Short
    1.6346 Week’s target 1.5926
    stop 1.6416
    usd-chf buy at 1.3045 Week’s target 1.3263 stop at 1.2985

    eur-jpy short at 140.60 Week’s target 138.55 stop at 140.95
    eur-gbp short at 0.7199 Week’s target 0.7103 stop at 0.7225
    eur-chf short at 1.5292 Week’s target 1.5143
    stop 1.5339
    gbp-jpy short at 194.92 Week’s target 192.46 stop at 195.85

    DISCLAIMER: Commentary and market information is provided for informational purposes only.
    The information contained in this report is gathered from reputable sources and is not intended to be used as investment advice. Clearview Capital Management, Inc. assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.


  3. #3
    FX Consultant is offline Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004

    Default Re: USD Outlook (CCM)

    I see that USD is down this week.
    Geopolitical concerns.
    The slower pace of hiking rate anticipation.
    The speculation of another 25 basis point in UK later this week.
    The pair can gain momentum from crossing 1.234 to rethreat this year high at .1.2935.
    I do not see a constant decline of oil prices and it is just a temporary impact.
    The unsustainable US trade deficit can press on the USD across the broad this week.
    Follow this week greenspan toon

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