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Old 12-27-2007, 05:17 AM
analytic analytic is offline
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Default Wave Analysis on EUR/USD-MN1 from FOREX LTD

At the D1 chart of the pair there is a renewed version of marking of wave activity for the assumed branch «{c} or {iii}» with a basic cycle of one month of market data optimization.

The events of the previous month since the day of the last review from November 11, 2007 were considerably problematic in case of adjustment of charts of shorter time interval. I was to work hard to minimize the counteractive moments from Neely’s method but unfortunately just to minimize. Moreover concerning the exotics of NeoWave figures to my mind there is quite an unreliable situation for planning of trading operations even in spite of the fact that the priority direction for planning of trading operations are still confirming.

Hence the first cause that originated the necessity to review the marking from November 11, 2007 was the association with Terminal Impulsion within wave [C] of Zigzag that had the suspicious moment of delaying by development time of this wave that considerably exceeded the joint duration of [A] and [b] waves. And taking into account the additional time for the assumed period of waves [iv] and [v] development there are almost no chances for balance keeping by time for segments of Zigzag figure even in case of failure in development of [v] wave. On the other hand after considerably dynamic bullish rally from September 05, 2007 for presumptions that branch «{c} or {iii}» is completed I did not find sufficient grounds in logic and marking variant.
As a result the renewed marking version of the assumed «{c} or {iii}» branch is represented by corrective figure of Double Combination where the first figure is Zigzag and the second one have the features of formation of Triangle with a reverse alternation as NeoWave figure (Reverse Alternation Triangle). The main difficulty in this version is “unusual” long [X] wave. Nevertheless the duration of [X] wave did not exceed the duration of the first corrective figure and that is why it does not in conflict with the logic of development of complicated corrective combinations. The structure of [X] wave has the feature of formation of Running Non-Limiting Triangle and as a confirmation the break on completion of this figure exceeded 1.618 towards its biggest segment of [b]-wave.
Concerning the development of the last figure for Double Combination in most cases Double Combination with the first Zigzag are completed with Non-Limiting Contracting Triangle. In considered MN period of data optimization this version is quite logical and there are no contradictions. Nevertheless having considered this data with W1 cycle there are many contradictive moments for logical adjustment of market activity with the beginning from September 5, 2007 up to tops into the sole corrective figure. The variant of possible formation of NeoWave figure (Reverse Alternation Triangle) does not look very reliable till the figure attains its completion and at present to my mind the problems of logical interpretation of the current market activity are being resolved according to the following positions:
-As a rule for Triangle with a reverse alternation the first stage of [A]-[b]-[C] development reminds Zigzag where [b]-wave has the minimal boundary duration towards separate [A] and [C] waves as well as each one. Moreover for this figure it is naturally that the duration of [b]-wave will be shorter than the duration of [A] and [C] waves but these three segments are triples. In our case we have the boundary equality of [A] and [b] duration and the excess of [C] duration towards [A]-wave.
-For Triangles with reverse alternation wave [A] exceeds wave [C] by amplitude and can be the biggest segment in this figure. In this marking for [C] wave there is the excess by maximal point for this parameter with regard to [A] wave but the structure of [C]-wave by type of Double Combination with completion of Failed Flat is very logical and corresponds to Triangle’s figure on correlation of its waves as well as consequent rise of bearish activity.
-Taking into account the completion of Double Combination within the structure of [C] wave we have reasonable grounds to expect the attainment of [C] wave beginning with possible further fall before [D] wave is completed and the stage of development for [E] wave will start as the last segment for completion of «{c} or {iii}» branch.
-On confirmation of previous observation concerning [D] wave for [E] wave there is possible processing of correlation of fibo amplitudes of [E] wave to [A] or [D] wave.

Having resumed the above mentioned observations we have backgrounds for sales up to 1.4020/1.4120 with further calculations for strengthening of positions on the end of [E] wave as the last segment of «{с} or {iii}» branch.





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With respect,
analytic
FOREX LTD
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Old 01-03-2008, 06:49 AM
anthonfoxy anthonfoxy is offline
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