Eurusd 12/07/2007
Following Bank of Canada the Bank of England reduced its basic interest rates by 25 basic points, from 5,75 % up to 5,5 %. The bank declared that growth of the British economy started to be slowed down and reduction of demand should lower inflation. Analysts consider that rates can be dipped to 4.00 % to avoid sharp decrease in economic activity. "Today's MPC decision to reduce rates is the first step in the long period of mitigation of monetary policy which can lead to slump in rate", Roger Butl, Deloitte economic adviser considers.
The euro grew against dollar after the publication of the decision of the European central bank to leave the rate without change. Traders began to sell dollar actively after tough statements of ECB Head Trichet.
Thereby, having interrupted a fortnight uptrend on dollar. On the eve the dollar grew on a background of quite good news on industry, having tested a monthly top - a level 1,4540 on euro.
The volume of industrial orders in the USA in October was up 0,5 % from 0,3 % in September, the US Department of Commerce informed. Earlier it was informed that in September rise in orders made 0,2 %. Economists considered that the parameter remains without changes. Durable goods orders in October reduced by 0,2 %. Durable goods orders in September reduced by 1,4 %, as well as it was informed earlier. Nondurable goods orders in October were up 1,3 % after growth by 2,1 % in September. Orders in transport sector in October grew by 0,5 % after falling by 6,9 % in September. Orders for production of civil aviation industry dipped by 5,2 % in October.
At press-conference ECB Head declared that priorities of policy of European Central bank remain former: restrictions of inflationary risks. However Trichet declared that bank raising forecasts of inflationary level in Eurozone, reduces forecasts of economic rise.
Besides in the market there were rumors that ECB can concede to pressure of the European governments being anxious by euro growth, which causes damage to the European manufacturers. Some analysts consider that ECB can follow example of Bank of Canada and Bank of England. Though the head of the European Central Bank continues to stand upon its positions in the way of control over inflation, therefore most likely during at least several months ECB will keep rates at a former level.
Growth of euro has been limited today after an issue of data on the US employment. The market considered them as neutral and even more positive, than negative. Growth of payrolls in November was less than in October, however above analysts’ expectations, and data for October were issued with increase up to 177 000 from166 000. The market expected more significant decrease of payrolls rise in November up to 70 000, real data demonstrated growth of an indicator of employment by 94 000. Besides the inflation rate remained at a former level - 4,7 % whereas the market expected growth of this parameter by 0,1 %.
As a whole for last two weeks the dollar managed to "win back" 300 points after testing a historical low - a level 1,4970. Next week the market’s attention will be focused on the decision of the Federal Reserve on rates, it will be published on Tuesday on December, 11th. Activity of traders will be lowered, and eurodollar quotations will be within the limits of a level 1,46. While we remain outside the market.
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