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  1. #11
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Jul 2010
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    Default EUR/USD Analysis

    EUR/USD

    Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

    Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732

    Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720

    Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050

    Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

    Today's trade suggestion:
    Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000

    Update:
    Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish trend
    today.

    Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as faras 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

    EUR/USD Hourly chart:
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  2. #12
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Default The Sad Facts Continued

    Due to a technical problem I was unable to post this yesterday, but here it is

    This last scenario was based on 200 pips per month and no losing months, at a 5:1 leverage. We have already discussed leverage, but let me remind you that this means 5 mini lots per trade position per $10,000 in your trade account, or 5 100k lots per trade position per $100,000 in your full account.

    As you can see, I have even allowed for a deduction of $100 per month for subscription fees!

    The account grows from a starting balance of $10,000 to a final balance of $88,200 after two years!

    Yes, that’s eighty eight thousand two hundred dollars after two years!

    This has been achieved at a conservative 200 pips a month with a very safe leverage of only 5:1, and you can see that most of the growth has come about through sensible growth and re-investing profits at a safe rate of return.

    That’s the power of compounding!

    Note how the number of lots traded grows as the account balance grows, enabling you to make more money from the money you have already made. If you push the projection out for just one more year, the profits are an amazing $274,200!!

    Well, if only it were as simple as that. The problem is that not every month is a winner (although 100% are at this time) and we don’t make 200 pips every other month. The good news is that we actually make over 300 pips per month most of the time, and the bad news is that we must allow for losing months.

    Ok, so let’s look at scenario 2 – a more realistic picture of what might be achieved. I have changed the winning months to 300 pips each (compare this to the actual results in the table on the first page) and have also allowed for three losing months of -350 pips each. Let’s look at the more realistic Scenario 2:
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  3. #13
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Default EUR/USD Analysis 2 August

    EUR/USD

    Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

    Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

    Key G7 support levels: 1.2960/80, 1.2920, 1.2660/70

    Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

    Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

    Today's trade suggestion:
    A messy old day on Friday (as expected on the last Friday of the month) saw some nasty whipsaws leaving the price essentially unchanged since Thursday. This week we are bullish yet again, with weekly support at 1.2860 and various support levels above there at 1.2960 and 1.2920. The strategy remains unchanged – but the euro into
    dips after a clear g7 entry signal with a target of 1.3100 and perhaps higher. A word of caution – the price has reached just shy of the weekly 38% retracement level (see weekly) chart, and the euro is more overbought than it has been since October 2009. This means we are possibly due for a sharp correction, which could take us below the weekly trend reversal level in quick time.

    Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a sudden pullback as far as 1.2500. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

    EUR/USD Hourly chart:
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  4. #14
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Default Your Trading Plan starts here…

    Your Trading Plan
    Your trading plan should be based around your investment objectives, your personality and your starting capital. Trading is different for everyone and it is important to have a plan that is realistic and reflects your unique personality and circumstances.
    Constructing & Implementing – Your Trading Plan:

    Do Your Homework
    It is firstly essential to learn the basics, how and why markets move and research a method that you are comfortable with to trade: ie one that is based on sound methodology, and one you can trade with confidence, and discipline. So before you start to trade make sure you have good background knowledge on all aspects of trading. You would not try and drive a car without lessons, and the same is true of trading currencies. If you trade and “shoot from the hip”, or on tips from friends, and stories in the financial press, you are almost certainly going to end up a loser over time.

    Match Your Method To Your Personality
    It should be one you have decided you have confidence in and can implement with discipline. This may sound obvious, but many traders trade in a way that is totally opposed to their personality. For example, if you are impatient and hate giving back any profits then a long-term trend following system is not for you; you would probably be better suited to a shorter-term swing trading method.


    Begin With A Simple Method
    One fact that remains true is that simple systems work best for most traders. There is no link between the complexity of a method and how successful it is. Another advantage of simple systems is they are easy to understand and implement and this helps you stay disciplined in the face of the inevitable run of losing trades.


    Begin With Sufficient Capital, Trade Small Positions And Diversify
    The utopian dream is to start trading with a small amount of money and make it into a fortune in a few months. The reality is this is unlikely to happen to the majority who trade. The first thing to do when trading is start with enough capital to take a string of losses. The simple fact is: the less you start with the lower your odds of success. It’s a matter of logic. If you are hoping to get on board one big move, it may take ten consecutive losses before the winner comes. By then your capital could easily be depleted and the move you were hoping for comes without you being able to participate. Always start with enough capital to allow you to take a few losses. If you can you should hold a few trades in different areas to diversify your positions ie “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” and blow your money in one trade. To start with keep your position size small and spread the risk.


    Make Objectives Realistic
    What is realistic amount of profit to aim for annually on your starting capital? Many investors when asked this question simply say as much as possible. They have not sat down and thought about it, they simply have read stories of the minority who have made it big and want to do the same. The fact is that most traders’ start with unrealistic expectations and this leads them in to a false sense of security. They ignore the risks of trading; they concentrate too much in one trade and risk too much and end up losing.

    So what is realistic?[/b]
    Any trader who can achieve growth rates compounded of 30% + per annum is doing very well. Generally, a compound growth of 30 – 50% per annum would place you in the top 10% of traders that make money and this is a realistic goal if you do your homework.


    Be Independent and Isolate Yourself
    Emotions are your enemy when trading so it is important to be independent and follow your own path. It may sound lonely relying on yourself and is in fact uncomfortable to many but as time goes on your own opinion is just as valuable, perhaps more so than any others, experts or novice traders.

    Don’t Lose Sight Of Your Ultimate Goal:
    The ultimate goal of trading is to make money. There is no goal greater than this in trading. Though there are other benefits to trading self-satisfaction, competitiveness and the actual thrill, these are all secondary. If you seek revenge against the markets, other traders or merely want to compete for the sake of it, then the primary goal of speculating will be lost and so will your money.
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  5. #15
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Default EUR/USD Analysis

    EUR/USD 6 Auguts

    Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

    Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

    Key G7 support levels: 1.2960/80, 1.2920, 1.2660/70

    Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

    Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

    Today's trade suggestion:
    A messy old day on Friday (as expected on the last Friday of the month) saw some nasty whipsaws leaving the price essentially unchanged since Thursday. This week we are bullish yet again, with weekly support at 1.2860 and various support levels above there at 1.2960 and 1.2920. The strategy remains unchanged – but the euro into
    dips after a clear g7 entry signal with a target of 1.3100 and perhaps higher. A word of caution – the price has reached just shy of the weekly 38% retracement level (see weekly) chart, and the euro is more overbought than it has been since October 2009. This means we are possibly due for a sharp correction, which could take us below the weekly trend reversal level in quick time.

    Update: A messy week, with whipsaws yesterday and no real direction. Still, we managed a good profit from the euro in session, and we’ll continue to look to buy dips to support. It’s NFP Friday so I won’t be trading until possibly after the NFP news is released.

    Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a sudden pullback as far as 1.2500. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

    EUR/USD Hourly chart:
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  6. #16
    krak3n is offline Member
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    Default

    Hello, I am considering buying the greenback, since the release of Unemployment Claims on Thursday is forecasted to show a decline, and might trigger in risk aversion… What do you think about this?

  7. #17
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Default EUR\USD Analysis 11 August

    Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

    Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3040

    Key G7 support levels: 1.3100, 1.3040/50

    Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

    Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

    Today's trade suggestion:
    August chop already seems to have set in, with Friday’s NFP gains already wiped out, and nasty swings yesterday. We haven’t managed to get into any Euro trades this week so far, and just as well – bullish attempts would have been stopped out. For today, we’ll look to buy the euro into dips with just two support levels left beneath us: 1.3100 (yesterdays support low) and 1.3040/50 (the weekly reversal level and the 78.6% retracement of the last swing rally) Be careful of whipsaw, and don’t be in a rush to enter this market today. With over 300 pips in the bank already this month, I am willing to be VERY patient.

    Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal. If we drop below the weekly reversal level at 1.3040. Stay out.

    EUR/USD Hourly chart:
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  8. #18
    Traders-Live is offline Member
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    Default Friday the 13th

    OK, so it's Friday 13th, and just like any other day, the sun will rise, the coffee will be hot, the traffic will be sh*t and we'll all go out for drinks after work...

    Problem is, the markets don't know that everything should be normal today. Some of the dice rollers at the top of the food chain will believe that today is either lucky or unlucky (depending on what their grandmothers taught them)

    Superstition does strange things to markets. And we are in the middle of the vacation period, so things are jittery enough already.

    Combine superstition with thin markets and Friday afternoon drinking, and you get a nasty trading market. On top of that, the euro and the pound have reversed their weekly directions, and are theoretically "no-go zones"

    I am already way over my monthly target for August - surprisingly, as August can be crappy - and I won't be trading today. I'll let the gamblers have their turn, whilst I calmly whistle around my office, listen to music and make tea.

    I'd recommend you do the same. There's plenty of money to be made next week. And the week after. And the week after....

    Have a great weekend, and go have some fun. Forget about trading for a couple of days. If you haven't got anything else to do, take up carpet bowls, pet-rock painting or ornithology. Whatever.

    Over and out
    [COLOR="Blue"][URL="http://www.traders-live.com/blog/"][B][U]Traders-Live[/U][/B][/URL][/COLOR]

  9. #19
    nadir fx is offline Junior Member
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    Aug 2010
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    1

    Default scalping

    hi im new to forex, do you think i should try scalping for trading currencies

  10. #20
    SamuelClark is offline Junior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Miami, FL
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    1

    Default

    You guys sure know your stuff- I am only a beginner and I must say it took me a while to read all this.. Next step is try to understand LOL
    Best of luck
    [URL="http://www.google.com/profiles/Samuel.Clark.SC"]Samuel C[/URL]

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