Updating time : 17/06/2008 00:04 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.5467... Euro opened higher in NZ y'day morning n retreated to 1.5345 in early European trading b4 rallying to 1.5519 as the strg eurozone inflation data combined with weak U.S. empire state manufacturing index increased speculation of an early rate hike by the ECB (whilst Fed may keep its rate policy on hold). The single currency retreated in U.S. session on profit taking.

Although y'day's rally indicates the rise fm last Thurday's low at 1.5303 to retrace recent decline fm 1.5844 may extend marginally abv 1.5519 twd 1.5530/40, anticipated o/bot readings on hourly stochastics (currently at 74) shud limit gain to 1.5560 (1.618 times ext. of 1.5303-1.5436 measured fm 1.5345) n yield a retreat later. Only abv 1.5587 wud abort weekly bearish expectation of a resumption of the decline fm this year's record top at 1.6020.

On the downside, below 1.5411 (61.8% r of 1.5345-1.5519 n 50% r of 1.5303-1.5519) wud signal top has been formed n bring weakness to 1.5360/70 n then re-test of 1.5345, however, below 1.5285/1.5303 is needed to confirm aforesaid fall fm 1.6020 has 'finally' resumed...