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Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

  1. #101
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 17, 2011

    The GBP/JPY is developing subwave C (colored magenta in the chart) of daily impulse wave C - colored royal blue in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43.
    Resistances:
    - 132.23 = objective point (OP)
    - 132.35 = contracted objective point (COP)
    If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.43-131.82, 128.29-131.82.
    Supports:
    - 131.13 = .50 retracement
    - 130.96 = .618 ret
    - 130.47 = .382 ret
    - 130.06 = .50 ret
    - 129.64 = .618 ret

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now moving up from below the zero level and from .382 retracement 131.29. Therefore it's better to wait until the price retraces at least to 131.29 support to open long positions.

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  2. #102
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    AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 17, 2011

    The AUD/USD is developing subwave B (colored red in the chart) within corrective wave B of medium term downtrend - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9803-1.0019, 0.9540-1.0255, and expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0019, 1.0019-0.9950-0.9986, 0.9986-0.9855-0.9919.
    Supports:
    - 0.9854 = .764 retracement, the price reversed just within 1 pip
    - 0.9838 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 0.9805 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
    If the price breaks below 0.9803 then wave 0.9803-1.0019 will be considered as finished and the targets of the downmove (wave C) will be the following:
    - 0.9788 = objective point (OP)
    - 0.9740 = COP
    - 0.9709-07 = confluence area of .764 retracement and expanded objective point (XOP)
    If the price breaks above 0.9919, the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0019-0.9855, 1.0255-0.9803.
    Resistances:
    - 0.9937 = .50 retracement
    - 0.9956 = .618 ret
    - 1.0029 = .50 ret
    - 1.0082 = .618 ret

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that medium term trend is down, it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator or its cross above the zero level to consider short positions. The oscillator is now below the zero level and going into the oversold area, which means that the market is a bit overextended to the downside and not suitable for shorts right now. Therefore wait until the oscillator crosses above the zero - which is 15-20 pips away, and only then start considering short positions.

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  3. #103
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    Fundamental Analysis, January 17, 2011


    Descents have been recorded this morning in Asia due to steps taken this weekend by China and Singapore in order to chill off the local markets, as well as renewed concerns over the European debt crisis, causing the Hong Kong stock exchange to weaken by 0.3% and the Shanghai exchange to take a 2.1% dive after the Chinese central bank raised bank capital requirements. The Singapore stock exchange droped 0.2%, while the Japanese Nikkei is trading unchanged.

    In the American macroeconomic sphere, the Consumer Price index climbed by 0.5% in December, the highest monthly climb since June 2009, due to a climb in energy prices. The core price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 0.1%. The rises in the CPI and core price index were in accordance with predictions. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke stated on this matter that he expects that inflation remains moderate, while the risk of deflation hitting the United States economy persists.

    Europe's chief statistics bureau announced that inflation in Germany – the largest economy in Europe – rose by 1.9% in December as opposed to November's 1.6%. This is the quickest climb since October 2008. That said, the concerns over the European debt crisis continue to burden the markets. The Euro traded this morning at a 0.5% decline against the United States dollar, to a rate of 1.3330 United States dollars for one Euro. Today the European finance ministers are expected to meet and discuss dealing with the crisis. Last Friday Greece lost its last investment rating, having been downgraded by one level by the Fitch ratings agency, and reaching the level of BB+, considered a 'junk bond' level.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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    EUR/USD Corrective Movement, Janaury 17, 2011 (Weekly Strategy)








    EUR/USD

    The 1.3380 resistance level is a real test for the Euro – United States dollar pair on its way towards the previous highs around 1.4000. For now, the pair has entered an especially narrow shuffle, which may end in an upwards breach, first towards near resistance level of 1.3620, and later up to the resistance level and exit goal of 1.3970. A close above the 1.3390 level will form a buy trigger.

    The possibility for worsening of the European debt crisis exists. Such development would lead to a new wave of downwards movement, expected to bring the Euro – United States dollar pair back towards the 1.3060 support level. This level is low enough for collecting the pair and entering a buy position, while a stop loss order may be placed at 1.2800 United States dollars for one Euro.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com







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    GBP/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 17-January 21, 2011


    _____WEEKLY______
    Weekly - R3 = 1.6424
    Weekly - R2 = 1.6155
    Weekly - R1 = 1.6010
    Weekly Pivot = 1.5741
    Weekly - S1 = 1.5596
    Weekly - S2 = 1.5327
    Weekly - S3 = 1.5182






    _____MONTHLY______
    Monthly - R3 = 1.6451
    Monthly - R2 = 1.6180
    Monthly - R1 = 1.5885
    Monthly Pivot = 1.5614
    Monthly - S1 = 1.5319
    Monthly - S2 = 1.5048
    Monthly - S3 = 1.4753





    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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  4. #104
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 17-January 21, 2011



    _____WEEKLY_______
    Weekly - R3 = 1.4193
    Weekly - R2 = 1.3824
    Weekly - R1 = 1.3606
    Weekly Pivot = 1.3237
    Weekly - S1 = 1.3019
    Weekly - S2 = 1.2650
    Weekly - S3 = 1.2432






    _____MONTHLY______
    Monthly - R3 = 1.4111
    Monthly - R2 = 1.3804
    Monthly - R1 = 1.3584
    Monthly Pivot = 1.3277
    Monthly - S1 = 1.3057
    Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
    Monthly - S3 = 1.2530





    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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    USD/CHF wave analysis for January 17, 2011








    During Friday the USD/CHF currency pair was trading in a quite narrow price range. At the same time, the Thursday’s low was broken, which can indicate complicating wave situation in the range of the wave of the whole corrective movement developed since January 11. It is worth mentioning that if the price resumes downside movement it can reach 0.9565 – 0.9540 corresponding with estimated correction level 50.0%.

    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  5. #105
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 18, 2011

    The AUD/USD is movign within corrective subwave B (colored orange red in the chart) of potential impulse wave C (colored red in the chart) of medium term uptrend. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0255-0.9803 and expansions off 0.9803-1.0019-0.9855, 0.9855-0.9967-0.9897.
    Resistances:
    - 1.0009 = objective point (OP)
    - 1.0029 = .50 retracement
    - 1.0071-78-82 = confluence area - OP, expanded objective point (XOP), .618 retracement
    if the price resumes the downtrend the nearest resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0255-0.9803-1.0019, 1.0019-0.9855-0.9967.
    Supports:
    - 0.9866 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 0.9803 = OP
    - 0.9740 = COP

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the price is moving in a flat and wave C of medium term uptrend is not yet confirmed, both the readings of the Detrended Oscillator can be used to take long and short positions. At this moment the price is in the overbought area, but it's better to combine this reading with the nearest Fib resistance, which is 0.9966 - this is the level to watch for topping signals.

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  6. #106
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - January 18, 2011

    The GBP/JPY has stalled in wave C of medium term uptrend (colored magenta in the chart). Now corrective subwave B is developing (colored red). Still, the targets of the upmove are Fibonacci expansions off 125.47-129.41-128.29, 128.29-131.40-130.43, 130.43-131.82-130.96.
    Resistances:
    - 131.82 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 132.23 = objective point (OP)
    - 132.35 = confluence area of COP and OP
    - 133.21 = expanded objective point (XOP)
    - 133.54 = OP
    If the price reverses down the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 130.43-131.82, 128.29-131.82.
    Supports:
    - 130.96 = .618 ret, hit precisely (!)
    - 130.47 = .382 ret
    - 130.06 = .50 ret
    - 129.64 = .618 ret

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the medium term trend is up it's preferable to take oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator to consider long positions. The oscillator is now above the zero level, therefore the current price is not suitable for long positions. Now it's better to wait until the price retraces in the oversold area (15 pips away) to consider long positions.

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  7. #107
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/GBP candlestick analysis (long term view)

    This week the EUR/GBP pair continued trading down after the rollback. Earlier the EUR/GBP dropped after it could not break the support level at 0.8650.
    As mentioned before, successful breakout of the support level near 0.8430-0.8450 targeted the pair to 0.8143.
    The view on the currency pair remains bearish as earlier the EUR/GBP has formed a combination of Bearish Engulfing candlesticks in a downward trend.
    In addition, the support level breakthrough at 0.8535 proves that this point of view is correct. Now the pair is likely to decline to 0.7750-0.7700.
    The downside movement is supported by the fact that this combination of candlesticks was formed near the upper line of the downward trend where the bulls could not solidify, the bears started increasing their influence and the rebound took place.
    It is worth pointing out that short positions should be closed in case of breakthrough of Fibonacci correction level 50.0, as it will mean that the downtrend is overcome and the currency pair will target to 0.98.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  8. #108
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    USD/JPY candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011

    The USD/JPY pair is testing the support level near 82.30-82.40. Another attempt was unsuccessful. At the moment the short-term viewpoint at the pair is still bullish.
    Earlier on a 4-hour graph the USD/JPY pair has formed Hammer candlestick, indicating upside movement. This candlestick shows that the currency pair was decreasing for several days, but rebounded near 80.93.
    This viewpoint is supported by the fact the pair has successfully broken the 23.6 Fibonacci correction level. Breakout of the resistance level 82.85 has targeted the pair to 84.50.
    However, if support level 80.93 is broken, long positions should be closed as a break of this level will cause the pair to decrease to 80.20.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  9. #109
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD candlestick analysis for January 18, 2011

    Earlier on a 4-hour graph the EUR/USD currency pair formed the Shooting Star candlestick, which is a downside signal. At the moment the pair is rolling back after a sharp downfall. However, the viewpoint to the pair is still bearish.
    This candlestick was formed amid sharp rollback of the 1.2869 level. However, the bears started increasing their influence near the resistance level 1.3497 (December 2010 high) and a rebound took place.
    Breakout of the Fibonacci level 23.6 will prove this viewpoint. In this case downside movement to the support level 1.3080, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located, should be expected.
    On the other hand, if the resistance level 1.3497 is broken, short positions should be closed as it will lead to an increase up to 1.3786.



    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  10. #110
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    Fundamental Analysis, January 18, 2011


    The main indexes of the Asian stock exchanges are traded with a neutral trend this morning. Rates rose this morning in Hong Kong while the Hang Seng Index gained 0.8%, in leading the real estate sector which is expected to register a nice rise in 2011. The Shanghai stock exchange is clouding the Asia trend, while the Chinese index is weakened by 0.3%. Tokyo registered a slight increase of 0.3% today while the Kospi Index in South Korea is now registering an 0.2% increase. The Australian index added 0.3%.
    Europe's stock exchanges closed yesterday with slight rate drops, due to the deliberations of the European Union's ministers of finance regarding the strategy to fight the continent's debt crisis. At the end of the trade day the London stock exchange dropped by 0.3%, Paris retreated by 0.2% and Frankfurt closed the German stock exchange without change.
    The European ministers of finance began just an hour ago deliberations regarding the strategy to battle the debt crisis in the area, following Germany's backing down somewhat from its objection to increasing the emergency fund and following Portugal's insistence that it can handle the crisis without receiving an aid package.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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    The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 18, 2011



    4-hour timeframe




    Overview:
    The euro is still developing a buy signal with target level at 1.3298; however, correction movement is continuing as well. The formed signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price got over the Ishimoku cloud. Thus, at the moment the first target for the upside movement is 1.3606 – the first resistance level. If this level is passed the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.3824. The upside movement continues while the price is above the Kijun-Sen(1.3210), if the price fixates below this line it is recommended to cut long positions. The Chinkou Span fixed above the price graph, which confirms the current buy signal and indicates bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines are narrowing and directed up, which indicates corrective movement as well. The MACD is descending, indicating the current corrective movement.


    Trading recommendations:
    Currently it is recommended to trade up with the target to 1.3606, and further to 1.3824. Stop Loss should be placed below 1.3210. Resume upward trading after the MACD reverses up.
    In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

    The chart annotation:
    Ichimoku indicator:
    Tenkan-sen — red line
    Kijun-Sen — blue line
    Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
    Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
    Chinkou Span — green line
    Bollinger Bands indicator:
    3 yellow lines
    MACD indicator:
    The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




    Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

    More analysis - at instaforex.com







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    USD/CAD Rebound,Upward Movement , Janaury 18, 2011 (Daily Strategy)






    USD/CAD

    The recent decrease wave encountered four trade days ago the strong support level of 0.9850 and since then the pair is having difficulty in breaking the level and continuing its journey south.
    It is recommended to make sure that on the daily closing the pair's price will be closed above the support level of 0.9850 to be on the safe side. Closing below this level will cancel the opportunity of buying immediately.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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    AUD/USD. Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points, For January 18 to January 21, 2011



    _____WEEKLY_______
    Weekly - R3 = 1.0219
    Weekly - R2 = 1.0119
    Weekly - R1 = 1.0003
    Weekly Pivot = 0.9903
    Weekly - S1 = 0.9787
    Weekly - S2 = 0.9687
    Weekly - S3 = 0.9571






    _____MONTHLY______
    Monthly - R3 = 1.1192
    Monthly - R2 = 1.0724
    Monthly - R1 = 1.0476
    Monthly Pivot = 1.0008
    Monthly - S1 = 0.9760
    Monthly - S2 = 0.9292
    Monthly - S3 = 0.9044





    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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