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Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

  1. #11
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    The GBP/USD wave analysis for December 22, 2010.








    The GBP/USD pair resumed the downside movement of the pound and passed the last Friday’s low, indicating the intention to extend the downward section initiated December 14. In the meantime, if this pair continues to decline, yesterday’s high will be interpreted as the 2nd wave of the future C. If so, yesterday’s ease has probably indicated the beginning of the 3rd wave in this C.

    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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    The EUR/USD technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 22, 2010





    Overview:
    Another correction started without even touching the first support level, which is indicated by MACD. The developed sell signal has target level of 1.2966. This signal is strong and confirmed since the Chinkou Span fixed below the price graph and the price managed to fixate below the Ishimoku cloud. But as mentioned before, correction movement is continuing, therefore it is not recommended to trade down until it ends. The first target for downside movement is 1.3047 – the first support level. If the first support level is passed the next target will be the second support level of 1.2907. The downside movement remains until the price is below the Kijun-Sen (1.3220), short positions should be closed if the price strengthens above this line. The Chinkou Span is below the price graph, thus confirming the current sell signal and indicates the bullish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the downwards movement, the lines are directed down and diverging. The MACD is ascending, thus point to the current correction movement.
    Trading recommendations:
    Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 1.3047, in case this level is passed the target will be 1.2907. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.3220. Short positions should be opened only if the MACD reverses down.
    In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



    The chart annotation:
    Ichimoku indicator:
    Tenkan-sen — red line
    Kijun-Sen — blue line
    Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
    Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
    Chinkou Span — green line
    Bollinger Bands indicator:
    3 yellow lines
    MACD indicator:
    The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




    Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



    More analysis - at instaforex.com


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    Fundamental Analysis, December 22, 2010




    The Asian stock markets have recorded index rises this morning due to the security situation calming down in Korea, as well as the positive trend on Wall Street. As such, Singapore's stock exchange strengthened by 0.3%, the Hong Kong stock exchange rose by 1.2%, the Seoul stock exchange climbed 0.9%, Taiwan grew by 0.5%, the Shanghai exchange advanced by 0.8%, whereas the Tokyo exchange increased by 1.3% after the Japanese central bank announced, as expected, that it will leave the interest rate unchanged, continuing to supply liquidity to the Japanese economy.

    In the American macroeconomic sphere, the ICSC and Goldman-Sachs have reported yesterday that retail sales in the United States rose last week by 4.2% as compared to the parallel week in 2009. We will note that today no major data is expected to be published.

    Oil closed on a two-year high, having climbed by 0.5% to 89.92 United States dollars per barrel of oil at the New York Commodities Exchange, the highest locking price since October 2008. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have climbed by 13%.

    Moody's credit rating agency announced yesterday that it is considering a possible downgrading of Portugal's credit rating. The agency stated that is may lower the rating, currently standing at A1, by a level or two, this due to concerns regarding Portugal's ability to raise money in the markets, as well as the uncertainty regarding economic growth due to its austerity plans.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010




    More analysis - at instaforex.com


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    NZD/USD (Daily Strategy), December 22, 2010









    NZD/USD

    On the technical level, the New Zealand dollar – United States dollar(NZD/USD) hit an interesting crossroads yesterday. On the one hand, the pair is on the verge of an upwards breakthrough of its minor trend line. On the other hand, it is on the verge of a downwards breakthrough of the meaningful support level 0.7360.

    The change in investor sentiment moves the chances towards an upwards breach of the trend line and a renewal of the upwards movement that is expected to continue all the way up until the resistance level that braked the pair's movement during the previous wave of upwards movement around 0.7850. To avoid a false breach it is best to condition deal entry to on a daily close over the trend line passing through 0.7470. On the other hand, a daily close under the 0.7340 support level may lead the pair south, towards the 0.7020 support levels.









    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com




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    AUD/CHF, Head and Shoulders Bullish Reversal Pattern, December 22, 2010 (Daily Strategy)










    AUD/CHF

    The short graph on the Australian dollar – Swiss franc pair is beginning to hint at the beginnings of a head and shoulders pattern. All that remains for the pattern to be complete is a short upwards movement towards the pattern's neckline around 0.9590. Those among us preferring risks can enter even at the present price levels, strengthening their position after the breach of the neckline.

    More conservative traders would be best to wait for a close over the 0.9600 neckline, and only then enter a buy deal with a first realization goal at 0.9700, and a second, final goal for full realization marked near the resistance level of 0.9830 Swiss francs for one Australian dollar.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010









    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  2. #12
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 22, 2010

    Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
    Resistance levels: 1.0167, 1.0290, 1.0380
    On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a rebound after it failed to break the support level 1.0212. Earlier the USD/CAD rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is also a bottom of a wide trading range.
    The uprising movement is supported by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks through the level of 1.0290, then this will lead to uprising movement with a target to 1.0380. The breakthrough of 1.0380 will mean that a pullback from 1.0680 ended and further advance should be expected. Moreover, a breakout of 1.0380 will indicate the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
    Nonetheless, a breakthrough of support level of 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach the 0.9930 level.
    In a midterm, the currency pair will probably remain within the bounds of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. In case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm the end of consolidation and that the downtrend from 1.3063 is breached. In this case it is forecasted that the USD/CAD will move up to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  3. #13
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 22, 2010
    Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
    Resistance levels: 1.0167, 1.0290, 1.0380
    On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is making a rebound after it failed to break the support level 1.0212. Earlier the USD/CAD rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is also a bottom of a wide trading range.
    The uprising movement is supported by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks through the level of 1.0290, then this will lead to uprising movement with a target to 1.0380. The breakthrough of 1.0380 will mean that a pullback from 1.0680 ended and further advance should be expected. Moreover, a breakout of 1.0380 will indicate the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
    Nonetheless, a breakthrough of support level of 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach the 0.9930 level.
    In a midterm, the currency pair will probably remain within the bounds of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. In case the reversal takes place, then the breakout of 1.0680 will confirm the end of consolidation and that the downtrend from 1.3063 is breached. In this case it is forecasted that the USD/CAD will move up to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  4. #14
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default Candlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for December 23

    On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has continued its downside movement with target to 1.5300. At present, the GBP/USD is bouncing off 1.5355. Earlier the pair dropped strongly after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
    The viewpoint is still bearish as the pair formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
    This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here, Further the bears started increasing their influence.
    A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.

    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  5. #15
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default Candlestick analysis of the GBP/USD for December 23

    On a 4-hour graph the GBP/USD has continued its downside movement with target to 1.5300. At present, the GBP/USD is bouncing off 1.5355. Earlier the pair dropped strongly after it failed to break out the resistance level of 1.5900.
    The viewpoint is still bearish as the pair formed the combination of candlesticks Bearish Engulfing which indicates the decline, confirmed further.
    This combination of candlesticks developed after the currency pair could not break through the resistance level near 1.6085-1.6096, which means that the bulls did not solidify here, Further the bears started increasing their influence.
    A breakthrough of 1.5841 means that this point of view is correct.

    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  6. #16
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 23, 2010

    AUD/USD has finished wave 4 (0.9995-0.9953) and is now moving within wave 5 of the medium term uptrend - colored red in the chart. Wave 5 consists of A-B-C subwaves with subwave C still developing - colored yellow in the chart.

    The targets above the current level are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9539-1.0031-0.9833 (waves A-B of larger degree), 0.9833-0.9930-0.9843 (waves 1-2), 0.9843-0.9995 (waves 3-4), 0.9953-1.0013-0.9987 (subwave A and B in 5).

    Resistances:

    - 1.0047 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and objective point (OP)
    - 1.0084 = expanded objective point (XOP)
    - 1.0097 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
    - 1.0105 = OP
    - 1.0137 = COP
    - 1.0144 = SXOP

    If the price reverses down for a correction the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up starting from 0.9953 - this wave is not developed yet.



    Overbought/Oversold

    Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use oversold readings of the Detrended Oscillator in conjunction with Fib supports. The oversold area is 20-25 pips away from the current price.

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  7. #17
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels, December 23, 2010

    GBP/JPY is developing wave C of medium term downtrend (colored magenta in the chart). Within this wave C there are A-B-C subwaves (colored red) with subwave C still developing. And there are 5 waves of still smaller degree in the latter C subwave - colored yellow in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci expansions off 133.03-130.75-131.61 (A-B waves), 131.61-129.55-130.30 (A-B subwaves), 130.30-129.23-129.72 (waves 1-2), 129.72-128.28-128.70 (waves 3-4).

    Supports:

    - 127.99-92 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP)
    - 127.81 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 127.26 = objective point (OP)
    - 126.97-92 = confluence area of XOP and super expanded objective point (SXOP)

    If the price reverses up its resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the downwave from 130.30 - this wave is not developed yet.

    Overbought/Oversold

    Assuming that the prevailing trend is up it's preferable to use overbought readings of the Detrended Oscillator in conjunction with Fib resistances. The overbought area is 30-40 pips away from the current price.


    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  8. #18
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default Candlestick analysis of the USD/CHF for December 23, 2010

    On a 4-hour graph the USD/CHF has successfully broken through the support level of 0.9559. As mentioned before, now downside movement targeted to 0.9462 should be expected.
    The viewpoint on the currency pair is still bearish as earlier the USD/CHF has formed the combination of candlesticks Falling Three Methods which indicates the downside movement.
    This combination of candlesticks shows that the USD/CHF was increasing during a couple of weeks, but the rebound took place after the USD/CHF failed to break out the level of 1.0066. This means that the bulls did not manage to solidify here and the bears started increasing their influence. The downside movement is supported by the fact that the currency pair broke through the line of the uptrend.
    A breakthrough of support level of 0.9850 confirms this point of view.
    It is recommended to place the stop-orders slightly above 0.9736 as the breakout of this level will target the currency pair to 0.9850.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  9. #19
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Default Technical analysis of the USD/CAD for December 23

    Support levels: 1.0000, 0.9980, 0.9930
    Resistance levels: 1.0212, 1.0290, 1.0380

    On a 4-hour graph the USD/CAD is rolling back after it failed to break through the resistance level of 1.0212. However, EMA (55) may support the pair. Earlier the USD/CAD has rebounded from the support level of 1.0000, which is a bottom of a wide trading range.
    The uprising movement is confirmed by the fact that on a 4-hour chart the MACD divergence appeared. As it was mentioned before, if the USD/CAD breaks out 1.0259, then this will lead to upside motion with the target to 1.0380. Further the breakout of 1.0380 will denote the end of a rollback and that further advance should be expected. Moreover, the breakthrough of 1.0380 will point to the formation of “Triple Bottom”.
    Nevertheless, the breakout of the support level near 0.9980-1.0000 will allow the pair to reach 0.9930.
    In a midterm the currency pair will probably remain within the limits of its wide range between 1.0000 and 1.0750-1.0850. Nonetheless, in case the reversal takes place, then the breakout will confirm that the consolidation ended and that the downtrend is broken through. In this case it is expected that the USD/CAD will move upside to the Fibonacci correction level 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 at 1.1866.

    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  10. #20
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    The USD/CHF technical analysis and trading recommendations for December 23, 2010








    Overview:
    It seems that franc started downside movement. New sell signal with 0.9423 target leve has been formed. The signal is strong and confirmed, as the Chinkou Span managed to fixate below the price chart and the price fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, now the first target of the downside movement is the second support level 0.9408. In case this level is passed the next target will be the third support level of 0.9255. The downside movement remains until the price is below the Kijun-Sen (0.9610), if the price fixates above this line it is advisable to cut short positions. The Chinkou Span is below the price curve, thus indicating the bearish sentiment and confirming the sell signal. The Bollinger Bands seem to show the beginning of downside trend, the lines are diverging and directed down. The MACD is descending indicating the downward movement.
    Trading recommendations:
    Currently it is recommended to trade down with the target to 0.9408, in case this level is passed the next target will be 0.9255. Stop Loss should be placed above the Kijun-Sen (0.9610). In case the MACD reverses up short positions should be cut manually.


    In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.



    The chart annotation:
    Ichimoku indicator:
    Tenkan-sen — red line
    Kijun-Sen — blue line
    Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
    Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
    Chinkou Span — green line
    Bollinger Bands indicator:
    3 yellow lines
    MACD indicator:
    The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.



    Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com



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    Fundamental Analysis, December 23, 2010



    The national office of statistics in Britain has announced yesterday that the country's GDP rose in the third quarter by 0.7% as compared to the second quarter. Growth had been more moderate than preliminary estimates of a 0.8% growth, as well as economists' predictions of a 0.8% increase. Europe's stock exchanges, having recovered all the declines they incurred due to the collapse of the American Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008, had closed yesterday on a mixed trend, with the London exchange locking at a 0.6% rise, the Frankfurt exchange retreating by 0.1%, and Paris declining by 0.2%

    A mixed trend with a tendency for index rises has been recorded this morning in the Asian stock markets, led by the stock of the commodities sector, after the price of oil approached 90 United States dollars per barrel of oil. The growth has also been influenced by the index rises recorded on Wall Street yesterday. Therefore, the Seoul stock exchange declines by 0.4%. The Hong Kong stock exchange climbs by 0.2%, and the Taiwan stock exchange strengthens by 0.2% as well. Due to a Japanese holiday, trade will not be conducted today at the Tokyo stock exchange.

    In the macroeconomic sphere, the United States Department of Commerce reported yesterday that the American GDP grew in the third quarter at an annualized rate of 2.6%, higher growth than expected according to preliminary data published in the previous month, pointing to a 2.5% growth. That said, growth was more moderate than predicted by economists, who predicted a 2.9% growth in the third quarter.

    More from the macroeconomic sphere: the real estate agents' association announce yesterday that existing home prices rose 5.6% in November as compare to the previous month, to an annualized rate of 4.68 million homes. Growth was slightly higher than analysts' predictions of an annualized rate of 4.66 million homes in November, as compared to an annualized rate of 4.43 million homes in October. Still, the sales rate is lower by 27.9% from the rate for November 2009.

    .

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010


    More analysis - at instaforex.com


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    CHF/JPY, Signs of Reversing the Downward Trend, December 23, 2010 (Daily Strategy)






    CHF/JPY

    The Swiss Frank – Japanese Yen is beginning to show signs of tiredness over everything related to its bullish trend that had brought it yesterday to a new high around the strong resistance level of 88.00. The pair's failure to breach the resistance level, in combination with the negative deviation developing between the price movement and the MACD indicator, lead us to estimate that the pair is headed south.

    A final confirmation for a trend reversal and a new wave of downwards movement will be received only after the pair breaches the bottom of the shuffle pattern it entered during last week, around 86.15. The first support level, expected to stall the negative momentum, should such a thing appear, will be poised around 84.15, while the meaningful support level around 82.15 will serve us as a final goal for a complete exit from the sell position.


    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010



    More analysis - at instaforex.com

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