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Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

  1. #2601
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Weak indicators of GDP growth in the Eurozone put pressure on the euro

    The Eurozone's weak economic growth, along with the slowdown in its flagship German economy, has affected the sentiment of traders who are rushing to lock in long positions in the European currency after the recent corrective growth.

    According to the Federal Bureau of statistics, German economic growth slowed in the 1st quarter of 2018. As noted in the report, one of the reasons for the slowdown was a series of strikes that swept through Germany. Thus, GDP growth in annual terms was at 1.2% against 2.5% in the 4th quarter of 2017. Economists also predicted a slowdown in the German economy in the 1st quarter.

    According to the Bureau of statistics, France's GDP growth for 2017 was revised to 2.2%, from 2%, as previously reported. Good GDP growth was recorded in the 1st quarter in Spain, which partly offset the fall in the overall indicator for the Eurozone.

    According to the report of the statistical Agency Eurostat, the growth rate of economic activity slowed. Thus, the Eurozone economy in the 1st quarter of 2018 grew by only 0.4% compared to the previous quarter after an increase of 0.7% in the 4th quarter of last year. These data fully coincided with the preliminary forecast, as well as with the expectations of economists.



    As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the bearish scenario continues to work out. The breakthrough of support at 1.1890, from which the euro continued to grow on Friday, could lead to a number of new short positions and a further decline of the euro towards the low of 1.1850 and 1.1820

    The British pound did not receive much support after the publication of the report on the labor market, which indicated that from January to March this year, unemployment in the UK remained at its minimum level.

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment remained at 4.2 percent, while the number of unemployed in the UK decreased by 46,000 during the reporting period.

    Despite this, the pound continues to decline, moving towards the lower border of the side channel, which was formed after the decision of the Bank of England on interest rates last week in the level of 1.3460.

    Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also came out in the first half of the day, which indicated that industrial production in China in April of this year increased by 7.0% compared to the same period last year after an increase of 6.0% in March. Economists had expected production to grow by 6.4 percent.

    aRetail sales in China rose only 9.4% in April, following a 10.1% increase in March compared to the same period last year. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in April.

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  2. #2602
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for May 17, 2018



    The GBP/JPY at 4-Hour Charts seem already making higher highs and higher lows after the MACD Divergence with the price but this pair now getting struggles with the Support Become Resistance level at 149.11 events now this pair already breakout above those level now the GBP/JPY must test the 149.11 level first as their new Support before they can go up, this condition already confirmed by the William %R(14) already at Overbought side. So this pair in a short time manner will be going down to test the 149.11 level.

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  3. #2603
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for May 18, 2018

    EUR/JPY
    There are still mixed signals in the market. The EMA 11 is slightly below the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is slightly above the level 50. It may be prudent to stay away from this market until there would be a directional movement in it.



    At least, in the short-term, nothing has really changed in this market. The price plummeted on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday, to test the demand zone at 129.50. After that, a rally effort was made, which made price rose by 110 pips, thereby frustrating the bears. Investors may want to wait until there is a directional movement in the market.

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  4. #2604
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Technical analysis of Gold for May 21, 2018

    Gold price is breaking down below the recent $1,285-$1,295 consolidation. Gold price could see $1,270-75, but the bearish divergence signs continue to warn us that the next big move will be to the upside. I'm a buyer of Gold at the current or lower levels.

    Blue lines - bullish divergence warning
    Green lines - target levels
    Yellow line - medium-term resistance
    Red line - short-term resistance

    Short-term resistance is at $1,292. I expect Gold price to soon break above it and move towards our first targets of $1,302-$1,304. Next important resistance is at $1,310-13 where I can see the next big trend test. With a break above this level, the price will move towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A weekly close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will open the way for a bigger move towards $1,425. Gold is at its final stages of the move from the $1,365 level.

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  5. #2605
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Pound returns to politics

    Quotes of the GBP/USD slumped to a five-month low as it came under fire on three sides. The lack of a unified position within the conservative party on the basic principles of Brexit has revived political risks, negative statistics on the U.K. continues to reduce the likelihood of tightening the monetary policy of the Bank of England in 2018, and, finally, the unrestrained growth of the yield of Treasury bonds pushes up the US dollar. Such an unfavorable background makes the position of the sterling extremely vulnerable, but Forex is good because the situation can be turned upside down in a matter of moments.

    Unexpected comments by Theresa May that Britain will still come out of the Customs Union, became a verdict for the pound. A week ago, the market was walking directly opposite rumors, which at that time had some support for the "bulls" on the GBP/USD. Even for a little while. The Prime Minister said that there is no reason for a second referendum on Scotland's independence, although in the North of the United Kingdom there are quite different sentiments. In general, the divide is felt in all politics, not only in the conservative party, which plays against sterling.

    The futures market is on the verge of abandoning the idea of raising the REPO rate by 25 bp in 2018. Previously, there was confidence in two acts of monetary tightening, and after the May meeting of the Bank of England, the likelihood of a hike in August were regarded as a fifty-fifty. However, the busy economic calendar for the week to May 25 a priori nominates the pound for the title of the most interesting currency of the five-day period. Bloomberg analysts expect to see April inflation and GDP for the first quarter at the same levels of +2.5% yoy and +0.1% q/q, and also forecast a slowdown in retail sales to a six-month low. At the same time, the BoE in its most recent accompanying documents noted that the second assessment of January-March, in fact, is likely to be the best. If inflation also begins to move away from the target in the direction of 3%, the idea of two acts of monetary tightening in 2018 will rise from the ashes. And if so, then the "bulls" on the GBP/USD after long ordeals will still feel the ground beneath their feet.

    Dynamics of the British inflation



    The reason for their optimism can be slowed down and finally, the US dollar. Despite the fact that the news of a truce in the trade war between Beijing and Washington in the form of a temporary cancellation of tariffs for $150 billion imports has benefited the yield of Treasury bonds, however, Bloomberg's median forecast of 3.19% at the end of the year is already close, and the stabilization of the indicator will somewhat curb the enthusiasm of bulls in the USD index. In addition, after a continuous 4-week rally, some of them will probably want to lock in the profit.

    Technically, a clear implementation of the "Broadening Wedge" pattern brought the pair's quotes beyond the upward trading channel, and the "bears" - to the operational space, and brought them closer to the target by 88.6% in the "Double Top" pattern at arm's length. It corresponds to the level of 1.32.

    GBP/USD daily chart



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  6. #2606
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    Daily analysis of USDX for May 23, 2018

    The index managed to make a retracement from the Monday's highs, but the 200 SMA remains as a dynamic support in the short-term, where also it has formed a fractal. We should remind that a breakout above 94.10 can open the doors for a testing of the 94.88 level. However, a breakout below the 200 SMA on H1 chart should strengthen the bearish bias.



    H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.10 / 94.88
    H1 chart's support levels: 93.12 / 92.33

    Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.10, take profit is at 94.88 and stop loss is at 93.30. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  7. #2607
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Euro and pound fall due to weak data

    Data released in the first half of the day on the economy of the euro area and the UK exerted serious pressure on the euro and the British pound, allowing US dollar buyers to further increase their long positions before the publication of the Federal Reserve's protocols, from which many are waiting for signals in the direction of further interest rates .

    In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate in France rose, indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the euro-zone economy in 2018. According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the unemployment rate in France in the first quarter of this year rose to 9.2% from 9.0% in the fourth quarter of last year. This happened because of a sharp slowdown in the economy earlier this year.

    The euro collapsed after a report came out indicating that the growth of business activity in the euro area in May this year, contrary to all forecasts of economists and ECB representatives, slowed for the fourth consecutive month.

    According to a report by research company IHS Markit, the preliminary composite index of supply managers for the euro area in May 2018 was 54.1 points, while economists expected the index to be at 54.8 points.It is important to note that a value above 50 points still indicates an increase in activity.



    This slowdown is not surprising. For example, in Germany, the preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in May fell to 56.8 points against 58.1 points in May, while it was projected at 57.5 points. The index for the service sector fell to 52.1 points in May against 53.0 points in April.

    In general, the composite PMI of Germany dropped to 53.1 points in May, while in April of this year, it was at the level of 54.6 points.

    France too, failed to please with good results.

    The preliminary composite index of supply managers of the PMI of France fell to 54.5 points in May against 56.9 points in April this year.

    As noted above, the British pound went to update the monthly lows paired with the US dollar after it became clear that the annual inflation in the UK in April this year dropped to the lowest level in more than a year.

    According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose only by 2.4% in April this year compared with the same period last year. In March, growth was at 2.5%.

    The main reason for the decline in prices, as noted in the ONS report, is the drop in prices for air tickets.

    All the data fully coincided with the forecast of economists.

    The reaction of the Bank of England, most likely, will not take long. In the near future, representatives of the Central Bank will make a number of statements, based on today's data, and most likely, they will not like the buyers of the British pound slightly.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  8. #2608
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 25, 2018



    EUR/NZD is now in its final stages of the wave c/ of ii/. Ideally, we will see a minor dip closer to support near 1.6806 before the wave ii/ is complete, but we would not be surprised to see a premature low form for a new rally higher through minor resistance at 1.6958 and, more importantly, above resistance at 1.7061 confirming that the wave iii/ higher to test important resistance at 1.7300 is developing.

    R3: 1.7061
    R2: 1.6981
    R1: 1.6958
    Pivot: 1.6915
    S1: 1.6883
    S2: 1.6846
    R3: 1.6806

    Trading recommendation: We are looking for a EUR-buying opportunity at 1.6815 or upon a break above 1.6960.

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  9. #2609
    andengireng is offline Senior Member
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    GBPAUD today the big trend is downtrend, so you can sell it at resistance area 1.76503 with potential target up to 1.75968. But be careful if resistance 1.77396 breaks, it will turn the daily bias as bullish and will bring GBP AUD up to 1.78510

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