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Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

  1. #2631
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Brent disobeyed the president

    Interruptions in supplies in Libya, Venezuela, Canada and Norway, Iran's threats to block the Strait of Hormuz, and some weakness of the US dollar after the release of the US labor market report for June allowed the bulls for Brent and WTI to continue the rally. If oil can update the May highs, the road in the direction of $ 83-85 per barrel will be opened. According to Tehran, the aim of restraining the price of black gold tweets of Donald Trump, in fact, can bring the North Sea grade to the psychologically important mark of $ 100 per barrel. Who is bigger? Sanford C. Bernstein & Co draws attention to the reduction in oil companies' stocks by an average of 30% since the beginning of 2000 and the increase in urban population in Asia by 1 billion over the next two decades. As a result, the demand for cars and gasoline will rise sharply, which will launch a new super cycle on black gold and allow it to grow to $ 150 per barrel.

    The US president demands from his military allies (primarily from Saudi Arabia) to increase production to 2 million bpd, knowing full well that the OPEC decisions on the curtailment of the production of "bulls" for Brent and WTI at the end of June cannot be stopped. The states are exerting pressure on buyers of Iranian oil, and if their plan to reduce exports from this Middle Eastern country translates into life, then the market will take 2.5 million bpd. Tehran is the fifth oil producer in the world with a production volume of 3.8 million bpd. The country's leadership claims that it is ready to sell as much black gold as it can.

    The support of Brent and WTI is provided by the factor of production reduction in Libya from 1.28 million bpd in February to the current 527 thousand bpd. According to Capital Economics estimates, the market may lose about 2 million bpd from Iran and 1 million bpd from Venezuela, which will widen the deficit and help develop the "bullish" conjuncture of the black gold market.

    At first glance, instead of putting pressure on OPEC, Donald Trump could spur the activity of American producers. For a long time, the oil market was living in tug-of-war conditions between those working on reducing the cartel's output and companies from the States that used price increases to hike their own production and simultaneously hedge the risks. They let the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes grow (+5 to 863 in the week of July 6), and the Energy Information Administration forecasts an increase in production to a record 11.8 million bpd, no problems with the infrastructure have been canceled. For example, in the Perm basin in 2019 will produce 1 million bpd more than its pipes can afford to pump.

    Extraction and power of pipelines



    The hand to help the "bulls" for Brent and WTI is fixing profit to the US dollar after the publication of disappointing statistics on US unemployment and the average wage. The first indicator increased from 3.8% to 4%, the second did not reach the forecasts of experts from Bloomberg (+ 0.2% vs. + 0.3% m / m)

    Technically, a breakthrough of resistance at $ 79.5 and $ 80.5 per barrel will open the "bulls" along Brent road to the north in the direction of the target for 127.2% and 161.8% for the AB = CD pattern.

    Brent, daily chart



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  2. #2632
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    Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 12, 2018



    Technical outlook:

    The hourly EUR/USD chart presented here indicates that the currency pair is dropping in a corrective manner since printing highs at the 1.1790 levels recently. At this point in time, prices are finding support at a past resistance turned support zone around the 1.1660/70 levels. According to the Fibonacci extensions displayed here, it remains quite possible for the pair to drop through the 1.1650/30 levels to find further support before turning higher. The price support is seen at the 1.1590 levels, followed by the 1.1530 levels, respectively, while interim resistance is seen at the 1.1790 levels. Most probable direction is to push higher at least one last time towards 1.1850 and above, before reversing lower again. Please note that in the medium term, till the prices remain below the 1.2150 levels, bears shall be in complete control.

    Trade plan:

    Aggressive traders, now look to buy again between the 1.1630/60 levels, with stop below 1.1550 and target above 1.1850.

    Fundamental outlook:

    Watch out for USD CPI at 0800 AM EST today.

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  3. #2633
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    Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 13, 2018



    Overview: The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6840 (23.6% of Fibonacci retracement). This week (from 9 to 13 July 2018), the pair has dropped from the level of 0.6840 to trade around the 0.6775 level. This level of 0.6840 coincides with the major resistance today. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6840 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6840/0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6843, then this scenario may be invalidated.


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  4. #2634
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    Technical analysis of Bitcoin For July 16, 2018



    The Bitcoin at the 4-hour charts looks clearly moving in a Bearish bias. This can be confirmed by the price still moving in a down slope channel and the Exponential Moving Average period 21 still bellow the Linear Weighted Moving Average period 55, as long as the price does not break out and close above the 6,360.51, it is highly likely the bias from this cryptocurrency will still be in a Bearish condition.

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  5. #2635
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 17, 2018



    When the European market opens, there's no Economic Data will be released from the Euro Zone, but The US will release the Economic Data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, and Capacity Utilization Rate, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1767.
    Strong Resistance:1.1760.
    Original Resistance: 1.1749.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1738.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1710.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1682.
    Original Support: 1.1671.
    Strong Support: 1.1660.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1653.

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  6. #2636
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    Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, July 18, 2018



    In Asia, Japan today will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data such as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Resistance. 3: 113.54.
    Resistance. 2: 113.32.
    Resistance. 1: 113.10.
    Support. 1: 112.82.
    Support. 2: 112.60.
    Support. 3: 112.38.

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  7. #2637
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 19, 2018



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1701.
    Strong Resistance:1.1694.
    Original Resistance: 1.1683.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1672.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1644.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1616.
    Original Support: 1.1605.
    Strong Support: 1.1594.
    Breakout SELL Level: 1.1587.

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  8. #2638
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    Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 20, 2018



    When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US today will not release any Economic Data, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

    TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
    Breakout BUY Level: 1.1711.
    Strong Resistance:1.1704.
    Original Resistance: 1.1693.
    Inner Sell Area: 1.1682.
    Target Inner Area: 1.1654.
    Inner Buy Area: 1.1625.

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  9. #2639
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    Mr. Trump Against All



    Mr. Trump is against everyone.
    In recent weeks:

    Trump with a scandal held a meeting with the "Big Seven", refusing to sign under a general statement. His statements to the head of Canada were in fact insults. The meeting of the "Seven" was a series of attacks by Trump on the Allies - Europe (especially Germany), Canada.

    Trump took part in the NATO meeting, where he struck everyone with the demand to immediately increase defense spending of the participating countries to 4% - despite the fact that the goal of 2% is quite difficult to achieve. Trump again attacked Germany and Merkel - for low defense spending.

    Trump visited Britain and criticized Prime Minister May's plan for a "soft Brexit" plan, on which the May government's survival depends.

    Trump makes it clear that he considers the EU to be a harmful, unnecessary structure. He offers France to leave the EU.

    Trump is attacking China, raising the stakes in the trade war - on Friday he promised to extend new duties on almost all the goods coming to the US from China - to an amount of $500 billion. This will undoubtedly have a noticeable impact on inflation in the US, businesses related to the United States - not to mention the retaliatory measures on the part of China. A very likely consequence will be a sharp cooling down of China-US political relations - these relations have been very friendly since 1978 (!)

    In general, it is the US-China trade war that Trump is unleashing right before our eyes - that is the biggest risk for the world economy, and more than the economy.

    Trump is attacking the EU on trade issues - demanding to introduce duties on cars from the EU is a blow to Germany. Paradoxically,
    Trump is counting on Europe's support in the trade war against China.

    Earlier, Trump withdrew from the "nuclear deal" with Iran - while Europe for the continuation of relations with Iran.

    Trump attacked his own special services, saying that he did not trust their investigations into Russia's interference in US elections. Then he refuted his words. And then he said he didn't trust them again.

    Finally, Trump attacked the Fed, condemning the decision to raise rates. He accused the US central bank that raising the Fed's rate hinders economic growth in the US and strengthens the dollar, which makes US debt (more than $20 trillion) more expensive and helps US competitors - China and Europe - in trade, increasing the US trade deficit.

    Trump made this statement on Thursday, and despite criticism that Trump attacks the independence of the US Central Bank, and his statement that he respects the Fed's independence and personally Powell, the head of the Fed, - on Friday Trump reiterated his criticism.

    Perhaps the only person Trump talked about sympathetically in recent weeks is Russian President Putin. Trump, after a meeting in Helsinki with Putin, soon invited the Russian president to the United States for a visit. This, of course, only added fuel to the fire of Trump's criticism.

    Trump announced that China and the ECB specifically pursue a policy of undervaluing their currencies against the dollar, thereby damaging the US in trade. The market started talking about "currency wars".

    This is it. The only thing that can be said: "The more fronts on which the commander is at war, the less chance he has to win."

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  10. #2640
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    Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 24, 2018



    We continue to look for more upside pressure through resistance at 1.7268 and more importantly through resistance at 1.7305, that calls for red wave iii towards 1.7505 on the way higher towards 1.8381.

    Support is now seen at 1.7206 and again at 1.7170. Ideally the later will be able to protect the downside for the expected break above 1.7268.

    R3: 1.7305
    R2: 1.7268
    R1: 1.7232
    Pivot: 1.7208
    S1: 1.7184
    S2: 1.7164
    S3: 1.7144

    Trading recommendation:
    We are long EUR at 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.7268 and start by using the same stop at 1.7110.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

    Analysis are provided byInstaForex.
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