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Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

  1. #2921
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Control zones NZDUSD 11/11/19

    The downward movement of the pair is impulsive, as the pair has gone beyond the average weekly movement. This indicates a high likelihood of continued fall and an update of the monthly low. Sales will be profitable after the pair returns to the broken middle course zone. The lower boundary of this zone is at the level of 0.6354.



    Work in the downward direction will be a priority at the beginning of the new week. The first goal of the fall will be WCZ 1/2 0.6271-0.6265.

    A strong increase in demand is required to break the downward momentum, which will lead to the closure of trading on Monday to be above Friday's Asian session. This will indicate the emergence of a major player interested in the appreciation of the New Zealand dollar.



    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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  2. #2922
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Control zones USDJPY 11/18/19

    The pair tested the WCZ 1/2 108.48-108.38 last Thursday. Consolidation below the zone did not occur, therefore, the upward medium-term impulse remains a priority. The first growth target is the November high. Its achievement will make it possible to close part of the purchases and transfer the rest to breakeven.



    Closing Friday trades made it possible to form an absorption pattern of the daily level, which confirms the bullish momentum.

    Re-absorption of Friday purchases will be required to implement an alternative option. The probability of this is below 30%, which does not make it possible to consider sales. The main goal of the bullish impulse is the weekly control zone 110.15-109.94, which gives a favorable risk-to-profit ratio for any purchase made from current levels and below. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the possibility of adding to a long position.



    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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  3. #2923
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Trading idea for the AUD/USD pair

    Good evening, dear traders! The growth of AUD / USD is what is interesting today. As we remember, unemployment data was published in Australia last week on November 14, to which this instrument reacted negatively: the AUD/USD currency pair was declining throughout the whole day. An important detail is that during the fall, an important extreme at 0.6810 was updated. Thus, I believe that this was a culmination of the downward trend in November, and given the reaction of the Australian dollar to this week's news, I think that local growth is possible to the level of 0.6843, which is the news' high on Wednesday. Now, why exactly this level? It's simple - every seller who believes in a further fall of this instrument will clearly depend precisely on the news impulse on November 14, so the price can go there with a high degree of probability.

    [IMG]https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20191121/analytics5dd5cf772d1f3.png
    [/IMG]

    Recommendation: try to buy in order to update the level of 0.6943. At the same time, losses can be limited to the lowest level of 0.6788 - there is no sense in holding purchases below, and in case of updating this minimum, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid.

    Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

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  4. #2924
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Developing USD/CAD pair and trading idea

    During the previous recommendation on Friday,it is advised to develop the pair at least on a false breakdown of the level of 1.3269. Actually, this is exactly the outcome we are observing - on the news, this level was falsely broken, and thus, the recommendation completely justified itself. The plan was this:



    Thus far, the intrigue of the instrument continues. False news breakdown of this level provides a good opportunity for the development of further medium-term upward trend. Since the end of October, there has been a prolonged upward trend on for this instrument, and the probability of its continuation is still high. For this reason, there is another recommendation for the same instrument today. I believe that the development will continue to a minimum to the level of 1.3326. Therefore, you can try to buy with a goal of updating it, limiting the risks at the price of 1.3254, since it makes no sense to keep purchases below the news last Friday. Updating Friday's minimum - the bullish scenario will be completely canceled.



    Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

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  5. #2925
    IFX Gertrude is offline Senior Member
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    Take profit on AUD/USD pair

    Good evening, dear traders! Congratulations to those who took advantage of our trading idea for the AUD/USD pair, which was provided last November 25.

    Let me remind you that the idea was to develop the lower daily area in a downward trend:



    As you can see, the first goal is taken:



    The collapse did not follow, so I recommend taking profits.

    Good luck in trading and see you tomorrow morning!

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  6. #2926
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    Forecast for EUR/USD on November 28, 2019

    EUR/USD
    On Wednesday, US statistics continued to delight investors and markets swayed towards the dollar. The euro lost 22 points. GDP for the third quarter amounted to 2.1% against the expectation of 1.9%, the volume of orders for durable goods increased by 0.6% in October against the forecast of -0.5%,



    On the daily chart, the price went below the MACD indicator line. If today closes with a black candle, then the price will consolidate below it with the prospect of a medium-term decline. The immediate goal of this movement at 1.0925 is the lowest level of September 3 and 12. In the four-week period, the price of 1.0720/30 can be reached - the lower line of the blue price channel (visible on a very tight chart). The Marlin oscillator lies in the horizon in the negative trend zone, volatility is likely to be low in the thin market today.



    On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated under the blue line of MACD. The range between the levels of 1.0985-1.1026 is likely to be today (perhaps even tomorrow) a consolidation zone.

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  7. #2927
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    Why didn't the oil go upwards? Volume analysis for oil

    Good evening, dear traders! Yesterday, we gave a trading idea for the growth of oil but paid attention to the evening news on oil reserves in the United States. Let's analyze this situation on volumes.

    During the time of the opening of Europe, the price immediately went up and while it is on the way to the maximum of 58.74, there was another extremum - 58.56. At the breakdown of which, there was practically no doubt about the further increase in price. Looking at the chart, even the trend line up indicates purchases. However, It is very important that all this happened in the middle of the European session and before the release of the weekly news on Oil Reserves for about another 5 hours. That is, everyone only sees purchases.

    At the time of the opening of the American session, there was also no increase in prices. Although the upward trend still remained, which added confidence in the growth.

    In addition, at the time of the news release, summing up all mentioned above, the state of the price was such that all liquidity was not up, but, on the contrary, at the bottom with the nearest targets 58.13 and the American session of the previous day which is 57.76.



    Oil's approach to the maximum in Europe:



    Thus, the Europeans simply didn't have the courage to collect stocks before the reserves. Nevertheless, the stocks themselves came out large, which led to the sales of black gold.

    This analysis is based on the US oil futures.

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  8. #2928
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    Control zones for USD/CAD on 12/03/19

    During the second week, the pair is trading within the accumulation zone. This makes it possible to consider weekly extremes for finding entry points. The upper boundary is the maximum of the last week, which coincides with the Weekly Control Zone 1/2 1.3328-1.3319. Now, testing this zone will be decisive for the entire upward movement of the last month.



    Working within the framework of the flat implies partial consolidation of transactions during tests of significant extremes.

    An alternative model will be developed if the closure of today's trading occurs above the Weekly Control Zone 1/2. This will open the way for further growth. The nearest goal, in turn, will be the maximum of October. The test of which will increase the probability of a large offer.



    Daily CZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

    Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

    Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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  9. #2929
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    Oil kings can do everything?

    Oil is slowly recovering from a major sell-off on the last day of autumn. Taking advantage of the thin market after Thanksgiving, speculators decided to get rid of their long positions ahead of the December OPEC+ meeting. The simplest thing that the cartel and Russia can do is to prolong the agreement to reduce production by several months after March 2020. However, how will the market react to this? Isn't it better to avoid a massive sell-off before the results of the meeting are known?

    If speculators sold oil at the November 29 auction, before that, on the contrary, they were actively building up long positions. By the end of the week, November 26, WTI net-longs increased by 15%, gross longs increased by 12%, while shorts fell by 14%. Approximately the same numbers could be seen on Brent.

    Brent Speculative Dynamics



    It is peculiar that black gold was not moving in unison with US stocks at the turn of autumn and winter. The latter were marked by a serious collapse after the White House introduced duties on imports of steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, while oil grew in response to rumors of Saudi Arabia's desire to expand production cuts from 1.2 million bpd to 1.6 million bpd, at least until June 2020. Riyadh needs to carry out an initial public offering of shares in the state-owned company Aramco, the scale of which is estimated at approximately $25 billion. If Brent is listed below $60 per barrel, it is unlikely that buyers will grab paper of the oil company like hotcakes.

    However, according to Goldman Sachs, even if OPEC+ expands its obligations by 400 thousand bpd by the end of June 2020, this is unlikely to lead to a serious increase in prices. The bank predicts that North Sea-grade quotes will dangle around $60 per barrel for most of next year.

    Oil support is provided by the first growth above the critical level of 50 in business activity in China's manufacturing sector since April. China is the largest consumer of black gold in the world, and an increase in demand of 64 thousand bpd in the third quarter is good news for Brent bulls and WTI. Moreover, the IEA predicts that the figure will reach a record high of 13.6 million bpd in 2020. I have no doubt that this will be so if the trade war between Washington and Beijing does not become history. Otherwise, weak global demand will continue to put downward pressure on black gold prices.

    At the same time, the growth of shale production in the United States significantly affects the market balance. In September, the United States closed a full month as a net exporter of black gold for the first time since 1940. Its deliveries abroad exceeded imports by 89 thousand bpd. It is Interesting that the last time the value of net imports exceeded 12 million was ten years ago.

    Technically, without leaving Brent quotes beyond the downward trading channel, the implementation of the Double Bottom pattern can be forgotten. On the contrary, a breakthrough of support at $56 per barrel, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the triangle, the risks of a downward trend recovery will increase.

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  10. #2930
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    Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2019

    USD/JPY

    The information received yesterday from the headquarters of the US and Chinese negotiators on trade encouraged the markets - representatives of the parties allowed the conclusion of the first phase of the deal until December 15, before the date of the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods. The US S&P 500 index gained 0.63%, Nikkei 225 is currently up 0.70% and China A50 grew 0.36%. The price turned from the achieved first bearish goal - from the enclosed line of the price channel, a little short of the MACD line. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in the negative trend zone, growth could continue, but still within the correction.



    The correction can continue to the range of 109.30/50 (highs of October 30 and November 7), going over the range will mean the correction will go into a trend growth, the target will be the line of the green price channel in the region of 109.95. Leaving prices at yesterday's low opens the next bearish target at 107.57 - the intersection of the lines of the red and green price channels.



    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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