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Thread: InstaForex Wave Analysis

  1. #501
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    CHF/JPY Bearish Outlook, May 04, 2011 (Daily Strategy)







    CHF/JPY

    The Swiss franc – Japanese yen pair is facing its weekly resistance, but their path to

    the upside is very difficult because it about 0.9500 is a strong resistance signaling a

    sell opportunity in a short position with great potential for a drop of, at the minimum,

    250 points. For the most part, the franc – yen pair is traded with a positive correlation

    to financial markets so that the continuation of the current wave of drops is expected to

    negatively influence the pair.

    Our short term objective we can locate around of the first monthly support 90.20 and in

    the long term, the second monthly support around 89.00 yens per Swiss franc.It is important

    to point out that the short opportunity mentioned above is based on a strong negative

    deviation on the MACD index and the negative sentiment that has been the order of the day

    for the markets recently.



    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

    More analysis - at

    instaforex.com





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    CHF/JPY Bearish Outlook, May 04, 2011 (Daily Strategy)





    CHF/JPY

    The Swiss franc – Japanese yen pair is facing its weekly resistance, but their path to the

    upside is very difficult because it about 0.9500 is a strong resistance ,signaling a sell

    opportunity in a short position with great potential for a drop of, at the minimum, 250

    points, For the most part, the franc – yen pair is traded with a positive correlation to

    financial markets so that the continuation of the current wave of drops is expected to

    negatively influence the pair.

    Our short term objective we can locate around of the first monthly support 91.20 and in

    the long term, the second monthly support around 89.00 yens per Swiss franc. It is

    important to point out that the short opportunity mentioned above is based on a strong

    negative deviation on the MACD index and the negative sentiment that has been the order of

    the day for the markets recently.

    Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


    More analysis - at

    instaforex.com








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    USD/CHF wave analysis for May 4, 2011






    During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF currency pair continued to decline slowly along the

    forming line of the downside corridor initiated April 1. At the same time, the inner wave

    structure of the 5th wave, in the 5th, is being formed. Besides, given the wave dimension

    of this whole downside section of the main trend, the target level at 0.8570 still applies.

    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



    More analysis - at

    instaforex.com




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    EUR/USD wave analysis for May 4, 2011





    Good data on the US factory orders could not provide substantial support for the US

    currency. As a result, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to move between the levels of

    the 48 and the 49 figures. In the meantime, Monday’s high looks like the top of the 3rd

    wave (in the 5th) at the moment. If so, we can expect further decline of the euro to 1.4700

    (or 1.4650) and forming of the 4th wave (in the 5th).

    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011



    More analysis - at

    instaforex.com

  2. #502
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 5, 2011

    GBP/JPY is developing subwave 5 (colored red in the chart) within wave C (colored royal blue in the chart) of medium term downtrend. Now the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-135.17-136.09, 136.09-132.91-134.24.
    Supports:
    - 132.69 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 132.27 = COP
    - 131.22-21 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .50 ret
    - 131.06 = objective point (OP)
    - 130.00 = OP
    If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 137.03 - this wave is not developed yet.

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (45-60 pips above the current prices).

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  3. #503
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 5, 2011

    AUD/USD has finished wave 0.9709-1.1011 (wave A of long term uptrend) and now is developing correction against it. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9709-1.1011 (wave A), 1.0389-1.1011 (subwave C within wave A), 1.0442-1.1011 (subwave C within C), and also Fibonacci expansions off 1.1011-1.0789-1.0876, 1.0876-1.0725-1.0770.
    Supports:
    - 1.0700 = .50 retracement
    - 1.0677 = contracted objective point (COP)
    - 1.0659-54 = confluence area of .618 ret and objective point (OP)
    - 1.0627-19 = confluence area of .618 ret and another OP
    - 1.0526-17-14 = confluence area of two expanded objective points (XOP) and .382 ret
    If the price reverses up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0876 and 1.1011 - these waves are not developed yet.

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try shorts when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (25-30 pips above the current prices) or gets into the overbought area (45-55 pips above the current prices).

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  4. #504
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    Gold and silver review for May 5, 2011

    Futures on precious metals dropped considerably on Wednesday amid sales by large investment funds. Funds, investing in resources, tend to own a wide range of raw materials which results in large-scale sales when they leave the market. By the end of COMEX trades May futures on silver lost USD 3.193 (7.5%) and constituted USD 39.383 for an ounce. As compared to the final result of Friday USD 48.584 (the highest for 31 years) the prices declined by 18.9%. July futures on silver lost USD 3.197 (7.5%) and equaled USD 39.388 for an ounce which is the lowest level for four weeks. In comparison to the Friday level of USD 48.599 which is a record high for the most actively traded contract the quotations lost 19%.
    The fall of silver prices reverberated on other raw materials markets where the prices showed decline as well.
    CME Group Inc. Company which owns NYMEX increased margin levels for futures on silver by 38% for 9 days. Its Monday evening raising was implemented on Tuesday only. However, as silver is a volatile asset characterized by low volume of trading, it failed to influence raw materials markets. Silver is a cheaper alternative to gold and so investors often transform funds into silver as the most accessible means of protecting their funds from inflation and currency volatility. Yet, the recent decrease of silver prices brought about buyers’ concerns over precious metals in general. May futures on gold showed a decline by USD 25.20 (1.6%) and reached the level of USD 1514.90 per an ounce by the end of trades. June futures on gold cheapened by USD 25.10 (1.6%) and equaled USD 1515.30 per an ounce. A weakening dollar was not able to suppress this fall that much. When the US dollar is on decrease, gold is growing attractive to holders of currencies.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  5. #505
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/GBP technical analysis for May 5, 2011

    Earlier in a daily graph the EUR/GBP formed a Long Shadows candlestick indicating further downside movement.
    This candlestick shows that earlier the EUR/GBP pair made a strong upside movement after an unsuccessful attempt to break the support level 0.8300. However, it reversed near the 0.9000 level. This means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
    The divergence on the RSI and the MACD supports the downside movement.
    Break of the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level will prove this viewpoint. In this case we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.8740 where the Fibonacci 38.2 correction level is also located.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  6. #506
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    EUR/USD candlestick analysis for May 5, 2011

    In a daily graph the EUR/USD pair cannot fixate above the 1.4900 level. Nevertheless, after a slight pause we should expect further growth. As mentioned earlier, break of the resistance level 1.4800 targeted the pair to 1.5150, which is November 2009 high.
    On the other hand, if the 1.4750 support level is broken, we should expect a slight correction.
    Earlier in the intraday chart EUR/USD shaped a Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination which is an explicit signal to growth.
    Such a candlestick combination points to the growth of the pair for several weeks. However, there was a rollback registered at the 1.4035 level which was a good opportunity to start buying.
    Further upside movement is supported by the fact that the uptrend remains.
    The break of 1.4035 resistance level proves this viewpoint.
    It is worth mentioning that stop loss orders should be placed slightly below 1.4349 as a break of this level will denote that the uptrend is broken.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  7. #507
    badman is offline Senior Member
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    USD/CHF wave analysis for May 5, 2011




    During yesterday’s trading the USD/CHF currency pair observed the target level 0.8570 and

    the inner wave structure of the 5th wave, in the 5th, became quite complete. If so, we

    might expect a continuous and deep correction from the reached low (0.8560). In the

    meantime, the franc upside dynamics does not look exhausted, which keeps the targets near

    the 82 figure level.



    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011


    More analysis - at

    instaforex.com





    ================================================== ===================================

    ================================================== ===================================





    EUR/USD wave analysis for May 5, 2011



    Despite another attempt of the EUR/USD to test the 49 figure level, the price could not

    fixate above it and rebounded by more than a figure from the reached high by the end of the

    day. At the same time, current wave situation can help the euro price form an inner wave

    structure of the 5th wave (in the 5th) developing in the direction of the targets located

    slightly above the psychologically relevant level 1.5000. In the meantime, strong MACD

    divergence indicates a deep downside correction.

    Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011

    More analysis - at

    instaforex.com

  8. #508
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 6, 2011

    GBP/JPY has developed 5 waves of medium term downtrend (colored red in the chart). Now potential wave A of corrective A-B-C cycle is developing. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 134.24-130.89, 137.03-130.89.
    Resistances:
    - 132.17 = .382 retracement
    - 132.57 = .50 ret
    - 132.96 = .618 ret
    - 133.24 = .382 ret
    - 133.96 = .50 ret
    - 134.68 = .618 ret
    If the downtrend resumes the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-135.17-136.09.
    Supports:
    - 130.00 = objective point (OP)
    - 129.15 = .618 retracement
    - 129.09 = expanded objective point (XOP)

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-60 pips above the current prices).

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  9. #509
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 6, 2011

    AUD/USD has finished wave 0.9709-1.1011 (wave A of long term uptrend) and now is developing correction against it. Within the corrective wave there are A and B subwaves, with subwave B still developing - colored magenta in the chart. The targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9709-1.1011 (wave A).
    Supports:
    - 1.0514 = .382 retracement
    - 1.0360 = .50 retracement
    If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0876-1.0536, 1.1011-1.0536.
    Resistances:
    - 1.0706-17 = confluence area of .50 and .382 retracements
    - 1.0746 = .618 ret
    - 1.0774 = .50 ret
    - 1.0830 = .618 ret

    Overbought/Oversold
    Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try shorts when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices), or hits a Fib resistance, e.g. 1.0706-17 or 1.0746-74.

    Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

  10. #510
    insta_poster is offline Senior Member
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    GBP/USD technical analysis for May 6, 2011

    The GBP/USD currency pair is still in the downside movement. Earlier in a daily graph the GBP/USD formed a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick combination indicating a bearish signal.
    This candlestick was formed after the pair failed to break the resistance level near 1.6750, which means that the bulls could not solidify here and the bears started to increase their influence.
    The break of 1 the Fibonacci 23.6 correction level proves this viewpoint. Now we should expect downside movement with a target at 0.6164 where the Fibonacci 38.2 correction level is also located.
    is worth mentioning that stop orders should be placed slightly above the 1.6750 level as a break of this resistance will target the pair to 1.6877.


    Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
    InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
    More analysis - at instaforex.com

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