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Thread: Daily Reviews of major currencies from GlobeGain.com

  1. #11
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    Default 21/02/2012 Is it the end of the Greek drama?

    EUR/USD



    Private lenders have agreed to write off the Greek debt by 53.5%, though earlier it was negotiated to cut the nominal face value by 50%, which corresponds to the 70% loss of the net present value. In addition, it’s been reported that an agreement on the second bailout package was also reached. Actually, rumours about a good state of affairs were circulating around the market all day yesterday, thus maintaining a high demand for the euro. The single currency got stronger yesterday and is now trading near 1.3270, compared with Monday’s opening level of 1.3150. Now it’s possible to say that risks of the unfavourable turn of events have significantly decreased, but this still doesn’t make up for the weakness of the economies, now facing considerable cuts in spending. However, the market is likely to celebrate the deal first and only then will switch over to this issue. We remind that the market now abounds in the euro short positions. Now EUR/USD is close to local highs, which means that the upward movement will trigger a wave of stop-losses. This, in its turn, may give rise to a wave of spikes, which can easily bring the euro to 1.35 after breaking the 1.33 level.

    GBP/USD

    The news from Greece has produced an invigorating effect on the pound as well. However, overnight the pair closed the gap, which started to form since the opening on Monday, but then it continued to move upwards again....
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  2. #12
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    Default 22/02/2012 Markets hardly believe that the Greek saga is over and stay nervous

    22/02/2012 Markets hardly believe that the Greek saga is over and stay nervous

    EUR/USD



    The single currency didn’t manage to show any significant dynamics yesterday. Despite the positive reaction of the market to the approval of a Greek bailout package, the euro sales broke out. But as there were no strong reasons to sell the euro, the downward movement didn’t get any support either. The euro got stuck between 1.32 and 1.33. But this concerns only EUR/USD. Against the Aussie, yen and pound, EUR feels much stronger. Risk demand manifests itself in the strengthening of equity markets and rise in the price of gold. Oil rides its own wave - geopolitics - but on the whole its trend coincides with the general movement. Under such circumstances the dollar usually declines, against the common currency as well, but this time it is different. Investors fear that the Greek deal will eventually fail, as there is still a lot to be done. The biggest risk factor here is obtaining the approval of the national parliaments, which will hardly be an easy matter. Americans are tired of waiting for the Syrian opposition to seize the initiative, so in Washington and the U.S. State Department it’s been decided to help the opposition. It will probably boost the dollar sales as well, because demand for commodities is likely to go up on such news, as was the case with Iraq and Libya. More tension may shortly come up from Iran as the country is unwilling to become the next field for Americans to sow their seeds of democracy.

    GBP/USD

    The pound is falling against the dollar and the euro, having dropped by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. It’s mainly caused by investors’ anticipations that Britain will have to pay higher prices for oil imports after Iran stops its deliveries to the country...
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  3. #13
    positivelypowerful is offline Junior Member
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    i suppose you're right but there is not much energy left in the dollar index, on top of that crude has risen. Thus, only way left for euro is upwards, though has got high resistance at 1.3250 level.
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  4. #14
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    23/02/2012 The euro gradually strengthens its positions

    EUR/USD



    The euro is slowly but steadily recouping its losses against the dollar. The single currency is oscillating around 1.3255, but can already boast a series of rising lows. This means that the currency is bought on the dips and that it is ready to take higher levels. As to news, Spanish appeal for mercy is of real interest. Spain’s Prime Minister asked the EU to raise the budget deficit target from 4.4% to 5%. Rajoy called it impossible to reach such a tough budget austerity. He is right, but all this suggests that the EU’s numerous concessions to Greece take their effect now. The precedent is set and now each troubled country will try to better its lot, asking for a bigger piece. The market has generally ignored this news, trying to concentrate on the positive aspects. The demand for risk continues to gain momentum, which cannot but result in strengthening of the single currency in the long run. This state of affairs is also supported by the U.S. statistics. The housing market in the States demonstrates a greater vitality than before. In January the secondary housing market showed the sales growth by 4.3% up to 4.57 million at an annual rate. This is the highest sale pace since May 2010. But then the market was supported by the government, and now - by falling housing prices. The average price of a house on sale dropped to 154.7 thousand dollars, which is ten thousand less than last year’s average price. Obviously, Americans are ready to buy houses, but only the cheapest ones and at historically lowest interest rates. Nevertheless, banks offer such conditions, as money in the markets is relatively cheap.

    GBP/USD

    The sterling received a serious blow on the publication of the MPC meeting minutes yesterday. In the minutes it was said that two members of the monetary committee advocated a greater expansion of the programme... Read full review

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  5. #15
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    24/02/2012 Euro area rose to two-month highs on triggering of stop orders

    EUR/USD



    The single currency has moved up on triggering stop orders and reached 1.3360. This level is the highest since mid-December. The rising optimism in stock markets and subsiding fears around Greece lead to partial liquidation of short positions in the euro. As has already been mentioned, the market is heavily tilted against the euro, yet its exchange rate has remained relatively stable so far. Thus, the upward movement of EUR/ USD has good chances to go on. This rally is supported by strengthening of stock markets on good reports and rise in prices of raw materials. Until recently the inverse correlation between commodity markets and the dollar has served well, helping the single currency to climb up. This time the long-term steadiness of this correlation is questionable because of the shifts in the euro area, which may keep exerting pressure on the performance of the eurozone economies for a long time to come. However, in the near term the single currency may get support from the markets. It’s not likely that the euro will face serious obstacles on its way to 1.35. European banks are supported by speculators on the threshold of the second 3-year LTRO auction. It is scheduled for the next week. The previous auction demonstrated the bank demand at 500 billion euro, and this time the volume is likely to be the same. With this tool at hand the ECB helps banks to ease the need for refinancing and to increase demand for government bonds.

    GBP/USD

    The punishment of the pound for ‘weak’ MPC minutes hasn’t lasted for long. Already throughout yesterday’s trading the pound managed to recoup most of its losses and return above 1.57... Read full review

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  6. #16
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    27/02/2012 G20 promises to secure $2 trln in firepower

    EUR/USD



    On Friday the single currency continued to rally and reached 1.3485. The growth was supported by positive expectations in regard to Europe, as well as by the trigger of stop orders in the euro short positions. The impulsive rise in the single currency may hold for some more time, but it is unlikely to last for long. Now Spain steps onto that very spiral Greece has been lately moving along. The Spanish government more and more realizes its inability to fulfill the budget plans. Haircuts have just begun. Nevertheless, the markets mostly ignore this fact, being happy with the G20’s promise to increase the firepower of international lenders up to $2 trln over the next two months. One thing is of interest – who will pay for this? By the way, the major developing countries (BRICS) are said to negotiate in detail the foundation of a bank for developing countries at the G20 meeting. It seems that the dynamic economies are not willing to participate in financing of the troubled euro area and prefer to focus on the growth in their own states and on the cooperation with other developing countries. However, one of factors sparking off the euro rally was China's statement about its readiness to provide the euro area with greater support. China heavily depends on the investor sentiment, so it is the country’s vested interest to maintain as much stability as possible in the euro zone, with which it has very close trading relations. Stock markets today will seek to take profits after a week of remarkable growth, which may eventually lead to the euro correction and drive the currency down to 1.34. However, there will surely be some more attempts to break above 1.35 this week.

    GBP/USD

    Britain's Chancellor manifested its firm stance towards tax cuts and stimulation of the economic growth through government spending... Read full review

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  7. #17
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    28/02/2012 Greece’s rating is cut to selective default, but who cares?

    EUR/USD



    S&P has downgraded Greece’s credit rating to selective default (SD). This decision hasn’t come as a surprise, as the agency already promised to do it a couple of months ago. For this reason, there haven’t been any sharp euro sales. The agency has also pointed out that if there aren’t enough private investors engaged in debt swap, the country will inevitably face outright default. However, as the technical analysis shows, the euro sales were just held during the day yesterday, not longer. EUR/USD fell to 1.3366 during Monday’s session, but already now trading is again conducted around 1.3440. Demand in stock and commodity markets remains strong. And current traders’ talks more and more resemble those of early 2008. Traders underestimate the consequences of the European issues now just like they underestimated the graveness of the situation in the US and the UK banking sector then. Investors turn their eyes to the developed countries, performing rather well at the moment, as if the poor state of affairs in Europe wasn’t likely to impact developing China and Russia. Of course, there has been a certain shift in the economic models of China over this time, but the fact still is that all the developing BRIC countries heavily depend on demand in foreign markets. Moreover, most of their capitals come from the U.S., Europe and Japan, which is a result of the soft monetary policy in these countries.

    GBP/USD

    Following the market recovery, the British pound also tries to demonstrate some growth. However, its dynamics leave much to be desired, which is especially noticeable in the pair with the euro...Read full review

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  8. #18
    akzhanghunan1 is offline Member
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    The situation looks quite optimistic, and the risk sensitive currencies is strengthening, as we can see, the euro didn’t stand aside either, it rised up to 1.3230 at the beginning, meanwhile, no factors appeared to prevent or postpone the Greek deal.
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  9. #19
    forextechnology88 is offline Junior Member
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    i am new here and i am really good at learning, i know that there was a financial crisis in USA,since then the US dollars have been devalued, and i am not sure whether there will be a chance that USA dollars will be upvaluation?

  10. #20
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    29/02/2012 Markets see the positive everywhere

    EUR/USD



    The US dollar continues the retreat started on Tuesday. The currency is declining while the markets generally remain optimistic, thus generating demand for risky assets. Yesterday’s data on investor sentiment supported the markets. Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence has exceeded everyone’s expectations, having risen to 70.8 in February, the highest level in a year. The data on Durable Goods Orders and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index proved to be a bit disappointing. However, the orders largely increased over the previous months (4.2% in November, 3.2% in December), so together with the 4.2% decline in January the figures have restored to the trend levels. Housing prices in the U.S. remain low or in the downtrend. But it is no news as this trend has already been indicated in other reports. The Americans are not very enthusiastic about purchasing single-family homes; they look for more affordable offers, despite the low interest rates on mortgages and the opportunity of a lower down payment. Europe still remains in the limelight of traders and investors. Today we’ll see the results of the ECB’s 3-year auction repos. The sums close to the previous LTRO levels are seen as the most favourable for the markets. High figures will reflect the need for serious refinancing in Europe, and low ones will generate fears that the situation won’t change much in the long run and that the banks will remain highly dependent on the goodwill of the markets.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound managed to rise to 1.59 during yesterday’s trading, as we promised. Today, it is already trading above the 200-day moving average, which is actually the middle level of the year...Read full review

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