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Thread: Daily Reviews of major currencies from GlobeGain.com

  1. #21
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by forextechnology88 View Post
    i am new here and i am really good at learning, i know that there was a financial crisis in USA,since then the US dollars have been devalued, and i am not sure whether there will be a chance that USA dollars will be upvaluation?
    The dollar may start growing again in case the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone aggravates and also if the US economy will keep steadily stronger than the European economy.
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  2. #22
    Globe Gain is offline Senior Member
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    1/03/2012 Is EUR becoming the carry-trade funding currency?

    EUR/USD



    The data on the ECB’s direct loans proved adverse for the common currency and eventually generated demand for the dollar. It is quite an interesting result as the figures turned out to be close to the middle of the predicted values. Three-year loans totaled 530 billion euro. However, the euro failed to make any gains on the news. On the other hand, the peripheral bond yields began to decline straight away, thus indicating that the fears for the fate of these countries subsided. Judging by the influence such loans produce on the currency, they can be definitely attributed to quantitative easing, which makes borrowings in the currency cheaper. In the end, it should trigger off demand for risky assets and support lending. But at the initial stage, we are most likely to see the sales of the euro as the currency with lowered rates. Looking back to December, after the publication of the first 3-year LTRO the euro held to the same level for a few days at and then began to decline. It must be noted that then the euro sales were accompanied by the growth in stock markets, in contrast to what we had observed earlier. By the way, is it possible to say that with Draghi’s getting into office and the unfolding debt crisis in Europe the euro will become the funding currency? It all depends on how long it will take Europe to handle its current issues. So far treatment deals only with the symptoms while the disease itself remains unaffected and is progressing here and there.
    GBP/USD

    The data on the UK lending proved really surprising. Net Consumer Credit figures, published on Wednesday, came well above the expected values and proved to be the best over the long term...Read full review

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  3. #23
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    2/03/2012 ISDA report helps the banking sector, but renders no support to risk demand

    EUR/USD



    Yesterday’s market events can be well packed into two stories. The first one concerns the ISDA’s (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) conclusion that the swap for private Greek debt holders is not a credit event and therefore will not trigger CDS. This news has supported equity markets, especially the banking sector, which feels somewhat mystically feared at the word "default". The other story is about rather unimpressive data on the economy. That’s all in relation to expectations, of course. If earlier the U.S. unemployment claims totaling 351 thousand gave rise to the most optimistic sentiments in the markets, now these figures don’t seem to be enough. Again too optimistic market expectations concerning the economy are somewhat alarming. In a week, on Friday, markets will see data on the US labour market. In general, economists expect the employment increase to go above 200,000. Such monthly rates of job creation have been observed only in the best of times. Now the state of affairs is not that perfect, so it would be better if the markets moderated their optimism. U.S. consumer spending rose by 0.3% in January, which is lower than the forecasted 0.5%. The manufacturing ISM figure hasn’t met the expectations, having fallen from 54.1to 52.4. It is still the phase of growth, but of a more moderate one. The markets however expected acceleration. The same trend has been also seen in the report on durable goods orders. The economy gained momentum in October-December, having built up ample reserves, so now it may slow down for a while, and though not being at risk of recession (yet) it is unlikely to show the same impressive acceleration as in winter. The single currency is falling, which goes along with the model we’ve observed earlier: the ECB’s loans cause weakness of the euro. The EUR/USD is now close to 1.33 and two days ago tried to break above 1.35.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound is trying hard to resist the across-the-board strengthening of the dollar. At the same time the pound is gradually crawling up and feels all the more freely above 1.59, which is also the level of the 200-day moving average...Read full review

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  4. #24
    mikedublin is offline Junior Member
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  5. #25
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    5/03/2012 Monday’s demand for risk remains weak

    EUR/USD



    On Friday the euro dropped below 1.32 on the sales of technology stocks. During the Asian session the stocks were recouping the losses suffered on Friday's falling of U.S. stock markets, while the euro/dollar remained almost unchanged - just below 1.32. If the pattern we saw in December repeats itself, the single currency may fall into decline for a week or two. The fact is that the "soft money", issued by the ECB, is primarily directed to ease crediting conditions, which, in its turn, leads to lower euro borrowing rates. But after all, it positively affects the economy and spurs inflation, which is sure to support the single currency in the near future. However, that’s all about the future, and now it is important to see the clear signs of the European economic recovery. In this connection, today’s PMI report on services is of interest. The index has cooled the markets’ ardour, having fallen down to 48,8 against 50,4 in January and shown the preliminary data revised down to 49,4. As we see, February’s final reading confirmed the activity reduction. At the same time, business and consumer sentiment indicators are turned upwards, which promises further improvement in the coming months. Thus, if no extreme scenarios unfold, the eurozone economy will show a better performance in the near future. In case this improvement turns impressive and involves not only Germany and France, but also the periphery, investors will probably turn away from the bond sales in the region’s peripheral countries. Time will tell. But for now we warn you against going too far with these expectations.

    GBP/USD

    It looks as though traders had decided that the British pound has climbed too high and too fast. On Friday and during the Asian session on Monday the sterling suffered a big sale, having dropped to 1.5820...Read full review

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  6. #26
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    6/03/2012 Euroís holding at 1.32 despite the reduced risk demand

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    The euro gained almost no momentum yesterday. Some factors offset other ones and, as a result, EUR/USD remained at 1.32. Yesterday markets saw a batch of PMI figures. Interestingly enough, statistics have again confirmed the old observation that recovery of the U.S. real economy happens 3-6 months earlier than that of the European one. Thus Februaryís PMI for the euro area was unexpectedly revised down to 48.8 against the pre-estimate of 49.4. The most depressing thing about this is that a month earlier the service sector displayed growth and the index figure made 50.4. In other words, in January the service sector was intensifying its activity yet, but already in February the situation changed for the worse and the sectorís activity was swiftly fading away. In contrast, ISMís PMI data for U.S. reflected the increase in the service sector growth. The indicator rose to 57.3 from the previous 56.8. Such strong data generally support the demand for risk in stock markets and risk-sensitive currencies. However, it was different this time. Markets didnít manage to recover from the sales triggered by lowering of Chinaís targeted growth. We consider it to be an exaggerated reaction to the expectations. The facts themselves may prove completely different. But the market is still pretty heavy after 2 1/2 months of the persistent rally. On the other hand, heavy sales need a good reason, for instance, a weak report on labour markets this Friday. Until then the sideways trend is likely to dominate.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound had managed to recover by the end of the day and rose to 1.5850 during Asian session. As we mentioned earlier when commenting on the UK Services PMI data, the statistics are too good to let the sterling fall...Read full review

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  7. #27
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    7/03/2012 Markets fall on ongoing concerns around Greece, but the euro doesnít look worse than its counterparts

    EUR/USD


    Tuesday proved to be a hard day for stock markets. Frankly speaking, it came as the worst one since the beginning of the year. Some commentators attribute such dynamics to the higher probability of Greeceís default on its debt. Itís no secret that international institutions are evaluating the expense at which this deadly scenario may unfold. Institute of International Finance yesterday mouthed its assessment of default in Greece, forecasting possible losses at $1 trillion. The Dutch right-wing party held its own research which showed that the bailout of the troubled countries may eventually cost 2.4 trillion. With stakes being so high, the market playersí desire to give up breaking even is quite natural at the moment. This is what Dutch Freedom Party leader advocates. With such talks around, markets keep rather skeptical about Greeceís deal to get a sufficient number of claims. For now we know only about the participation of large holders, accounting for 20%of the claims. It is still far from 66% required to successfully close the deal. Meanwhile, the market is kept in suspense and volatility is gaining momentum. In our case, the rising volatility, preceded by a continuous rally, marks the marketís tendency to decline. However, we will hardly see any shift in the currencies before facts come out. The end of this week may become really crucial for the further movement in the markets.

    GBP/USD

    The sterling reveals its dependence on the stock market sentiments. The day, which came for stock markets as the worst one since the beginning of the year, proved to be equally bad for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY...Read full review

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  8. #28
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    8/03/2012 Big day for markets and, more so, for the euro

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    After Tuesday's fears and profit-taking in risky assets, the euro is gradually coming round. And though the day promises to be eventful, stock markets are trading positive. As a result, EUR/USD rose from the lows below 1.31 and is now trading at 1.3170. Today the ECB will hold a regular meeting on the monetary policy. However, the markets will want to pay more attention to Draghiís press-conference, where he will probably lay his own assessment of the second LTRO auction and speak on the further plans and views of the Bank. For all its importance, the ECBís meeting wonít probably come as the most risky event of the day. The fact is that later on Thursday or early on Friday markets will see data on private sector investor participation in the Greek debt swap. Remember that for the deal to close successfully the participation rate of all creditors have to be over 66%. However, even this wonít be enough. Even if the deal will be regarded as done, 90% of all money should be involved to reach the required level of "participation". It is rumored that 14% of the creditors are not obligated to participate, and if they take the opportunity, it may eventually ruin the whole deal. However, todayís agenda brings us good news as well. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in February came in at 216K, which allows us to expect the Non-Farm Payrolls reach the 235K level. The figure is above the average market forecasts and may partly explain the moderate positive, currently dominating in the markets.

    GBP/USD

    Just like the euro, the sterling is gradually recovering from the weak start of the week. The Cable is now trading at 1.5760 against the 1.57 low, hit on Wednesday night. Today the Bank of England will announce its decision on Interest Rate...Read full review

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  9. #29
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    9/03/2012 Greek deal is done and markets wait for payrolls

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    Thursday proved to be quite a favourable day for the markets. Tuesdayís losses in the stock markets were recouped, and the single currency climbed pretty much higher. EUR/USD is trading near 1.3250 now. Most likely, it will stick to this level until the release of data on the US employment. The results of the private investor participation in the debt swap were postponed to Friday morning. The good news is that the 66% threshold has been crossed, which, actually, was already evident from the leaks yesterday. With the collective action clauses applied, the level of participation in the swap amounted to 95.7%. Such relatively good news allows us to speak about the successful closing of the hardest and most nerve-racking deal, which took six months to be clinched. However, the market reaction to this long-awaited news was not very strong, having come just with a few sales of the single currency. The analogy with what we saw after the summits inevitably comes to mind. The euro is supported on expectations, and invariably depreciated on facts. Something of the kind may happen this time as well. Yet the main motion will most probably fall on the US publication of non-farm payrolls. Remember that the markets are expecting the employment growth of 209,000. After ADPís data release (the 216K growth in the private sector) we assumed that the official figures would indicate the 235K increase or so. However, yesterdayís data on unemployment claims force to be more cautious. Letís see. We're not going to change our expectations, suggesting strong data, growth in the stock markets and also higher demand for risk. But in the coming months the statistics may prove much weaker.

    GBP/USD

    As expected by most market participants, the Bank of England did not change anything in its policy, keeping the rate at 0.5% and the size of the QE programme at 325bln. However, that did not prevent the sterling bulls from taking GBP/USD above 1.58...Read full review

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  10. #30
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    12/03/2012 Good news does not always excite the market growth

    EUR/USD



    EUR/USD has been falling since Friday and has lost almost two big figures over this time. The single currency is now worth $1.3080, which is a four-week low. Against our expectations the market did not wait for the publication of statistics on the US employment to start selling risky assets, including the euro. As a result, at the time the non-farm payrolls were released, the euro was already trading as high as 1.3125. The labour market statistics has come in almost as good as expected, showing the 227K increase in the number of jobs (we predicted 235K, while the general market forecast was 206K). Moreover, it canít but be noticed that almost all sectors can boast improvement now. Employment in manufacturing has been steadily growing for three consecutive months, having added 31K in February after 28K in December and 52K in January. Private sector employment has been averaging out at above 200K over the last six months and grew by 227K in February. The unemployment rate remains at 8.3%, however the disappointing data of January, when the index went down only due to the participation rate reduction, have been a little bit smoothed away. This figure made 63.9% in February against 63.7% in January and 64.2% a year ago. These positive data make the Fedís extension of its QE programme less possible. But despite the obvious positive data context such expectations triggered the decline in stock markets and reduced the demand for risk. Turning to today, Europeans are expected to back another aid tranche for Greece, which will help the country to avoid a disorderly default. This is also good news, but over recently itís been too often the case that the market has fallen on the positive news. Technical analysts assume that the common currency will shortly drop below 1.29 on the rising bearish sentiment. However, there is a feeling that the market will be allowed some rest after a strong movement on Friday.

    GBP/USD

    Friday was an eventful day not only for the U.S. and Europe. Britain also brought us a batch of important news. However, it didnít boost any optimism in the market. Industrial production did not surpass the expectations, having lost 0.4% against the previous month and 3.8% against the previous year....Read full review

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