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  1. #1
    rohit is offline Member
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    Default Technical Analysis Of the Day By ACFX

    March 15th, 2012

    Currencies

    • EUR/USD The greenback was near the highest level in four weeks against the euro amid reduced bets the Federal Reserve will begin a third round of bond purchases, or quantitative easing, which could debase the world’s reserve currency.

    o The U.S. currency was at $1.3020 per euro from 1.3032 yesterday. It earlier climbed to as high as $1.3004, the strongest since Feb. 16.

    • USD/JPY The dollar rose to an 11-month high against the yen before U.S. data forecast to show regional manufacturing expanded and initial jobless claims decreased, adding to signs the American economy is gathering momentum.

    o The dollar touched 84.18 yen, the highest level since April 13, before trading at 84.08 yen at 2:53 p.m. in Tokyo, 0.4 percent above yesterday’s close in New York.

  2. #2
    rohit is offline Member
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    Default

    March 19th, 2012

    Currencies

    • EUR/JPY The euro reached a fourth and a half-month high against the yen after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said European officials have discussed combining the euro-area’s bailout funds to reinforce the region’s financial firewall.

    o The euro reached 110.15 yen, the highest since Oct. 31, before trading at 109.83 at 6:28 a.m. in London, 0.1 percent below its March 16 close in New York.

    • EUR/USD The pair was bought $1.3170 from $1.3175 on March 16, when it rose 0.7 percent.

    • USD/JPY The yen was little changed at 83.40 per dollar from 83.43. The Japanese currency on March 15 touched 84.18, the weakest since April 13.



    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-115/











    March 19th, 2012

    Commodities

    • Oil advanced for a second day in New York as investors bet that a U.S. economic recovery and Saudi Arabian crude output near the strongest level since at least 1980 signals fuel demand is increasing.

    o Oil for April delivery increased as much as 42 cents to $107.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $107.37 at 1:30 p.m. Singapore time.

    • Gold rose more than half a percent on Monday after firm oil prices prompted safe haven buying from investors and speculators, while technical buying also resurfaced after bullion bounced from its weakest level in two months.
    o Gold added USD 9.35 to trade at USD 1,662.84 an ounce by 0323 GMT after posting a 3% fall last week in its second-biggest weekly decline this year, on fading expectations of more monetary easing in the United States.



    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-115/

  3. #3
    rohit is offline Member
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    Default

    EUR/USD.
    The recovery in the U.S. economy and massive liquidity injections from major central banks have combined to drive a rally in share markets since late last year.

    The dollar edged up 0.1 percent against most of its major traded currencies, while the euro held steady around $1.3230, after rising as high as $1.32659 on Monday.
    That meant an owner of Greek CDS would be paid 78.5 cents on the euro, which analysts said was enough to compensate for the roughly 75 percent loss investors incurred on the country's debt restructuring.
    The European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement that it put its bond-buying program on hold last week also encouraged traders to cover bets against the single currency.
    http://blog.acfx.com/wp-content/uplo...0-3/eurusd.jpg

  4. #4
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    Default daily technical outlook by acfx.com

    Commodities

    Oil
    Commodities were broadly weaker, with base and precious metals both edging down, while crude oil eased more than half a percent on an improved supply outlook as Libyan exports are returning to pre-war levels faster than expected.

    Oil in New York dropped for the first time in three days. U.S. inventories climbed to the highest level in six months last week as processors idled units and imports from Canada increased.

    Oil continued a decline that began on Monday on news that top exporter Saudi Arabia increased shipments in January and that Libyan production next month would return to levels seen before the civil war that ousted Muammar Gaddafi.
    Brent crude and U.S. crude both fell about 70 cents to around $125 and $107.40 a barrel respectively.

    Gold
    prices dipped in Asian trading Tuesday, erasing earlier gains stemming from reports that central banks have been stocking up on the metal and also on comments from a key Federal Reserve official, who said additional easing measures can't be ruled out for the U.S. economy.
    On the Comex division of the NYMEX, gold futures for April delivery traded down 0.27% at $1,662.85 a troy ounce.

    http://blog.acfx.com/wp-content/uplo.../20-3/gold.jpg
    http://blog.acfx.com/wp-content/uplo...2/20-3/oil.jpg

  5. #5
    rohit is offline Member
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    Default

    March 22th, 2012
    Currencies

    • EUR/USD rose up and down on good economic news on both sides of the Atlantic. With positive news from Germany, where the RWI economic institute raised it projection for growth, coupled with a strong bond auction of EFSF paper. The euro opened the day at 1.3224 and moved to a high of 1.3285 but settled in at a drop to 1.3191 after the housing report in the US although it was below forecast, it had a positive lining.


    • USD/CAD is ranging around 0.9925 in mid-day trading. The USD has picked up momentum against all of its trading major currencies. Optimism of the economy was the theme of the day as Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke testified in front of US Lawmakers.
    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-118/
    March 22th, 2012
    Commodities

    Oil fell as much as 0.9 % after France said that industrialized nations are considering releasing strategic crude stockpiles to counter rising prices. Crude prices have advanced this year on concern sanctions aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear program will disrupt oil exports.

    Brent oil fell 0.4 % to $123.69 a barrel while U.S. Crude futures eased 0.7 % to $106.52 a barrel. Copper was hit by concerns about weak demand from China, falling 0.9 % to $8,381.




    Gold earlier climbed alongside equities as China lowered reserve requirements for 379 branches of Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s 3rd biggest lender by market value, expanding a trial that had cut requirements for 563 branches

    Gold may decline after a report showed that China’s manufacturing may contract for a 5th straight month in March, hurting the outlook for commodities.

    Spot gold little changed at $1,649.82 an ounce at noon in Asian market, paring a 0.4 % advance. The preliminary 48.1 reading of the HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics index today is a 4-month low, and compares with a final 49.6 in February

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-118/

  6. #6
    rohit is offline Member
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    Default

    March 23th, 2012
    Currencies
    EUR/USD rose up after Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Bernanke said the U.S. economy is operating below its level prior to the financial crisis, and that increased household spending is needed to sustain the expansion.
    Consumer spending is not recovered, it’s still quite weak relative to where it was before the crisis,” Bernanke said yesterday in his speech going in the history of the Fed that he plans to deliver at George Washington University. “In terms of debt and consumption and so on we’re still way low relative to the patterns before.”
    Purchases of new homes in the U.S. probably rose in February to the highest level of the year.
    Sales, tabulated when contracts are signed, climbed 1.3 % to a 325,000 annual pace, the fastest since December 2010. That would mark the 5th gain in six months.
    Existing-home purchases eased to a 4.59 million annual rate last month from a 4.63 million pace in January, the National Association of Realtors reported this week. Even with the decline, January and February sales marked the strongest start to a year since 2007.

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-119/

  7. #7
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    Default Eur/usd

    Hi, there, if I got more EUR/USD at this level, could I gain more? Many thanks.

  8. #8
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    Daily technical outlook for USDCHF as at 2nd April 2012 by acfx.com
    The prevailing Daily trend is short.

    The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern.
    The stochastic has breached the oversold area which could be seen as a sign that USDCHF needs to take a pause or that the indicator is now embedded with further downside to come.
    The Alligator indicator is bearish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a selling opportunity in lower time frames.
    Possible range
    The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 82 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.8942 and 09106.
    Long scenario
    Conservative long above 0.9093 being the last daily fractal high.
    Aggressive long into the Alligator indicator.
    Short scenario
    Conservative scenario is neutral as USDCHF has already breached the 8th March fractal at 0.9071.
    Aggressive short wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame.
    http://blog.acfx.com/

    Daily technical outlook for USDJPY as at 2nd April 2012 by acfx.com
    The prevailing Daily trend is long
    The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal.
    The stochastic has breached the overbought value as is now neutral but heading towards the oversold area.
    The Alligator indicator is bullish with price in a lower time frame buying zone.
    Possible range
    The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.805. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 82.05 and 83.66.
    Long scenario
    Conservative long above 83.38 being the last daily fractal high.
    Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame.
    Short scenario
    Conservative short beneath 81.82 being the 30th March low.
    Aggressive short, neutral.
    http://blog.acfx.com/

  9. #9
    rohit is offline Member
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    Default

    Daily Market Outlook April 3rd, 2012 By acfx.com

    Currencies


    • EUR/USD The dollar declined against most of its major peers as signs of recovery in the U.S. economy sapped demand for the relative safety of the world’s reserve currency.

    o The greenback slid 0.2 percent to $1.3345 per euro.

    • NZD/USD The greenback slid versus the New Zealand dollar before a government report forecast to show U.S. factory orders rebounded in February, which would follow figures yesterday that signaled an acceleration in manufacturing. Australia’s currency gained before the nation’s central bank decides on policy today in Melbourne.

    o The U.S. currency lost 0.3 percent to 82.58 cents per New Zealand dollar after dropping 0.6 percent yesterday.

    • USD/JPY The yen strengthened amid speculation traders pared bets against the currency.

    o The dollar lost 0.2 percent to 81.92 yen as of 12:37 p.m. in Tokyo, and earlier touched 81.56, the weakest since March 9.

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-120/

    Daily Market Outlook April 3rd, 2012 By acfx.com

    Commodities


    • Oil fell after the biggest gain in six weeks as a forecast for rising inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer, signaled demand may be easing.

    o Oil for May delivery slid as much as 43 cents to $104.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $104.95 at 1:20 p.m. Sydney time.

    • Gold may advance for a third day as better-than-expected U.S. economic data weakened demand for the dollar as a haven, tempering the impact of slower consumption in India, the largest buyer, as jewelers extended a strike.

    o Spot gold traded at $1,679.63 at 12:27 p.m. in Singapore, after rising as much as 0.2 percent earlier. Bullion climbed 1 percent in the past two days as the dollar fell 0.4 percent against a six-currency basket.

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-120/


    Daily Market Outlook April 3rd, 2012 By acfx.com

    Equities

    • Asian stocks rose for a third day as signs of strength in the world’s two biggest economies, the U.S. and China, bolstered confidence in the global recovery. Japanese shares fell as the yen’s appreciation damped the earnings outlook for the country’s exporters.

    o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 127.45 as of 11:51 a.m. in Tokyo, with about the same number of stocks rising as falling. The measure gained 0.4 percent yesterday, extending its best quarterly rally since the third quarter of 2010.

    • European stocks climbed the most in almost three weeks, erasing earlier losses, as reports showed manufacturing expanded more than forecast in the U.S. and China.

    o The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) advanced 1.5 percent to 267.16 at the close, the biggest gain since March 13. The measure erased losses in the final two hours of trading, after earlier dropping as much as 0.4 percent.

    • U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest level since December 2007, on stronger-than-forecast growth in manufacturing.

    o The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 1,419.04 at 4 p.m. New York time. The index on March 30 completed its biggest first-quarter rally since 1998.
    o The Dow gained 52.45 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,264.49 yesterday.

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-120/

  10. #10
    rohit is offline Member
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    Daily technical outlook for USDCHF as at 4th April 2012
    Trend
    The prevailing Daily trend is short

    Warning
    A potential higher low may be forming.

    Overview
    The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern.

    The stochastic has breached the oversold area but curling upwards. This could be a sign that the indicator is now confirming the higher low in the price action or the indicator is now embedded with further downside to come.

    The Alligator indicator is bearish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a selling opportunity in lower time frames.

    Possible range
    The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 80 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.9017 and 0.9177.

    Long scenario
     Conservative long above 0.9093 is in play. Please see chart for targets.
     Aggressive neutral.

    Short scenario
     Conservative scenario below 9001 being the last daily fractal low.
     Aggressive short wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s so as to identify an entry off a lower time frame.

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-122/

    Daily technical outlook for GBPUSD as at 4th April 2012
    Trend
    The prevailing Daily trend is long. The price action is making higher highs.

    Warning
    None

    Overview
    The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down.

    The stochastic has breached the overbought area which can be seen either as a sign that the GBPUSD needs to take a pause or that the indicator is now embedded with further upside to come.

    The price action has now hit the top off the envelope which may provide resistance to any further upward momentum for the time being.

    The Alligator indicator is bullish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a buying opportunity in lower time frames.

    Possible range
    The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 105 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5802 and 1.6020.

    Long scenario
     Conservative scenario long above 1.6062 being the last daily fractal high.
     Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame.

    Short scenario
     Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5770 being the last daily fractal.
     Aggressive short neutral.


    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-122/



    Daily technical outlook for EURUSD as at 4th April 2012
    Trend
    The prevailing Daily trend is long.

    Warning
    Price action has just put in a lower high. Waiting for a breach of the 15th March swing low to confirm a new down trend. Possible head and shoulders pattern is forming.

    Overview
    The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high which is a warning sign of a possible reversion to the previous multi month down trend. The price action is now bouncing off the top of its regression channel.

    The stochastic has breached the overbought area and now rolled down into its higher neutral range

    The Alligator indicator is bullish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a buying opportunity in lower time frames.

    Possible range
    The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 112 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3120 and 1.3344.

    Long scenario
     Conservative long above 1.3380 being the last daily fractal high.
     Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off lower time frame.

    Short scenario
     Conservative short. The 1.3251 short set up as mentioned in yesterdays post is in play with projected targets being the envelope and Fibonacci extension.
     Aggressive short is neutral.

    http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analy...-analysis-122/

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