A temporary top should be in place at 1.3171 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3149. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first for consolidation. While deeper retreat might be seen, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.2816 supports (38.2% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.3171 should pave the way to 1.3486 key resistances, which is close to 50% retracement level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4939 is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern that started at 1.6039 (2008 high). Such decline should have completed at 1.2042 already. Break of 1.3486 will confirm and should pave the way to 1.5 psychological level in medium term. We'd now stay bullish as long as 1.25 psychological levels holds.


eurusd20120918.jpg


cozforex spot rates