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  1. #1
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up Elliott Wave Forecast! Intraday, 4 Hour & Daily

    Elliott wave analysis for forex pairs, gold, oil, s&p, usd
    Last edited by ewforecast; 02-12-2013 at 02:49 AM.

  2. #2
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up Elliott Wave Outlook For EURUSD and GBPUSD

    EURUSD

    EURUSD finally broke to the upside which was expected after few days of a sideways price action in a shape of a triangle pattern. Pair already passed 1.3400 resistance level which now opens the door for 1.3500 or even 1.3550 level for the next few days. Trend is bullish as long as market trades above 1.3260. Meanwhile any pull-back to 1.3350 should prove corrective.
    eurusd694.3.jpg

    GBPUSD

    Pound fell to a new low against the USD and slowed down just 5 pips from 1.5750 projected level, highlighted yesterday. Notice that pair now has five waves down from 1.6180 which is the first evidence of a coming bounce, especially if we respect the bullish divergence on the RSI. Larger pull-back however could prove corrective and may stop at 1.5900 swing level that will may react as a resistance.
    gbpusd694.3.jpg

  3. #3
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up Euro-Crosses should Extend Even Higher In Risk-On Environment-Elliott Wave

    USD has been trading higher against its rivals during the Asian trading hours. AUD, GBP and CAD are still one of the weakest while JPY is trying to find some support for the near-term. Larger picture of the markets remains unchanged but still very messy.

    Below we have an overlay chart between some major FX currencies compared to S&P Futures and Crude Oil. We can see a strong negative correlation between FX pairs where only the EUR is moving higher in-line with risk-on assets, such oil and S&P. Honestly, we do not like divergences too much, especially not between aussie and S&P which in fact could be signaling for a coming pull-back on stocks.

    Overlay-Daily

    over695.3.jpg

    Anyhow, traders need to trade what they see and not what they think, so at the moment looking for longs on EUR-crosses should be the best choice.
    Below we are looking at EURCAD which is trading higher in wave (iii) that may slow down around 1.3630. Ideally we will see a fourth wave pull-back from there and back to 1.3500 which could be a long opportunity for short-term traders to catch wave (v) rally.

    EURCAD 1h

    eurcad695.3.jpg

  4. #4
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up GBPUSD : Price Could Retrace To 1.5800-1.5900 Within Larger Downtrend

    Jan 29 2013
    Final stages of wave 3)
    Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. Thatís called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case thatís comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.

    gbpusd695.3.jpg

  5. #5
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress

    Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.
    Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.


    gbpusd696.3.jpg

  6. #6
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up AUDUSD Could Make A Corrective Bounce Back to 1.0465 Before Turns Bearish Again

    AUDUSD reversed nicely lower yesterday and already made a new swing low, which means that pair has now five wave down from 1.0600 high, called an impulsive wave. In Elliott wave theory impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we are ready for more aussie weakness but could see a corrective retracement back to 1.0465 before downtrend resumes. There is a Fibo zone around 1.0370 and December low just beneath it that could cause a bounce.

    audusd697.3.jpg

  7. #7
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up EURUSD: New Pull-back Could Be A New Long Opportunity

    EURUSD is trading nicely higher since we called end of a wave ii) pull-back at 1.3413. Notice that market moved higher in five waves from that swing low, which represents impulsive wave iii) of a larger five wave rally. As such, we favour more upside on EURUSD, even towards 1.3700 but before that be aware of a corrective wave iv) retracement back to 1.3550. Larger trend however remains up as long as 1.3480 is not breached, therefore trader should stick with longs.
    If you are wondering why 1.3480 level is important; its because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one, otherwise Elliott Wave rule of impulse would be violated and new, different wave count should then be considered.

    eurusd698.3.jpg

  8. #8
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up EURUSD Gains Slowed Down At 1.3700, But Only Temporary

    EURUSD has extended its gains on Friday but then stopped at 138.2% Fibonacci extension level of wave i) measured from wave ii) low. In fact, pair found resistance after five waves up from 1.3414 so actually corrective retracement should not be a surprise as we expect a pull-back of a red wave iv). With that said, keep in mind that pull-back will be only temporary at may find a base around 1.3550/80 zone.
    Only a break beneath 1.3480 would invalidate the wave count and suggests that EURUSD is ready for a sizeable decline.

    eurusd698.3.jpg
    Last edited by ewforecast; 02-04-2013 at 12:06 AM.

  9. #9
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up EURUSD Update II: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action (Elliott Wave)

    24 hours back we were still observing bullish counts on EURUSD, but sharp fall invalidate it, which means that something is changing. Notice that pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday.

    eurusd698.3.jpg

  10. #10
    ewforecast is offline Member
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    Thumbs up USD Index Is Bullish For the Near-term Which Will Keep the EURUSD Bellow 1.3710

    USD Index has recovered very sharply from below 79.00 level. Recovery was impulsive so we need to respect this type of a price action, thatís why we turned bullish on the USD for a few days. Always when market will make just a corrective pull-back you need to remember that structure still needs to be made in three waves. If we look on our chart then we can clearly see that rise from the low is actually only in one completed leg; thatís wave (a), so be aware of more upside in this week. Ideally market is forming an (a)-(b)-(c) retracement, called a zig-zag towards 80.15-80.50 region. At that zone you will also notice a trend-line connected from November 16 which could react as a resistance if tested of-course.
    For the very near-term we could see deeper levels in wave (b) with possible test of 79.40 region before wave (c) breaks higher. With higher near-term prediction for the USD be aware of more weakness on EURUSD.

    dx670.4.jpg
    ew-forecast

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