Thread: AceTraderFx Oct 24 : DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
24 Oct 2013 01:03GMT

Trend Daily Chart : Up

Daily Indicators : Neutral

21 HR EMA : 1.6172

55 HR EMA : 1.6172

Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways

Hourly Indicators : Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI : 43

14 HR DMI : -ve

Daily Analysis : Consolidation b4 marginal fall

Resistance
1.6260 - 01 Oct high
1.6225 - Last Fri's high
1.6181 - Mon's high

Support
1.6119 - Y'day's low
1.6064 - Last Wed's high, now sup
1.6010 - Last Tue's high, now sup

. GBP/USD - 1.6195... Despite edging higher to 1.6258 in Asian morning on
Wed, failure to penetrate Oct's 1.6260 top triggered profit-taking. Cable tanked
in early European morning b4 extending fall to session low of 1.6119 after MPC
minutes. The pound later pared its losses n rebounded to 1.6176 in NY afternoon.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, as y'day's rise to 1.6258 was accom-
panied by bearish divergences on the hourly indicators, subsequent selloff to
1.6119, which also happened to be the minimum 38.2% r of 1.5894-1.6258 suggests
price wud consolidate below Oct's 1.6260 top n choppy trading with downside bias
remains. However, as mentioned in our previous update, cable's rally fm 1.5894
signals upmove fm Jul's 3-year trough at 1.4814 has resumed n abv 1.6260 wud
extend to 1.6310/11 (Sep 2012 peak n 50% proj. of 1.5427-1.6260 measured fm
1.5894 respectively) but price wud hold well below 2013 peak at 1.6380.

. Today, we are holding a short position in anticipation of weakness to
1.6100 but 1.6076 (50% r of 1.5894-1.6258) shud hold. Only a daily close abv
1.6225 wud confirm correction fm 1.6258 is over, yields 1.6258/60.

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
25 Oct 2013 00:47GMT

Trend Daily Chart : Up

Daily Indicators : Neutral

21 HR EMA : 1.6189

55 HR EMA : 1.6182

Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways

Hourly Indicators : Neutral

13 HR RSI : 55

14 HR DMI : -ve

Daily Analysis : Consolidation b4 marginal fall

Resistance
1.6310 - Sep 21 2012 high
1.6260 - 01 Oct high
1.6223 - Y'day's high

Support
1.6119 - Y'day's low
1.6064 - Last Wed's high, now sup
1.6010 - Last Tue's high, now sup


. GBP/USD - 1.6187... The British pound proved to be a little tricky to trade
y'day as despite initial bounce to 1.6223 in European morning, price retreated
sharply to 1.6138 at NY open. However, cable pared its losses n staged a strg
recovery to 1.6213 in NY afternoon b4 falling again at Asian open.

. Y'day's choppy trading suggests price wud be confined inside nr term range
of 1.6119-1.6258 for today n consolidation with mild downside bias wud be seen
but said lower lvl wud hold. Looking at the bigger picture, as mentioned in our
previous update, cable's rally fm 1.5894 to 1.6258 on Wed signals upmove fm
Jul's 3-year trough at 1.4814 wud resume soon n abv Oct's peak at 1.6260 wud
extend gain to 1.6310/11 (Sep 2012 peak n 50% proj. of 1.5427-1.6260 measured fm
1.5894 respectively) next week/early Nov but price wud hold well below 2013 peak
at 1.6380 due to loss of momentum.

. Today, we are holding a short position in anticipation of a re-test of
y'day's low at 1.6138 but sup at 1.6116/19 shud hold n yield rebound. Only a
daily close abv 1.6223 wud abort near term bearish bias on the pound.

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
01 Nov 2013 01:34GMT

Trend Daily Chart Sideways

Daily Indicators Turning down

21 HR EMA 1.6041

55 HR EMA 1.6053

Trend Hourly Chart Near term down

Hourly Indicators Neutral

13 HR RSI 49

14 HR DMI -ve

Daily Analysis Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.6165 - Hourly res, Oct 28
1.6119 - Last Wed's low, now res
1.6079 - Y'day's high

Support
1.5999 - Y'day's low
1.5940 - Oct 17 low
1.5894 - Oct 16 low


. GBP/USD - 1.6025... Despite initial weakness to 1.6006 ahead of European opening, failure to penetrate Wed's low at 1.5999 prompted active short-covering n price rebounded to 1.6070 due to cross-buying of gbp vs eur in NY morning. However, renewed selling interest pushed cable back down to 1.6031 nr NY close.

. The outlook remains pretty much the same as our prev. update. Looking at the daily n hourly charts, this week's selloff to 1.5999 (Wed) suggests near
term rise fm 1.5894 (Oct 16 low) has ended at 1.6258 last Wed n consolidation below Oct's near 9-month high at 1.6260 wud continue with downside bias. The price action fm 1.6260 cud also be unfolding into a triangle (a-leg at 1.5894, b-leg 1.6258 n present decline is the c-leg), if this view holds true, then then 2-3 more weeks of choppy sideways trading is in store.

. Today, in view of abovementioned scenario, we are holding short for weakness to 1.5975, however, 1.5964 (80.9% r of 1.4894-1.6258) wud hold n yield recovery. On the upside, only abv 1.6119 wud abort bearishness on the pound n risk stronger gain to 1.6165 next week.
*** T.G.I.F. ***

WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
03 Nov 2013 23:53GMT

Trend Daily Chart: Sideways

Daily Indicators: Turning down

21 HR EMA :1.5955

55 HR EMA : 1.5998

Trend Hourly Chart : Near term down

Hourly Indicators : Rising fm o/s

13 HR RSI : 27

14 HR DMI : -ve

Daily Analysis : Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.6040 - Last Fri's European high
1.5999 - Last Wed's low
1.5953 - Last Fri's European low

Support
1.5894 - Oct's low (16th)
1.5818 - 38.2% r of 1.5102-1.6260
1.5753 - -Jun 17 high

. GBP/USD - 1.5923 ... Although cable also fell in tandem with eur/usd last week, active selling of eur/gbp cross limited sterling's downside some what, price weakened to a fresh 2-week low of 1.5908 on Fri.

. Looking at the daily chart, despite the recent volatile broad sideways
move inside recent 1.5894-1.6260 range, anticipated selloff in the euro suggests cable wud also come under selling pressure in this week, a breach of 1.5894 wud confirm MT rise fm 2013 3-year trough at 1.4814 (Jul) has indeed formed a top earlier at 1.6260 on the 1st day of Oct n correction of the intermediate rally fm 1.5102 wud knock the pound to 1.5818, being a 'minimum' 38.2% r, a daily close below there wud send price lower twd 1.5681 (50% r) later this month. In view of abv bearish scenario, selling cable on recovery is favoured n only a daily close abv 1.6079 wud prolong consolidation, risk 1.6119/24.

. Today, expect initial sideways trading in Asia as Tokyo market is closed
n reckon 1.5953 wud cap intra-day recovery n yield test of said daily sup at
1.5894, break wud extend recent erratic fall to 1.5840/50.

DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
05 Mar 2014 00:40GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Neutral

21 HR EMA
1.6675

55 HR EMA
1.6685

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Turning up

13 HR RSI
48

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.6823 - Feb's 4-year high
1.6769 - Last Fri's high
1.6717 - Y'day's high

Support
1.6640 - Y'day's low
1.6617 - Last Thur's low
1.6583 - Feb 24 low


. GBP/USD - 1.6671... Although the British pound staged a brief but strg
rebound fm 1.6640 (Asia) to 1.6717 (Europe) as tension on Russia-Ukraine eased,
renewed selling interest pressued cable to 1.6651 in New York b4 stabilising.

. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, cable's strg retreat fm last Fri's
top at 1.6769 to 1.6640 y'day suggests the rebound fm last Mon's 1.6583 low has
indeed made a top there n as long as 1.6769 holds, 'choppy' consolidation below
Feb's 4-year peak at 1.6823 wud continue with downside bias. The price action fm
there is possibly developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 1.6583; b-leg
: 1.6769 n c-leg decline is still unfolding n may bring weakness twds 1.6617 n
possibly twds 1.6600, however, anticipated low readings on hourly oscillators
shud limit downide to 1.6583. Only below 1.6583 wud risk stronger retracement of
the MT intermediate rise fm 1.6252 to 1.6538 (50% r).

. In view of abv consolidative view, we're trading cable on both sides of
the market today. On the upside, only abv 1.6769 res wud signal correction fm
1.6823 is over n MT rise fm 2013 2-year trough at 1.4814 (Jul) may resume n
extend gain to 1.6936 (61.8% proj. of 1.6252-1.6823 fm 1.6583) later.