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Thread: Daily market news from Cozfx

  1. #101
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: Euro trading tad lower, ahead of Germany’s construction PMI data

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rise 1.58% against the USD and closed at 1.1095.

    In economic news, the final print of the Euro-zone’s final Markit services PMI remained steady at 53.6 in January, in line with market expectations. Moreover, Euro-zone’s retail sales rebounded for the first time in 4 months by 0.3% in December, at par with market expectations and compared to a drop of 0.3% in the preceding month. On the other hand, Germany’s final Markit services PMI unexpectedly fell to a level of 55.0 in January while markets expected it to remain steady at 55.4.

    The greenback lost ground, after the release of dismal US service sector data and dovish comments made by a top Fed official.

    Yesterday, data showed that the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined more-than-expected to a near two-year low level of 53.5 in January, from 55.8 in the previous month and lower than market expectations for a fall to a level of 55.1. Further, the New York Fed President, William Dudley, hinted that the recent global market turmoil might adversely affect the US growth outlook which in turn could prompt the central bank to delay its next interest-rate hike.

    In other economic news, the final Markit services PMI surprisingly declined to a level of 53.2 in January, hitting its lowest level since October 2013, thus further indicating that economic growth slowed in the country. Meanwhile, investors expected it to remain steady at 53.7.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.0947 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0804; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.119, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1289.

    Moving ahead, investors will look forward to Germany’s construction PMI data, scheduled to be released in a few hours. Additionally, the US initial jobless claims and factory orders data, due later in the day, will attract a lot of market attention.


    (COZ forex UK)

  2. #102
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    COZfx: USD/CAD drops after US data before the Fed minutes

    COZforex: The US dollar dropped against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, after the release of mixed US economic reports and as investors remained cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.

    USD/CAD hit 1.3783 amid early US trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3797, declining 0.47%. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3704, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 1.3967, the high of February 12.

    The Federal Reserve said that industrial production increased by 0.9% last month, beating expectations for a gain of 0.4%. Industrial production dropped by 0.7% in December, whose figure was revised down from a previously reported fall of 0.4%.

    Earlier Wednesday, the US Commerce Department said that housing starts fell 3.8% to hit 1.099 million units last month from December’s total of 1.143 million units. Analysts had expected a rise 2.5% to 1.170 million.

    Market participants were eyeing the minutes of the Fed’s February policy meeting due later in the day for hints on the timing of future interest rate hikes.
    In Canada, data showed that foreign securities purchases declined by C$1.41 billion in December after a C$2.94 billion increase in November, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated C$2.58 billion gain.

    Separately, the Canadian dollar found support as oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, amid discussions between OPEC members and Tehran to convince Iran to join an oil production freeze deal.


    (COZ forex UK)

  3. #103
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    COZfx: ECB minutes give strong hints of more aggressive easing in March

    COZforex: For the last trading session, the EUR dropped 0.2% against the USD and closed at 1.1106, after the ECB’s meeting minutes hinted for more aggressive actions on monetary easing.

    The minutes of the ECB’s recent monetary policy meeting revealed that risk to the Euro-zone economy has increased in the current year, amid volatility in financial markets and turmoil in emerging economies while slowdown in China was also clouding the outlook. The minutes also indicated that the central bank would expand stimulus at its meeting next month, as the governing council was unanimous to conclude that its current policy stance needed to be reviewed and possibly reconsidered when it meets next on 10 March.

    Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, a leading think tanker, cut Euro-zone’s growth forecast to 1.4% for 2016 and 1.7% for 2017, from an earlier forecast of 1.8% and 1.9% respectively in November. It also cut the global growth forecast to 3.0% in 2016 in its interim economic outlook, from a 3.3% forecasted in November, and called for urgent action from policymakers to push up global growth.

    In the US, initial jobless claims fell unexpectedly to a 3 month low level of 262.0K in the week ended 13 February, thus pointing towards a resilient labour market. Meanwhile investors expected for a rise to a level of 275.0K, following a reading of 269.0K in the previous week.

    Separately, the OECD projected the US economy to grow by 2.0% in 2016 and 2.2% in 2017, down from an earlier forecast of 2.5% and 2.4% respectively.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.1080 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1036; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1159, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1194.


    (COZ forex UK)

  4. #104
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    COZfx: Mark Carney stated the BoE could cut the interest rate to zero

    COZforex: For the last trading session, the GBP dropped 0.9% against the USD and closed at 1.4025, after the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, hinted for additional stimulus in the economy.

    Yesterday, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, in a speech to the Treasury select committee, mentioned that the central bank has “considerable room” to ease the monetary policy and it might cut interest rates to zero or engage in additional assets purchase programme, if the outlook worsens. Meanwhile, he downplayed the probability of deploying negative interest rates.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 1.398, with the GBP trading 0.32% lower from yesterday’s close.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.3911 and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.3842; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.4102, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.4223.

    Looking ahead, investors await the release of UK’s BBA mortgage approvals data for January, slated to be released in a few hours.


    (COZ forex UK)

  5. #105
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    COZfx: AUD extends its gains in the Asian session

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD rise 0.59% against the USD and closed at 0.7232.

    LME Copper prices rose 1.52% or $69.5/MT to $4655.0/MT; Meanwhile, Aluminum prices rise 3.09% or $48.0/MT to $1600.0/MT.

    Early this morning, in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, house price index rise by 2.5% YoY in January, following a gain of 1.6% in the previous month.

    Separately, the PBOC Governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, stated that China’s economic fundamentals remain sound and also hinted that further interest rate cuts are on the table. Further, he added that the central bank’s monetary policy still has more room and tools to tackle downward pressure in the economy but ruled out any possibility of further devaluation of the Yuan.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.7182 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.7123; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.7279, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.7317.

    Going ahead, market participants will closely monitor the RBA interest rate decision along with the release of Australia’s Q4 GDP, trade balance and retail sales data, all scheduled to release next week.


    (COZ forex UK)

  6. #106
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    COZfx: Canada’s GDP expanded more than expected on a monthly basis in December

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD dropped 0.82% against the CAD and closed at 1.3423.

    The Canadian dollar gained ground, after Canada’s GDP expanded more-than-anticipated by 0.2% in December, after expanding by 0.3% in the preceding month, and compared to market expectations for a rise of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the annualised GDP expanded by 0.8% on a basis in Q4 2015, while markets expected it to stagnate. The nation’s economy had expanded by a revised 2.4% in the previous quarter.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.3361 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.3292; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.3523, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.3616.

    With no economic releases in Canada today, trading trend in the CAD are expected to be determined by global macroeconomic factors.


    (COZ forex UK)

  7. #107
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    COZfx: No plan to cut interest rates further into negative territory for now, says the BoJ Governor

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD rise 0.13% against the JPY and closed at 113.71.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 113.64, with the USD trading 0.06% lower from yesterday’s close.

    Earlier today, the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, ruled out the possibility of further interest rate cuts into negative territory at this point. He also reiterated that the central bank is closely monitoring global risks, and won’t hesitate to take necessary actions to achieve the inflation target.

    In other economic news, data indicated that Japan’s labour cash earnings rose by 0.4% YoY in January, in line with market expectations, compared to a revised flat reading in the preceding month.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 113.16 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 112.68; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 114.20, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 114.76.

    Going forward, Japan’s Q4 GDP, consumer confidence index and trade balance data, all slated to release next week, would garner a lot of market attention.


    (COZ forex UK)

  8. #108
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    COZfx: EUR/USD inches down ahead of pivotal ECB Governing Council meeting

    COZforex: EUR/USD inched down on Wednesday, as currency traders remained cautious ahead of a highly-anticipated interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.

    The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.0946 and 1.1035, before settling fractionally lower at 1.0999. EUR/USD has been relatively steady over the last two and a half weeks, closing in a band between 1.086 and 1.102 in each of the last 14 sessions. Since the start of the 2016 calendar year, the euro has edged up its American counterpart by approximately 1.35%.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.0709, the low from January 5 and was met with resistance at 1.1378, the high from Feb. 11.

    As expected, foreign exchange traders were hesitant to make any major moves in advance of Thursday's closely-watched ECB Governing Council meeting in Frankfurt. In recent weeks, ECB president Mario Draghi has sent strong signals that the central bank will approve further easing initiatives as a means for bolstering economic growth throughout the euro zone and staving off inflation. When the central bank last met in January, it held its benchmark interest rate at a record-low of 0.05. The ECB could also lower its deposit and margin facility rates, while increasing the scope of its €60 billion a month bond buying program.

    The euro has struggled against the dollar since last January when the ECB announced the launching of a comprehensive Quantitative Easing program aimed at staving off deflation and bolstering growth in the area. The program involves the purchase of €60 billion a month of assets by the central bank in order to increase the amount of money supply available for banks to lend money to businesses and individuals. Large-scale easing initiatives also typically push interest rates lower, reducing domestic investments by foreign purchasers and weakening the local currency against its main rivals.

    Analysts from ING have estimated that EUR/USD could fall as much as 1.5% if the ECB approves added stimulus, including raising the total of monthly asset purchases by as much as €5 billion. In addition, a group of a dozen analysts forecasted that the Governing Council could lower the deposit between 10 and 20 basis points and extend the bond buying program from anywhere between three and six months.


    (COZ forex UK)

  9. #109
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    COZfx: USD/CAD close to 4-month lows despite Canadian data

    COZforex: The US dollar dropped near 4 month lows against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, despite the release of downbeat Canadian jobs data, as rising oil prices continued to support demand for the Canadian currency.

    USD/CAD hit 1.3234 amid early US trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3253, retreating 0.70%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said: USD/CAD was likely to find support at 1.3223, the low of March 9 and a four-month low and resistance at 1.3446, the high of March 9.

    Statistics Canada said the number of employed people dropped by 2,300 in February, compared to expectations for a 9,000 increase and after a 5,700 drop the previous month.

    The report also showed that Canada’s unemployment rate ticked up to a 3 year high of 7.3% last month from 7.2% in January. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged in February.

    The Canadian dollar remained supported however, as oil prices continued to rise and were hovering at three-month highs above $38 a barrel.


    (COZ forex UK)

  10. #110
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    COZfx: Sterling at 2-week lows ahead of UK budget statement

    COZforex: The pound was at 2 week lows against the dollar on Wednesday after as investors awaited the UK annual budget later in the day, but losses were held in check after the latest employment report showed a pick-up in wage growth.

    GB/USD was down 0.36% at 1.4100 from around 1.4124 ahead of the release of the jobs data. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said: GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.4078 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.4021; Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.4238, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4340.

    The Office for National Statistics reported that Britain’s unemployment rate remained steady at a 10-year low of 5.1%, in line with forecasts.

    The claimant count, which measures the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, fell by 18,000 in February to 717,000.
    Wage growth picked up slightly, with earnings, including bonuses, up 2.1% from a year earlier in the 3 months to January from 1.9% in the three months to December. Economists had forecast an increase of 2.0%.

    Excluding bonuses, wages rose 2.2%, up from 2.0% in the last three months of 2015 and compared to a forecast of 2.1%.

    Sentiment on sterling remained fragile with Britain's Chancellor George Osborne to deliver the country's annual budget later in the day.
    The pound was under pressure as uncertainty over the outcome of a looming referendum on Britain’s future in the European Union continued to weigh.


    (COZ forex UK)

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