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  1. #21
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: NZD/USD weekly outlook; 16/3 – 20/3

    COZforex: The New Zealand dollar edged lower against its US counterpart on Friday, as investors readjusted positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week.

    NZD/USD hit 0.7188 on Wednesday; the pair's lowest since February 3, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7344 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.62% for the day and 0.29% lower for the week.

    Demand for the US dollar continued to be underpinned after stronger-than-forecast nonfarm payrolls report for February released earlier in March solidified expectations for higher interest rates.

    The Federal Reserve is expected to begin raising interest rates around the middle of this year and investors were looking ahead to next week’s policy statement to see if it would drop its reference to being "patient" before raising rates.

    Meanwhile, the kiwi rallied more than 1% on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold, citing strong economic growth. In a widely expected move, the RBNZ held its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% and signalled that borrowing costs should remain unchanged through 2017.

    Commenting on the decision, RBNZ Graeme Wheeler said "Our situation is quite different from some of those countries that have changed monetary policy or cut interest rates."

    The economy is "growing at 3.25%, perhaps 3.5% and we're projecting it to continue to grow at those sorts of rates over the next 2 years," he added.

    In the week ahead, market players will focus on the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, which could provide indications on how soon it might raise interest rates.

    If the Fed decides to remove a reference to "remaining patient," in its statement, it typically indicates that interest rates could be raised at either of its next two meetings. After next week's meeting, the FOMC will meet in June and September.


    (COZ forex UK)

  2. #22
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    Post COZfx: AUD/USD slips lower, Fed statement on tap

    COZforex: The Australian dollar edged lower against its US counterpart on Wednesday, as sentiment on the greenback improved ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy statement due later in the day.

    AUD/USD hit 0.7602 amid late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7612, slipping 0.07%. In technical analysis, AUD/USD was likely to find support at 0.7558, the low of March 11 and resistance at 0.7730, the high of March 12.

    Market participants were eyeing Wednesday’s Fed statement to see if it would drop its reference to being patient before raising rates and signal that it is ready to hike rates depending on economic data.

    The US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that housing starts declined by 17.0% last month to hit 897,000 units from January’s total of 1.081 million units, worse than expectations for a decline of 2.4% to 1.049 million.

    The report also showed that the number of building permits issued last month increased by 3.0% to 1.092 million units from January’s total of 1.060 million. Analysts expected building permits to fall by 0.5% to 1.065 million units in February.

    The Australian dollar had found some support on Tuesday after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest meeting showed that the bank seees an advantage in waiting for more economic data before lowering interest rates further.


    (COZ forex UK)

  3. #23
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: Yen continues its gains this morning

    COZforex: On Friday, the USD weakened 0.61% against the JPY and closed at 120.08.

    In the Asian session, the pair is trading at 119.89, with the USD trading 0.16% lower from Friday’s close.

    Early this morning, the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda stated that he had mentioned to the Japanese PM, Shinzo Abe that the nation’s inflation was decelerating due to falling oil prices and further added that Japan’s economy remained on a gradual recovery path.

    In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 119.41, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 118.92. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 120.79, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 121.69.


    (COZ forex UK)

  4. #24
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: Germany’s IFO business climate index rise for the fifth consecutive month

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rise 0.50% against the USD and closed at 1.0967, on the back of stronger than expected IFO data in Germany.

    Yesterday, data showed that Germany’s IFO business climate index rise for the fifth consecutive month to a reading of 107.9 in March, from previous month’s level of 106.8 and beating market expectations of a rise to a level of 107.3, suggesting that growth in the Euro-zone’s biggest economy rebounded again in the first quarter of 2015. In addition, the nation’s IFO business expectation index improved more than expected to a level of 103.9 in March, higher than market expectations which projected a rise to a reading of 103.0. In the previous month, the index had registered a level of 102.5.

    Separately, the Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, raised concerns about low inflation in the US. He further opined that the central bank should keep its interest rates low until 2016 as uncertainty continues to hover over the health of the global economy.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.0915, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0856. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1023, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1074.

    Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by Germany’s GfK consumer confidence data, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims data in the US, scheduled later today would be closely monitored by the market participants.


    (COZ forex UK)

  5. #25
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: USD/CAD moves higher in early trade

    COZforex: The US dollar was higher against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday, as the greenback regained some strength after weakening broadly due to Friday's disappointing report on US employment.

    USD/CAD hit 1.2522 amid early US trade, the pair's highest since April 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2519, gaining 0.30%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.2435, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.2400. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.2507, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.2544.

    The dollar came under broad selling pressure on Friday after the Labor Department reported that the US economy added 126,000 new jobs in March, less than half of February’s gain and the smallest increase since December 2013.

    The report added to doubts over the strength of the economic recovery, prompting investors to push back expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve to the end of the year from midyear.


    (COZ forex UK)

  6. #26
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: Aussie drops further as China data, consumer survey downbeat

    COZforex: The Australian dollar dropped further on Wednesday after a spate of data from China and a consumer sentiment survey at home pointed to subdued economic prospects.

    AUD/USD traded at 0.7611, down 0.21%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 119.59, up 0.16%. EUR/USD was quoted at 1.0636, down 0.19%. NZD/USD rose to 0.7538, up 0.23%, on remarks about Auckland's surging housing market.

    China's first quarter GDP rise 7.0% year-on-year, matching expectations, while industrial output gained 5.6%, below the 6.9% seen and retail sales increased 10.2%, lower than 10.9% expected and fixed assets investment gained 13.5%, less than the 13.8% seen.

    Earlier, the April Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey for Australia dipped 3.2% to 96.2, following a 1.2% dropped in March, prompting related commentary that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut its cash rate by 25 basis points in April to a record low 2.0%.

    Separately, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand warned on Wednesday that housing-market imbalances have increased since late-2014 and are worrying because low inflation excludes monetary policy to counter demand.

    "Since late-2014 housing-market imbalances have become more accentuated-particularly in Auckland where the supply shortage is greatest," RBNZ Deputy Governor Grant Spencer said Wednesday. "This is of concern to the Reserve Bank as it poses a threat to financial and economic stability."


    (COZ forex UK)

  7. #27
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: Euro gain ahead of the Euro-zone’s CPI data

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rise 0.84% against the USD and closed at 1.0766.

    The greenback lost ground, following downbeat initial jobless claims data in the US Data showed that number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to 294 K in the week ended 11 April, compared to prior week’s level of 282 K, while markets were expecting it to decline to a reading of 280 K. On the other hand, continuing claims in the nation surprisingly dropped to 2268 K, its lowest level since December 2000 in the week ended 04 April, compared to market expectations of an advance to 2323.00 K.

    Continuing jobless claims had registered a revised level of 2308.00 K in the previous week. Other economic data revealed that building permits dropped 5.70% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1039.00 K in March, lower than market expectations of 1085.00 K and had registered a revised reading of 1102.00 K in the prior month. Meanwhile, housing starts in the US recorded a rise of 2.00% MoM in March, lower than market expected rise of 15.9% and following a revised drop of 15.3% recorded in February. Also, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index advanced to 7.50, up from prior month’s reading of 5.00, while markets were anticipating the index to climb to a level of 6.00.

    In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.0656 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0543. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0851, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0932.

    Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s consumer prices data, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, the US CPI coupled with the Michigan consumer sentiment indices data, would generate lot of market attention, scheduled later today.


    (COZ forex UK)

  8. #28
    orni308 is offline Senior Member
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    USDJPY has been trading very volatile but there are chances of a good positive trend, its good for making short trades.

  9. #29
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: Gold flat to weaker in early Asia with attention set on Greece debt

    COZforex: Gold prices were flat to weaker in Asia on Wednesday as investors eyed euro zone woes over Greece that threatens to lead to a possible exit of the single-currency union.

    On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for June delivery eased 0.04% to $1,202.60 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, Silver futures for May delivery fell 0.09% to 15.993 a troy ounce.

    Overnight, gold futures edged up on Tuesday reversing some of its losses during the previous session, as a potential Greek default on its sovereign debt remained in focus.

    On Tuesday, Jeroen Dijisselbloem, the head of the euro group of prominent finance ministers, steadfastly insisted that Greece must meet all of its obligations in the coming weeks if it wants to remain in the euro zone. Next month, Greece owes the International Monetary Fund a payment of more than €773 million on a loan under the IMF's first Greek bailout in 2010, before it must meet two separate obligations of more than €300 million to the IMF in June.

    By late-July, Greece owes an additional €3.45 billion to the European Central Bank for bonds related to a 2012 default.
    "The money is starting to run out," Dijisselbloem told European broadcaster RTL.

    Dijisselbloem remained adamant that every effort must be undertaken to prevent a Greek exit from the euro zone, a move that has earned the popular moniker "Grexit," in recent weeks.

    "If Greece leaves the euro zone you would get very dangerous instability," he added. "It's in the interests of Greece and the euro zone as a whole to avoid that."


    (COZ forex UK)

  10. #30
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: USD unchanged against JPY, after Obama-Abe express confidence in TPP

    COZforex: The Japanese yen remained relatively unchanged against the US dollar on Tuesday, after US president Barack Obama and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe indicated they are deeply confident that a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and nearly a dozen Asian-Pacific nations can be reached.

    USD/JPY dropped slightly in US afternoon trading to YEN 118.89 roughly an hour after the start of the joint news conference at the Rose Garden on the steps of the White House. Earlier, the dollar moved above 119 to a session-high of 119.20, before falling to a near daily-low of 118.81 minutes before the beginning of the press conference.

    In July, 2013, Japan became the 12th nation to join negotiations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade agreement involving the United States, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. The United States and its TPP partners envision the agreement as “a comprehensive, next-generation regional agreement that liberalizes trade and investment and addresses new and traditional trade issues and 21st century challenges.”

    While a large percentage of US businesses reportedly welcome Japan's participation in the pact, the trade agreement has been met with resistance by the US auto industry and the United Auto Workers union. A cap on the amount of rice the US can sell to Japan without encountering a tariff could be another sticking point in the negotiations.

    One day before Abe will become the first Japanese prime minister to address a Joint Session of Congress, Abe said significant progress has been made in negotiations.

    "We will continue to cooperate to lead the TPP talks through its last phase," Abe said. "We have confirmed that we will work together for the earliest, successful completion of the talks."

    The yen has stabilized somewhat against the dollar after hitting an 8 year low at 121.47, as the aftershocks of a Japanese sales-tax hike last spring continued to be felt.


    (COZ forex UK)

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