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  1. #1
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    Post Daily market news from Cozfx

    COZfx: RBA minutes released its latest monetary policy meeting

    COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD weakened 0.64% against the USD to close at 0.8701, after Australia’s CB leading index dropped 0.3% in September, compared to a revised fall of 0.1% in August.

    In commodities, LME Copper prices rise 0.85% or $57.0/MT to $6752.0/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices rose 1.44% or $29.0/MT to $2049.5/MT.

    Earlier today, the RBA minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting reported that board members were of the view that the nation’s economy was likely to grow at a moderate pace, before gradually picking up to an above-trend pace towards the end of 2016. Also, the central bank expressed concerns over the elevated value of the Aussie and indicated that the nation’s mining-led growth is weighing on the Australian economy.

    Elsewhere in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, actual FDI climbed 1.30% in October, compared to an advance of 1.9% registered in the preceding month. Meanwhile, house price index in China eased 2.60% on a YoY basis, in October, following a drop of 1.30% registered in the prior month.

    In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.8679, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.8636. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.8780, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.8838.

    Trading trends in the AUD today would be determined by the RBA Governor, Glenn Stevens’ speech, scheduled shortly.


    (COZ forex UK)

  2. #2
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    Cozfx: NZD/USD weekly outlook: 24 - 28Nov

    COZforex: The New Zealand dollar moved higher against its US counterpart on Friday, as a surprise rate cut in China and hopes that the European Central Bank will introduce additional stimulus fuelled optimism over the global economy.

    NZD/USD hit a daily high of 0.7946 on Friday, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7882 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.16% for the day. In technical analysis, NZD/USD is likely to find support at 0.7806, the low from November 20, and resistance at 0.7973, the high from November 18.

    The kiwi was boosted by news that the People's Bank of China cut its benchmark one-year deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% and trimmed its 1 year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6%. The move came in response to recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
    Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated on Friday that the central bank is ready to expand its stimulus program to raise inflation and inflation expectations as quickly as possible. Draghi also warned about weak growth in the euro zone, saying that no improvements are expected in the coming months.

    Despite Friday's upbeat performance, NZD/USD still lost 0.3% on the week amid indications a strengthening US economic recovery will force the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates sooner and faster than previously thought.

    In the week ahead, the US is to release a string of economic reports on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, including data on unemployment claims and durable goods orders.


    (COZ forex UK)

  3. #3
    fxtrader505 is offline Senior Member
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    COZfx: USD/CAD erases gains after US data

    COZforex: The US dollar erased gains against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, after the release of a number of disappointing US economic reports and as markets eyed additional US data to come.

    USD/CAD pulled away from 1.1297, the session high, to hit 1.1249 during early U.S. trade, down 0.08%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.1223, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.1182. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1311, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1359.

    The greenback came under pressure after the Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rise to 313,000 last week, a gain of 21,000. It was the highest level since early September.

    The number of continuing claims dropped to a 14-year low of 2.31 million, indicating that the jobs market is still recovering.
    At the same time, official data showed that US personal spending rise 0.2% in October, below forecasts for an increase 0.4%. Personal income rise also rose 0.2%, falling short of forecasts of 0.4%.

    Another report showed that durable goods orders rose 0.4% last month, compared to expectations for a drop of 0.4%, but core durable goods orders fell 0.9%, against forecasts for a 0.5% gain.


    (COZ forex UK)

  4. #4
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    COZfx: GBP/USD drops as dollar rallies on US construction data

    COZforex: The pound dropped against an advancing dollar on Tuesday after data revealed an uptick in US construction activity, which fuelled expectations for the economy to gain steam and keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates next year.

    In US trading on Tuesday, GBP/USD was down 0.55% at 1.5645, up from a session low of 1.5632 and off a high of 1.5743. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5634, and a dropped through could take it to the next support line of 1.5537. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5796, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5862.

    The Census Bureau reported earlier that US construction spending rose 1.1% in October from a month earlier, beating market estimates for a 0.6% gain after a 0.1% contraction in September.
    It was the largest gain since May, and the report boosted the dollar by cementing expectations for the Federal Reserve to hike benchmark borrowing costs in 2015.

    Meanwhile in the UK, construction activity expanded at the slowest rate in more than a year in November, dampening optimism over the country’s economic outlook, according to industry data.

    Market research firm Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply reported that their UK construction purchasing managers' index dropped to a seasonally adjusted 59.4 in November from 61.4 in October. Economists had expected the index to dropped to 61.2 in November.

    "The construction sector remains a strong growth engine within the UK economy, but momentum has undoubtedly cooled since the summer," said Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit and the report's author.

    On Tuesday, the UK is to release what will be a closely watched report on service-sector growth. Meanwhile, the US is to release the ADP report on private-sector job creation as well as industry data on service-sector activity.


    (COZ forex UK)

  5. #5
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    COZfx: EURUSD weekly outlook: 08 to 12Dec14

    COZforex: The euro declined to 2 year lows against the dollar on Friday after the US nonfarm payrolls report for November showed that the US economy added jobs at the fastest rate in nearly 3 years, highlighting the diverging recovery in the US and the euro zone.

    The Labor Department reported that the US economy added 321,000 jobs in November, far more than the 225,000 forecast by economists and the largest monthly increase in almost three years.

    September’s figure was revised up to 243,000 from a previously reported 214,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a 6 year low of 5.8%. The report also showed that average hourly earnings rose by a larger than forecast 0.4% and were 2.1% higher on a year-over-year basis.

    EUR/USD dropped to two-year lows of 1.2272 and settled at 1.2281, off 0.78% for the day. For the week, the pair was down 1.24%.
    The unusually strong jobs report prompted markets to bring forward expectations for the first hike in US interest rates to mid-2015 from September 2015 ahead of the data.

    The euro had moved broadly higher on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that it would not embark on quantitative easing for now, saying the bank would reassess its stimulus program in the first quarter of 2015.

    He said the bank could potentially change the size, scale and composition of its existing stimulus programs and added that governing council remained unanimous that it would take further measures if needed.

    The ECB also substantially revised down its forecasts for growth and inflation and warned that the latest forecasts do not take into account the recent steep drop in oil prices.

    The bank now expects the euro zone economy to grow by just 0.8% this year, 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. It cut its inflation forecast for this year to just 0.5% from 0.6% and to 0.7% in 2015 from 1.1%.


    (COZ forex UK)

  6. #6
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    COZfx: USD/JPY drops as yen gains on Chinese growth concerns

    COZforex: The dollar fell against the yen on Wednesday amid a double shot of greenback profit taking and safe-haven demand for the Japanese currency due to Chinese growth concerns.

    In U.S. trading, USD/JPY was down 0.95% at 118.53, up from a session low of 118.30 and off a high of 119.92. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 117.84, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 116.4. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 120.83, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 122.36.

    The move fueled fears that the China may grow less than anticipated, which fueled demand for safe-haven yen positions that came at the greenback's expense.

    The yen often rises when Japanese stocks fall and growth-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slide.
    On Thursday, the US is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, as well as the weekly report on jobless claims.


    (COZ forex UK)

  7. #7
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    COZfx: GBP/USD dips on upbeat US industrial output report

    COZforex: The pound softened against a firming dollar on Monday after a widely-watched gauge of US industrial production to beat expectations.

    In US trading on Monday, GBP/USD was down 0.37% at 1.5658, up from a session low of 1.5601 and off a high of 1.5747. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 1.5686, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.5664. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5738, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5769.

    The Federal Reserve reported earlier that US industrial production rose by 1.3% in November, beating expectations for a gain of 0.7%.cIndustrial production for October was revised up to 0.1% from a previously reported drop of 0.1%.

    The report added that the capacity utilization rate, a measure of how full firms are using their resources, rise to 80.1% last month from an upwardly revised 79.3% in October, beating market calls for an unchanged reading.

    The pound, meanwhile, continued to come under pressure from disappointing UK construction data released on Friday.

    The UK Office for National Statistics reported that construction output dropped 2.2% in October, disappointing expectations for a 0.8% rise. Construction output rise 2.2% in September, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 1.8% gain.

    On Tuesday in the UK, the Bank of England is to publish its financial stability report. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference about the report.

    The UK is also to release data on consumer inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.


    (COZ forex UK)

  8. #8
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    COZfx: AUD/USD off 5-year lows

    COZforex: The Australian dollar was higher against its US counterpart on Thursday, pulling away from a 5 year trough but gains were expected to remain limited as the Federal Reserve said it expected to start raising interest rates next year.

    AUD/USD hit 0.8163 amid early European trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8161, climbing 0.43%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.8088, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.8032. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.8219, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.8294.

    In commodities, LME Copper prices dropped 1.31% or $84.0/MT to $6306.0/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices dropped 0.61% or $11.5/MT to $1863.5/MT.

    The US dollar was boosted after the Fed said it would be "patient" before raising rates, guidance which it said is consistent with earlier assurances statement that rates would stay low "for a considerable time."

    The central bank acknowledged the improvement in the US labor market and noted that the economy is making progress toward its goals in inflation and employment. At the bank’s post policy meeting press conference Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the Fed was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings" indicating that a move in April at the earliest is possible.

    Also Thursday, Statistics New Zealand reported that the country's gross domestic product increased by 1.0% in the third quarter, compared to expectations for a 0.7% rise and up from a growth rate of 0.7% in the 3 months to June.

    Later in the day, the US was to release data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.


    (COZ forex UK)

  9. #9
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    COZfx: USD/CAD re-approaches 5-years peak

    COZforex: The US dollar rise against its Canadian counterpart on Tuesday, re-approaching the previous week's 5 year high as strong US third quarter economic growth data sent the greenback broadly higher.

    Trading volumes were expected to remain light this week with many investors away for the Christmas holiday and ahead of the New Year's holiday.
    USD/CAD hit 1.1657 amid early US trade, the pair's highest since December 17; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.1666, gaining 0.26%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.1581, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.1543. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1651, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1684.

    Final data showed that US gross domestic product rise 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of 4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June.

    A separate report showed that US durable goods orders slipped 0.7% last month, confounding expectations for a 3.0% increase, after a 0.3% rise in October. Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, dropped 0.4% in November after a 1.0% decline in October, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 1.1% drop.

    The greenback also remained broadly supported after the Federal Reserve signalled last week that it was on track to raise interest rates next year but said it was taking a patient stance.

    In Canada, official data showed that the economy grew at a 0.3% rate in October, beating expectations for a growth rate of 0.1% and down from 0.4% in September.

    Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on consumer sentiment and new home sales.


    (COZ forex UK)

  10. #10
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    COZfx: Gold nearly unchanged still below $1,200

    COZforex: Gold prices were almost unchanged on Monday, holding close to 1 week highs but still remained below the $1,200 threshold as the US dollar's strength continued to weigh.

    On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery were up only 0.04% to $1,195.80. The February contract ended Friday's session 1.86% higher at $1,195.30 an ounce.

    The dollar remained supported after final data last week showed that US gross domestic product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of 4.3% and up from 3.9% in the 3 months to June.

    The strong data fuelled further optimism over the strength of the US economic recovery and added to expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year.

    Higher US interest rates would boost the greenback and weigh on gold, which has benefited from central bank liquidity and a low interest rate environment since the 2008 financial crisis.

    Trading volumes were expected to remain light this week ahead of the New Year's holiday.


    (COZ forex UK)

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