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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #11
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    FOREX NEWS: CRAWLING ALONG SUPPORT. BREAKOUTS ANTICIPATED


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair had an incredibly slow day, despite worse than expected German Retail Sales which normally would weaken the euro. The support was not broken and price moved mostly sideways.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is crawling on 1.0570 support and totally lacks momentum but this behaviour will most likely come to an end today. A breakout and a move outside the range defined by 1.0570 and 1.0660 are expected but the direction of this breakout is difficult to anticipate considering how the pair has been moving lately, so look for a re-test of the broken level and keep in mind that false breaks can occur.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United States release the Manufacturing PMI today at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the only potential market mover of the day for the dollar. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health but as always the impact will be stronger if the actual number differs from analysts’ forecast (which is 50.6), with higher values strengthening the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday the pair managed to break 1.5030 support and touched 1.5000 but soon retraced higher, creating a whipsaw and overall a difficult trading session.



    Technical Outlook

    The bears failed to capitalize on the break of support and on top of that, a bounce is visible at 1.5000 psychological support. The Stochastic is oversold starting to curve upwards and the Relative Strength Index is showing bullish divergence (oscillator makes higher lows while price prints lower lows). All these factors make us anticipate a move upwards, into 1.5100 resistance. As an alternate scenario, a break of 1.5000 will open the door for a touch of 1.4970.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report, along with the results of the Bank Stress Tests. Two hours later, at 9:00 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the results of the Stress Tests and the Stability Report. This will probably be the most volatile time of the day, with strong moves and possibly sharp turns.

    At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI comes out, expected to show a value of 53.7. Higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound but this release is likely to be eclipsed by Mark Carney’s press conference mentioned earlier.

  2. #12
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    FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR VOLATILITY: FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS SITUATION AND EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: U.S. Manufacturing data came out worse than expected yesterday and the greenback felt the consequences, weakening against most of its counterparts and triggering a bullish day for the euro-dollar pair.



    Technical Outlook

    The bullish retracement is likely to extend higher if the current resistance zone can be surpassed. Initial short term resistance is located at 1.0640, followed by 1.0690 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will play an important role because it can become support if the pair closes a full candle above it. We favour the upside but we are in a downtrend so a clean break of 1.0560 can trigger additional movement south.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI is announced, expected to show a change of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.1%. Since this is the main gauge of inflation, which is currently to low, higher numbers will strengthen the euro, potentially having a strong impact.

    Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change. The indicator doesn’t have the huge impact of the NFP which is released two days later but nonetheless, it offers a first look into U.S. employment situation, thus higher numbers than the expected 191K will strengthen the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    Mark Carney’s speech was rescheduled yesterday one hour earlier than initially programmed and overall his attitude was hawkish, expressing optimism about the economic outlook and the Bank Stress Tests results.



    Technical Outlook

    The pound reacted to Carney’s comments by rallying higher against the greenback and hitting 1.5100 zone of resistance. Now it is showing rejection at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and has moved back below 1.5100 so for today we anticipate another attempt to break 1.5000 key support. A lot will depend on the economic data released throughout the day so the technical aspect might be secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The first event that will affect the pair’s movement is the British Construction PMI, a survey of about 170 purchasing managers who will offer their opinion on the health of the construction sector. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, the expected number is 58.4 and figures above it will most likely strengthen the Pound. Later in the day, the pair will be affected by the U.S. jobs indicator mentioned earlier.

  3. #13
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    FOREX NEWS: A BIG DAY FOR THE EURO – ECB ANNOUNCES INTEREST RATE, TALKS ABOUT INCREASED STIMULUS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Inflation in the Eurozone decreased as showed by yesterday’s CPI release and across the ocean, the jobs situation has improved. All this created an overall bearish trading session but support is still holding.



    Technical Outlook

    Although yesterday’s movement wasn’t huge, we expect the dollar strength created by positive jobs data and the euro weakness created by disappointing inflation numbers to bring more downside pressure for the pair. The first barrier in front of the bears is the horizontal support at 1.5060 and the next target is the more important level at 1.0500. A move up will encounter resistance at 1.0640 but we favour the short side.

    Fundamental Outlook

    It’s a big day for the euro as the ECB announces their rate decision today at 12:45 pm GMT. There is no change expected (currently 0.05%) but there has been speculation about increased quantitative easing (QE) so the press conference that follows at 1:30 pm GMT will be even more important than usual. During this conference, ECB President Mario Draghi will discuss the rate decision and a possible increase of the QE but will also answer journalists’ questions so we expect strong movement and we recommend caution during the day.


    GBP/USD

    The British Construction sector showed a worse than expected number, while the greenback benefited from the jobs data, creating a strongly bearish session yesterday and breaking key support.



    Technical Outlook

    The support levels at 1.5000 and 1.4970 were broken decisively yesterday and although the downtrend is now renewed, we expect a rubber band effect and a move higher. This move will likely find resistance around 1.4970 and should be considered just a consequence of the fact that price travelled too low, too fast. In other words, a retracement higher is due, followed by another dip lower; however a close of a four hour candle above 1.5000 could suggest that the downtrend is exhausted.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:30 am GMT the Services PMI comes out, expected to show an increase to 55.1 from the previous 54.9. The indicator measures optimism among purchasing managers from the services sector but usually has a medium impact; higher than expected values are beneficial for the Pound.

    Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, with the topic being monetary policy. Depending on her attitude, the event may create volatility, thus caution is recommended.

  4. #14
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    FOREX NEWS: CURRENCY WARS CONTINUE. FOCUS SHIFTS ON U.S EMPLOYMENT DATA FOR ANOTHER WILD DAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The ECB decided to cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points, in an attempt to raise inflation in the Eurozone. During the press conference that followed ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that ECB’s measures will “ensure accommodative monetary conditions”.



    Technical Outlook

    The euro soared against most of its counterparts and the greenback was no exception. The pair climbed dramatically yesterday, breaking several resistance levels in a move that extended more than 350 pips but the next direction will be heavily dependent on the U.S. jobs situation and a potential rate hike later this month. Such a huge move is likely to retrace lower after a bounce at 1.0900 but considering yesterday’s movement, almost anything is possible so use caution throughout the day.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The technical aspect will be overshadowed today by the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 201K new jobs compared to the previous 271K. The Fed is closely watching employment levels for their decision to raise rates and this makes today’s release more important than usual, with higher numbers strengthening the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    British Services PMI came out higher than expected, strengthening the Pound but the massive move seen on the pair yesterday wasn’t entirely generated by this report.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair moved north through several levels but it appears to have found resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart. Same as with the EUR/USD, the next move will depend on the result of the NFP report but strictly from a technical perspective, we expect a move lower, which can find support at 1.5000. If here price shows rejection, we are likely to see a bounce higher, above the 50 period EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases but the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls will be the highlight of the day, potentially triggering strong moves.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

  5. #15
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    FOREX NEWS: DELAYED IMPACT OF THE NFP RESULTS. THE US DOLLAR HITS BACK


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday’s most anticipated event failed to deliver the volatility we expected and although the NFP report showed that 211K new jobs were created during the past month (forecast 201K), the US Dollar didn’t strengthen substantially.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair did retrace lower on the back of limited US Dollar strength but movement was choppy and difficult to trade. For today we expect slow price action, confined between 1.0825 support and 1.0900 resistance. It is possible that we will see a test of the high created last Thursday (1.0980) but we don’t expect this level to be broken today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today the Eurogroup Meetings take place, attended by political and financial figures from the European Union member states. The event is closed to the press but sometimes participants talk to journalists during the day and once the meetings have concluded, an official statement is released. Increased volatility is possible, depending on the matters discussed.


    GBP/USD

    Choppy movement was seen on the pound-dollar pair as well and the better than expected U.S. employment data didn’t affect much the greenback. Indecision is present as the market searches for the next direction.



    Technical Outlook


    Price stopped close to the level at 1.5100, which now acts as some form of support but a couple of candles closed below it and the rest show long wicks, suggesting indecision. The latest down move is considered just a retracement to the strong up move seen Thursday but a drop below 1.5100 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would suggest that the effects of the better than expected NFP report are starting to show, making 1.5030 the next target.

    Fundamental Outlook


    At 3:00 pm GMT the Governor of the Bank of England will testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. The exact impact is not known but a hawkish attitude will generate Pound strength and a dovish attitude will weaken the currency, bringing the pair lower.

  6. #16
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    FOREX NEWS: MOVING TIMIDLY LOWER. SUPPORT STILL IN THE WAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The effects of the better than expected NFP report were seen during yesterday’s trading session and the pair moved lower in what is still a retracement to the big move seen last week.



    Technical Outlook

    The bears are struggling to break 1.0825 support, with the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic coming out of overbought. If this barrier can be broken, the pair will most likely head towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where it will probably start to move up again. On the other hand, a bounce above 1.0825 would suggest a continuation of the move started last Thursday and at least a touch of 1.0900.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The ECOFIN Meetings are the day’s main event. These are attended by finance ministers from the European Union member states and usually the volatility isn’t much affected, unless some very important talks take place; nonetheless, caution is recommended.


    GBP/USD

    The pair moved lower yesterday, but no major moves occurred and although support was breached, this cannot be considered a clear break.



    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.5075 was broken yesterday but price did not move lower once this happened. Movement is slow and it doesn’t look like the bears have enough strength to reach 1.5000 or even 1.5030. A full candle closed below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average could tilt the balance in favour of the short side and a full candle closed above it would put the bulls in short term control, aiming for 1.5160.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released today at 9:30 am GMT, expected to show a change of -0.1% compared with the previous 0.8%. The manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy, so a drop might weaken the Pound.

    Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is released. The previous number was 0.6% and higher values are beneficial for the Pound but the extent is sometimes limited.

  7. #17
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    FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA IS SCARCE, OSCILLATORS OFFER MIXED SIGNALS, TECHNICAL SIDE PREVAILS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair showed a bullish bias yesterday, bouncing at support and heading into resistance. The day lacked major news announcements and overall we had a calm trading session.



    Technical Outlook

    The bounce at 1.0825 support shows that the bulls are preparing to make another run for 1.0980. For that to happen, 1.0900 resistance must be broken but this is not a major level so if the bullish pressure continues, we are likely to see it broken soon. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought again, but the Stochastic is not showing the same behaviour so the signals are mixed and not very reliable.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day ahead lacks major economic news announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar so we expect a day when price direction will me mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    The British Manufacturing Production numbers showed a worse than expected value and this was the main reason for the drop below support seen yesterday.



    Technical Outlook


    Although the pair moved below 1.5030 and 1.5000 on the back of disappointing economic data, later in the afternoon it erased most of the losses, climbing back into 1.5000. If price will bounce lower here, the level will turn into resistance and we will probably see a move into 1.4895 support during the days to come. The Stochastic is oversold and the Relative Strength Index is approaching the same condition so the oscillators favour a move up, above 1.5000.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom also has a slow day in terms of economic releases so the technical side will be the primary focus of traders around the globe.

  8. #18
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    FOREX NEWS: BANK OF ENGLAND TAKES CENTRE STAGE FOR THE RATE AND STATEMENT RELEASE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday was a good day for the euro as it showed strength, taking the pair into the highs seen during the ECB press conference that took place last week.



    Technical Outlook

    Price is likely to bounce lower around 1.0980 resistance, considering that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving in overbought territory. Also, the pair moved almost 200 pips to the upside without even the smallest retracement and this increases the chances of a bounce lower, with 1.0900 as target. Keep in mind that 1.1000 represents a psychological resistance so that would be another good place for a retracement to start. Overall the picture remains bullish so we expect further upside price action after the said pullback.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The U.S. Unemployment Claims are the day’s only notable event, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 266K compared to the previous 269K. A larger number of unemployed individuals is detrimental for the economy so it may weaken further the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound also had a strong day against the US Dollar, moving strongly above 1.5075 resistance and threatening 1.5160.



    Technical Outlook


    From a technical perspective the resistance at 1.5160 is key for medium-to-short term price movement and the way price behaves here will probably reveal the next direction. Although the price is now moving with strong momentum to the upside, we expect it to bounce lower but a lot of today’s price action will be heavily influenced by the Bank of England and their rate decision so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce their official bank rate along with the Monetary Policy Summary which will outline the reasons behind the rate decision. At the same time a breakdown of the MPC members’ votes is released, showing how each member voted; however, no change is expected, either for the rate (0.50%) or for the members’ stance, but this cluster of events is likely to trigger volatility nonetheless.

  9. #19
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    FOREX NEWS: FED RAISES RATES. WHAT’S NEXT?


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: As expected, the pair showed slow and mostly sideways price action yesterday ahead of the Fed announcement but once the rate was raised to 0.50% as expected, the pair started to pick up speed. It seems like the rate hike was priced in the market and participants needed something more from Fed Chair Yellen but she mentioned that further rate increases will not be abrupt, a fact considered dovish by most traders.



    Technical Outlook

    At rate time the pair briefly went below 1.0900 but Yellen’s dovish speech at the press conference triggered US Dollar weakness and a move into 1.1000. Nonetheless, we must keep in mind that the rate was raised and further tightening will follow so we are likely to see downside action in the near future. The support zone created by 1.0900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average represents the first bearish target, while resistance sits at 1.1040.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, expected to show a value of 109.2. The survey is based on the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current economic conditions and outlook for the next 6 months; the large sample size of the survey is mostly why it has a big impact on the market. Higher than expected values usually trigger euro strength.


    GBP/USD

    The pair was a bit more energetic than the euro-dollar but still, direction until the U.S. rate was unclear. Movement remained irregular even after the rate announcement and press conference.



    Technical Outlook

    Price is still confined inside the channel created by 1.5075 resistance and 1.5000 support and the direction of the breakout will probably decide the path of the pair for the medium term. We expect to see US Dollar strength and a clean break of 1.5000, followed by a move into 1.4955.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound will be affected today by the British Retail Sales, which come out at 9:30 am GMT and are expected to post a change of 0.6% compared with the previous -0.6%. Increased numbers show a thriving economy and usually strengthen the Sterling.

  10. #20
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    FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS AS THE EFFECTS OF THE RATE HIKE BECOME CLEARER


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The effects of the Fed decision to raise the interest rate to 0.50% became clearer yesterday and we saw US Dollar strength throughout the day. Movement wasn’t very fast but the pair moved down nonetheless.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is pausing in close vicinity of the support located at 1.0825 but it is now clearly trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Fed decision didn’t create the huge movement that most market participants were expecting but we will most likely see further downside action once 1.0825 is broken. Keep in mind that the Stochastic is showing signs of oversold, thus moves north are a distinct possibility.

    Fundamental Outlook


    Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a light economic calendar today as no major economic data is scheduled for release.


    GBP/USD

    Although the British Retail Sales showed a change of 1.7%, much better than anticipated, the Pound showed just brief surges of power and the rest of the day belonged to the bears who managed to take the pair lower.



    Technical Outlook


    The move south broke through 1.4955 and is now testing 1.4895 but this is a key level for medium term price action and we expect to see some form of retracement to the upside. Note that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving below their respective oversold levels, increasing the chances of bullish pullbacks. If the pair starts to move to the upside, the first resistance and place where downside movement can resume is located at 1.4955, followed by 1.5000.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Similar to the Euro and the US Dollar, the Sterling has a light economic calendar ahead as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases.

    We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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