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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #21
    GDMFX is offline Senior Member
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    FOREX NEWS: BEARS STRUGGLE TO REGAIN CONTROL. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday the pair took another short dive but then soon returned above support. The day lacked major news announcements or substantial developments.



    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.0825 was briefly breached but the pair stopped at 1.0800 and started to move to the upside. Today we expect a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly 1.0900 but itís less likely to see a break of these forms of resistance and instead we expect price to resume movement south once the mentioned zones are hit. Movement is likely to be slow throughout the day because the economic calendar is light and no major events are scheduled.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The entire week is slow in terms of economic data releases and today is no exception. The German Producer Price Index is the only notable indicator, which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services. The scheduled time is 7:00 am GMT and the expected change is -0.2% but the impact is most times limited; nonetheless, higher values are usually beneficial for the single currency.


    GBP/USD


    Similar to the euro-dollar, this pair didnít show a lot of determination Friday and moved mostly sideways, above and below support.



    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.4895 is key for short term price action and we expect it to play a major role in todayís price direction. A break of this level would probably take price into 1.4830 (weekly chart support) and a bounce will make 1.4955 the immediate target. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index have reached oversold and are now curving upwards, a fact that increases the chance of bullish moves.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didnít schedule any notable indicators for today and this will probably contribute to a slow day in terms of price action.

  2. #22
    orni308 is offline Senior Member
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    AUDUSD has been trading narrower and it seem that the pair might go up and its good for making short trades.
    GDMFX likes this.

  3. #23
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    FOREX NEWS: THE WINTER HOLIDAYS START TO MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN WITH LOW VOLATILITY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light and no major economic data came out but the pair moved slowly to the upside, touching immediate resistance, without breaking it.



    Technical Outlook

    The current move is likely to reach 1.0925 but the extent of the climb should be limited, mostly because the Stochastic is entering overbought and price lacks strong upside momentum. Overall we still favour the bears and we expect to see US Dollar strength today, with 1.0825 being the first target. A move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average would confirm this bias and would increase the chances of reaching the mentioned target.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Final version of the United States Gross Domestic Product is released today at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change to 1.9% from the previous 2.1%. Although the Final version is the least important, it can still generate strong moves; as a rule of thumb, higher than expected values for this indicator trigger US Dollar strength.

    The U.S. Existing Home Sales are released at 3:00 pm GMT but the impact of this indicator is medium-to-low; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 5.32M are usually beneficial for the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    For the most part of yesterday the pair drifted sideways, without clear direction and showing very choppy movement.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is stalling at 1.4895 and neither side is in control but this stall at support shows that the strength of the bears is starting to fade. This fact combined with the positions of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index (which are exiting oversold and moving upwards) makes us believe that today we will see a move into 1.4955; however, a break of 1.4895 followed by a re-test from below would invalidate such a scenario.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 9:30 am GMT the British Public Sector Net Borrowing numbers are released and this is the only notable indicator of the day. The forecast is 11.9B (previous 7.5B) and higher numbers are detrimental for the Pound because they show a higher budget deficit; the indicator usually has a low impact.

  4. #24
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    FOREX NEWS: U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, NEW HOME SALES Ė LAST MAJOR INDICATORS AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS EVE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Despite a better than expected value shown by the US Gross Domestic Product, the pair climbed for the most part of yesterdayís trading session and resistance was easily broken.



    Technical Outlook


    Now that the level at 1.0925 is broken, we expect the pair to touch the minor resistance located at 1.1010. If this level is broken, a stronger resistance is in close vicinity, at 1.1040 but we donít expect the latter to be broken, mainly because the Stochastic is already overbought and the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching its 70 level. If 1.1010 is reached, we expect the pair to begin a downwards trajectory.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The U.S. Durable Goods Orders come out at 1:30 pm GMT and are expected to show a change of -0.6% compared to the previous 3.0%. Goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years are considered ďdurableĒ and more orders are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.

    Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. New Home Sales come out, with an anticipated number of 507K (annualized). The previous was 495K and numbers higher than forecast strengthen the US Dollar but sometimes the impact is mild.


    GBP/USD

    The pound-dollar pair moved opposite to the euro-dollar and travelled south yesterday but the move was not spectacular.



    Technical Outlook

    Once price was free of 1.4895, it travelled to the next support, located at 1.4830 but the chances of a real break of this level are slim. It is possible to see a brief move below the current support but afterwards, we expect the pair to return above it. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are oversold and this increases the chances of bullish moves.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The only notable event for the Pound is the release of the British Current Account scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the difference between imported vs. exported goods and services; under normal circumstances a higher value than the forecast -21.3B is beneficial for the Pound.

  5. #25
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    FOREX NEWS: CHRISTMAS EVE SLOWS DOWN THE MARKETS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Home sales in the United States were lower than analystsí expected and the Durable Goods Orders came out as forecast but the US Dollar still managed to take the pair down. However, no special developments took place.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair started to move lower without touching the minor resistance at 1.1010 but 1.0900 support couldnít be broken decisively yesterday. For today we expect irregular movement, with a slightly bearish bias but the markets will be heavily affected by Christmas Eve which is celebrated in many parts of the world. The key zone for todayís price action remains 1.0925 Ė 1.0900 and a move to either side could generate additional strength but to a limited extent.

    Fundamental Outlook

    German banks are closed today in celebration of Christmas Eve and on the US Dollar side the only notable indicator is the Unemployment Claims, released at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 270K. Usually, higher numbers are detrimental for the US Dollar but todayís release is likely to have a mild impact.


    GBP/USD


    As expected the pound-dollar pair broke support yesterday but soon after returned above it and touched resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The oversold condition of both oscillators contributed to the climb seen yesterday and now the pair is struggling to break 1.4895 which has turned into resistance. The oscillators are moving upwards with good momentum so we are likely to see a break of the current resistance and a move into 1.4955. However, keep in mind that irregular price action is a distinct possibility due to Christmas Eve.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The United Kingdom didnít schedule major news releases for today so the technical aspect will determine price direction but the markets will be affected by low liquidity.

  6. #26
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    FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE AND OVERBOUGHT LEVELS AHEAD Ė US DOLLAR PREPARES A COMEBACK


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The market was closed Friday due to Christmas Day so today we will pick off from Thursdayís closing price.



    Technical Outlook

    Price action will be slow today and direction hard to anticipate. The first barrier to the upside is located at 1.0980, followed by 1.1010 and first support is located at 1.0870 but we donít anticipate a break of either of these levels. If price does move past one of them, we expect it to return inside the range. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average will also act as support as long as price stays above it.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic calendar doesnít offer any type of economic releases today so price action will be entirely ruled by the technical aspect but more so by the low liquidity characteristic for this period.


    GBP/USD


    Thursday the pair climbed and touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so there was some Pound strength but to a limited extent.



    Technical Outlook


    The fact that we saw Pound strength Thursday doesnít mean that today the impulse will continue and instead itís very possible to see a move lower after a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic has reached its 80 level on a four hour chart and this suggests that we might see a move lower which will probably touch 1.4895.

    Fundamental Outlook


    British banks are closed today, celebrating Boxing Day and no economic indicators are scheduled for release, thus we anticipate irregular price movement.

  7. #27
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    FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY DECREASES AS THE END OF THE YEAR APPROACHES


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterdayís trading session was not very active, mainly because the market is still ďrecoveringĒ after the Christmas Holiday but also because no major economic indicators were released.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair slowly climbed above 1.0980 resistance but we cannot consider this a true break and on top of that, the Stochastic is already overbought, thus we anticipate a move lower next. The first target is the 50 period Exponential Moving Average where we expect a bounce higher. If the pair will break 1.0980, the next potential turning point is 1.1010, followed by the more important 1.1040. Keep in mind that the market will be affected by irregular volatility for the whole week.

    Fundamental Outlook


    At 3:00 pm GMT the CB Consumer Confidence survey comes out, expected to show a value of 93.9, a hefty increase from the previous 90.4. This survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 U.S. households regarding economic conditions and usually a higher than expected number strengthens the US Dollar to a limited extent.


    GBP/USD

    British banks were closed yesterday in observance of Boxing Day and the pair traveled slowly lower, breaching the first support.



    Technical Outlook

    The US Dollar strengthened yesterday and the pair breached 1.4985 support but this level is not broken decisively and a move above it is still possible. However, we favor the short side, anticipating a move into 1.4830, especially if the current support will turn into resistance. If rejection at the current level is shown, then the pair will most likely travel into the level located at 1.4955.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didnít schedule major news releases and in fact the entire week lacks important economic indicators so price action will be dictated by the technical aspect.

  8. #28
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    FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR STRENGTH CONTINUES AHEAD OF U.S. HOME SALES DATA


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The trading volume yesterday was thin and this made possible a fall which under normal circumstances would have been less sharp. Most of the US Dollar strength was due to a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is currently struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if it succeeds, the next stop will probably be the support at 1.0870. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are moving downwards with good momentum and far from oversold so we can assume that the move will continue lower. However, if the moving average proves to be a support thatís too hard to break, the pair will most likely touch 1.0980 today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The U.S. Pending Home Sales come out at 3:00 pm GMT, expected to show an increase to 0.6% from the previous 0.2%. Such a change (or a greater one) would bring US Dollar strength and probably a move into support.


    GBP/USD

    The British Pound was one of the worst performers yesterday and weakened severely against the greenback, with the only apparent reason being the Consumer Confidence survey mentioned earlier.



    Technical Outlook

    The support zone around 1.4830 was easily broken yesterday but today we expect a bullish pullback which may turn the mentioned support into resistance. The Relative Strength Index is touching its 70 level, approaching an oversold condition and increasing the chances of a push upwards. A continuation of the current move without any form of retracement is possible but not likely; however, if this is the case, the first potential support is located at 1.4700.

    Fundamental Outlook


    Just like the rest of the week, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic indicators so the focus will remain on the U.S. Pending Home Sales and on the technical aspect.

  9. #29
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    FOREX NEWS: FINAL TRADING DAY OF 2015


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Price moved mostly sideways yesterday and this was in part because the end of year approaches fast and brings thin liquidity. The U.S. Pending Home Sales showed a worse than expected value but the release didnít have a major impact.



    Technical Outlook

    Today we will probably see slow trading, possibly with alternating periods of low and high volatility. The levels to watch remain 1.0980 as resistance and 1.0870 as support and our bias is neutral until a break of either one occurs, followed by a re-test. The pair is likely to move sideways, without clear direction (mostly due to end of year low liquidity). If a break of one of the mentioned level occurs, price needs to show strong momentum, otherwise itís very possible that we are dealing with a false break.

    Fundamental Outlook

    German banks are closed today, celebrating New Yearís Eve and no major indicators are released. On the US Dollar side, the Unemployment Claims release is the only notable event, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 274K. Values above expectations are usually detrimental for the greenback but we donít expect a strong impact.


    GBP/USD

    Similar to the euro-dollar, this pair had a sideways trajectory but it did return to test the recently broken support which is now resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    The level at 1.4830 was tested from below but price didnít bounce lower after the touch so this level can be considered some sort of resistance now, but not a strong one. Minor support sits at 1.4790 but both oscillators are moving upwards, coming from their respective oversold levels, so we donít expect a break of the mentioned support. Price movement is likely to be choppy and irregular.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didnít schedule any news releases and because itís New Yearís Eve, volatility will be irregular. The markets will be closed during the first day of the year.

  10. #30
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    FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. MANUFACTURING DATA Ė INGREDIENTS FOR AN ACTIVE MONDAY


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday markets were closed in celebration of New Yearís Day so action picks up where we left off Thursday.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is currently trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart so we favor the short side for a break of 1.0870 support and a move lower, into the next support located at 1.0800. The Relative Strength Index is approaching its 30 level which suggests oversold conditions and this may hinder further movement south but a lot will depend on the German inflation data released today and direction will probably be decided by the value shown by this indicator.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The dayís main event is the release of the German Preliminary CPI scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and expected to show an increase from the previous 0.1% to 0.2%. The German economy is a pillar of the entire Eurozone so an increase in inflation is beneficial for the euro. The second important release of the day is the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managersí Index, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a small increase from 48.6 to 49.1. Because this is a leading indicator of economic health, a higher value will likely strengthen the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD

    Thursday was the last trading day of last year and the pair traveled fast towards the support at 1.4700 but this move is likely to stall or reverse.



    Technical Outlook


    The minor support located at 1.4790 was broken decisively but a descent below 1.4700 is less likely. Fast moves like the current one are usually reversed or a period of sideways movement follows and on top of that, the Relative Strength Index is now below its 30 level so the pair is considered oversold and this further increases the chances of a bullish pullback. The first potential resistance for this pullback is represented by the recently broken level at 1.4790.

    Fundamental Outlook


    The highlight of the day for the Pound is the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, with a forecast value of 52.8 (previous 52.7). Similar to the American indicator with the same name, a higher value will strengthen the currency because it shows that purchasing managers are confident in current and future economic conditions.

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