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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #431
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    FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE – A FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS SITUATION


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: US Dollar weakness continued and the pair broke decisively above 1.1775, reaching highs last seen in 2015. The US Manufacturing PMI came very close to expectations, thus the impact was low.



    Technical Outlook

    The recent push above 1.1775 opens the door for a move into 1.1875, which is a level that last acted as support in 2010, when it rejected a strong drop. However, the level was reached more recently, in 2015 but the pair just moved through it without any type of bounce. If this level is reached today, we expect to see rejection there, mostly because the pair is overextended and the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought by then. Retracements are very possible even before the pair reaches 1.1875.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the Government and the farming industry. The forecast is 187K and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is lower than the Government issued NFP which comes out Friday.


    GBP/USD

    British Manufacturing PMI fuelled the Pound and took the pair close to the resistance around 1.3250, giving us another session controlled by the bulls.



    Technical Outlook

    Although the pair is in an uptrend, the resistance at 1.3250 is likely to trigger a pullback lower. The relative Strength Index has been long overbought and is constantly showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs while the oscillator is making lower highs or double tops). If the pair retraces lower, it may find support around 1.3160 but a lot of today’s movement will depend on the economic data.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business and economic conditions in the Construction sector. This is a leading indicator of economic health, but its impact is high only if the actual number differs strongly from expectations. Today’s forecast is 54.2 and a higher number is usually beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be directly affected by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

  2. #432
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    FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE POUND: BOE INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE AND GOVERNOR CARNEY’S PRESS CONFERENCE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair climbed after the worse than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and spiked very close to 1.1875. However, most of the Dollar losses were erased soon after and now it seems like bullish pressure is fading.



    Technical Outlook

    Over the last couple of days, price action slowed down considerably and long wicks started to appear. This is a sign that the uptrend is wavering and that the pair is likely to move lower for the end of the week. The main levels to watch are 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1775 as support, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Given the latest price action, we expect to see a touch of support but keep in mind that the main trend is bullish.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Euro has a light day ahead and for the US Dollar the only notable release is the Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called the Services PMI), scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The expected number is 56.9 and usually higher numbers strengthen the USD but the impact is medium, not high.


    GBP/USD

    The pair had similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, first climbing very close to resistance and then erasing most of the losses. Overall yesterday’s session was choppy and without clear direction.



    Technical Outlook

    The Pound bulls have tried twice to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3250 but the result wasn’t positive. Now the candles have long wicks, showing rejection and the Relative Strength Index is bouncing at its 70 level, suggesting an overbought condition. Today’s direction will depend mostly on the fundamental side but strictly from a technical standpoint, we expect bearish pullbacks.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report, will announce the Interest Rate (no change expected) and will release the Monetary Policy Summary. Half an hour later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report. This cluster of events will most likely trigger increased volatility, so caution is recommended until things calm down and a clear direction emerges.

  3. #433
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    FOREX NEWS: BIG MOVEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK: NON-FARM PAYROLLS TAKE CENTER STAGE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was rather choppy and price retraced after a spike above 1.1875 resistance. The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing figure and this further weakened the US Dollar, bringing the pair close to resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    Currently the pair is testing 1.1875 resistance for the second time is a short while, with the Relative Strength Index showing an overbought condition. A deeper pullback is long overdue and the uptrend is overextended so we may see a move into 1.1775 and possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if 1.1885 barrier is not broken decisively. However, the main catalyst for today’s price action will be the U.S. jobs data and before the release we may experience choppy movement.

    Fundamental Outlook

    All eyes will be on the US Dollar today for the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls). This report is widely regarded as the most important jobs data for the United States and its release triggers strong movement almost all the time. More employed people means that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 181K (previous 222K).


    GBP/USD

    The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected but lowered inflation expectations and Governor Mark Carney was dovish during the press conference that followed. These were the main reasons why the pair posted a strongly bearish session yesterday.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair dropped into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the current candle shows a long wick in its lower part, suggesting rejection. If price remains below the 50 EMA and below 1.3160, we can expect a touch of 1.3100, but the technical aspect will be secondary to the U.S. employment data released today.

    Fundamental Outlook

    There are no major events on the Pound’s calendar for today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and to a lesser extent, by the technical aspect.

  4. #434
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    FOREX NEWS: BEARISH MOMENTUM ON THE RISE, US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY THE NON-FARM PAYROLLS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday’s highlight was without a doubt the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which posted a number of 209K new jobs, better than the anticipated 182K. This gave a breath of fresh air to the US Dollar and created a strongly bearish session.



    Technical Outlook

    After failing to break 1.1875 several times, the pair dropped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on the back of positive U.S. employment data. This is a much needed pullback as the Relative Strength Index was overbought on a Daily chart and is still overbought on a Weekly chart, so we expect the current downside momentum to extend throughout today’s session and the pair to remain below the 50 EMA.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Sentix Investor Confidence is today’s only notable release, albeit it’s a low impact indicator. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors, which tries to gauge the respondents’ opinion regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone economy. Usually, a higher than anticipated number suggests optimism and strengthens the Euro, but as mentioned before, the impact is limited. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected number is 27.8.


    GBP/USD

    Friday the pair continued the momentum started a day before and dropped about 130 pips on the back of US Dollar strength generated by the positive NFP reading.



    Technical Outlook

    The latest impulse is definitely bearish but price has reached support at 1.3030 and the Relative Strength Index has descended into its 30 level, which suggests that the pair is becoming oversold. A more important level is located at 1.3000, where we expect to see some sort of bounce higher; a break of this level will open the door for 1.2930 but we don’t expect that mark to be reached today. To the upside, the first barrier is located at 1.3100.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

  5. #435
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    FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AS THE US DOLLAR GAINS SOME TRACTION


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday price action slowed down but overall the pair had a slightly bullish bias, climbing above 1.1775 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without a major impact on direction.



    Technical Outlook

    Today we expect to see a continuation of the bearish momentum started Friday by the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report and we consider yesterday’s price action just a normal retracement after a strong move. If the pair descends below 1.1775, the first target will become 1.1713 – 1.1700 but it must be noted that an uptrend is still in place, so if 1.1775 rejects price, we may see a move closer to 1.1875.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day ahead is light in terms of economic releases, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. As the name suggests, this report shows the number of open jobs, excluding the farming sector but its impact is usually low-to-medium; however, a higher number shows increased economic activity and strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is 5.66 Million, very similar to the previous 5.67 Million.


    GBP/USD

    After a small bounce, the pair moved lower and approached the psychological level at 1.3000. The trading session was slower but it looks like the US Dollar is winning the short term battle.



    Technical Outlook

    For today we expect to see a touch of the key support located at 1.3000 but after that, the chances of a move up will increase because the Relative Strength Index is approaching its 30 level for the second time in a very short while. A break of 1.3000 would mean a great victory for the bears but even if it happens today, the extent of the move down should be limited and followed by a retracement that will clear the oversold condition of the RSI.

    Fundamental Outlook

    We don’t have any important economic indicators on the Pound’s calendar, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. data.

  6. #436
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    FOREX NEWS: PAIRS ROLLING DOWNHILL, US DOLLAR BACK IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Price action was very slow until the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings that posted a number of 6.16 Million, better than the anticipated 5.74 Million. This brought a wave of positive momentum to the US Dollar and the pair descended below support.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair has breached the support at 1.1775 on the back of positive U.S. economic data and it appears like the US Dollar is gaining momentum. If the bears can keep price below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1775, we expect to see a move into 1.1713 and possibly 1.1700. Our bias is bearish but we acknowledge the fact that an uptrend is still in place and this means that a bounce at the next support is very possible.

    Fundamental Outlook

    We have yet another slow economic day ahead, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized change in the price paid by businesses for labor, excluding the farming sector. It has inflationary implications and usually a higher than expected value can strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited, especially if the actual number comes close or matches analysts’ forecast, which for today is a change of 1.1%.


    GBP/USD

    Bearish momentum continued throughout yesterday’s trading session, mostly fuelled by better than expected U.S. economic data. The key psychological level at 1.3000 was broken decisively and this is likely to trigger additional downside movement.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair is under heavy selling pressure and the break of the support at 1.3000 suggests that we will soon see a touch of 1.2930. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is entering oversold for the third time in a short period and this is an early warning that a bounce higher will soon follow. A good place for this bounce is 1.2930 but if price turns up before that, we expect 1.3000 to provide resistance.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, thus price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Labor Costs mentioned earlier.

  7. #437
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    FOREX NEWS: POLITICAL TENSIONS ON THE RISE. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, fist descending below the 1.1700 mark and then climbing above the level. Political tensions between the United States and North Korea contributed to the choppy movement.



    Technical Outlook

    As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.1775, our short-to-medium term bias is bearish, anticipating another move below 1.1713 – 1.1700. Over the last months the US Dollar lost the battle with the Euro, so it’s clear that underlying bullish pressure still exists and now the latest candles show rejection, thus increasing the chances of a move up. We recommend caution because the US Dollar may be affected by surprise comments coming from American and/or North Korean politicians.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 12:30 pm GMT the United States Producer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods. It is considered a high-impact indicator, with inflationary implications because eventually a higher producer price translates into a higher consumer price. The expected change is 0.1% and usually a higher than anticipated value strengthens the greenback.


    GBP/USD

    The US Dollar gave back some of the gains yesterday, mostly due to disappointing economic data, but the pair found resistance at 1.3000 and bounced lower later in the afternoon.



    Technical Outlook

    The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index was an early warning that a retracement will follow and this happened yesterday. The move up found good resistance at 1.3000 where it bounced lower, so we can expect this level to play an important role for future price action. Today’s direction will be mostly decided by the fundamental side but our bias is bearish as long as price stays below 1.3000. Keep in mind that the US Dollar may be affected by the political environment and by tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound had a slow economic week so far and we can say that today is the busiest day of the week, with the British Manufacturing Production released at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator measures the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and usually has a high impact on the currency, with better than expected numbers strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.0%, while the previous was -0.2%.

  8. #438
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    FOREX NEWS: U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday’s session was characterized by bounces at support and resistance, without a clear bias. The U.S. Producer Price Index missed expectations and this weakened the US Dollar in the afternoon.



    Technical Outlook

    It looks like the zone between 1.1700 and 1.1713 acts as good support because lately we’ve seen two failed attempts to move bellow it. Also, the pair found solid resistance at 1.1775 and the Moving Average, so the bias is neutral until a clear break of either support or resistance. The U.S. inflation data will play an important role for today’s direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    A very important economic indicator is released today at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is one of the main gauges of inflation and measures changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

    Today’s forecast is a change of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.0% and usually a higher change strengthens the US Dollar. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the CPI (excludes food and energy from calculation), released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2% from the previous 0.1%.


    GBP/USD

    An initial drop was reversed yesterday by the worse than anticipated American PPI and afterwards, volatility dimmed and price remained close to 1.3000. Neither side was in clear control but now it seems like the pair has found good support at 1.2950.



    Technical Outlook

    During the last few days the pair has bounced twice at 1.2950 and the Relative Strength Index is hovering near the oversold level. These are signs that the bearish momentum is fading and that the buyers are likely to step in sooner rather than later. If 1.3000 can be clearly broken, we expect a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a lot will depend on the value posted by the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a lacklustre fundamental environment today, without major economic releases, thus the U.S. CPI and the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

  9. #439
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    FOREX NEWS: LACKLUSTER ECONOMIC SCENE CALLS FOR RANGING PRICE ACTION


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Friday’s price action was controlled by the bulls, mostly because the US Dollar was hit by worse than anticipated Consumer Price Index: actual 0.1%, forecast 0.2%. The CORE version of the indicator also disappointed (actual 0.1%, forecast 0.2%).



    Technical Outlook

    The US Dollar weakness seen Friday took the pair above 1.1775 resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, making the short term bias bullish. However, today we expect to see a ranging session, capped by 1.1875 and by the 50 EMA, mostly because the economic scene is quiet and Mondays are usually slow days. The last candles also show long wicks in the upper side, which is a sign of rejection and possibly an indication that price will return to retest 1.1775.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Both the Euro and the US Dollar have an uneventful day today, without important economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect.


    GBP/USD

    After several failed attempts to break the support at 1.2950, Friday the pair started to move north and reached the resistance at 1.3030, mostly fuelled by worse than expected U.S. inflation data.



    Technical Outlook

    The support at 1.2950 rejected price several times so it will play an important role in future price action. Another important level is 1.3030, which acted as resistance Friday and today we will probably see another encounter with it. The way price behaves here will decide the next short term direction: a break of 1.3030 and the 50 period EMA will make 1.3100 the first target, while a bounce will take the pair back towards 1.2950. However, we don’t expect these targets to be reached today, mainly due to the lack of economic indicators.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, similar to the rest of Europe and the United States.

  10. #440
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    FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES, BRITISH INFLATION: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR WILD SWINGS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the control belonged to the bears mostly, and the pair returned to re-test 1.1775. Overall movement was slow, mostly due to a lacklustre economic scene.



    Technical Outlook

    Price action has created a minor resistance around 1.1840, so if the pair bounces at the current support, that level will become the first target for today. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, signalling that the pair may be entering a ranging period but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index show bearish momentum and this suggests that a break of 1.1775 and the 50 EMA will bring the pair down towards 1.1713.

    Fundamental Outlook

    French and Italian banks will be closed today in observance of Assumption Day, so we can expect a choppy European session. On the US Dollar side we have a very important release: the Retail Sales, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets and usually has a high impact on the currency because retail sales represent the majority of consumer spending. The anticipated change is 0.4%, while the previous was -0.2%.


    GBP/USD

    The Dollar showed some strength against the Pound and took the pair towards support after a bounce at 1.3030 resistance. Overall yesterday’s session was bearish but the pair is still inside a range.



    Technical Outlook

    Lately the pair moves above and below the psychological level at 1.3000 and is trapped inside the horizontal channel created by 1.3030 and 1.2950, so the short term bias doesn’t clearly belong to either side. A break of support will send the pair into 1.2930, followed by 1.2900 but a lot will depend on the US and UK data released throughout the day.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 8:30 am GMT, British inflation data comes out in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The indicator shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually has a high impact because inflation levels are closely watched by the central bank when deciding the next rate hike. Today’s forecast is 2.7% while the previous was 2.6%.

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