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Thread: Technical News | Gdmfx Brokerage | Daily

  1. #481
    GDMFX is offline Senior Member
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    FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE US DOLLAR FOR THE FOMC MEETING MINUTES


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: Yesterday the pair climbed above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, extending the bullish move and printing a higher high. Overall price is still in a range but with a bullish bias.



    Technical Outlook

    The move above the 50 EMA will probably bring in additional buyers, taking the pair into the resistance zone around 1.1840. If the pair does reach that mark, we expect to see a move south but as long as price stays above the 50 EMA, our short term bias is bullish. The balance of power will tilt towards the bears if price descends below 1.1775 and below the Moving Average.

    Fundamental Outlook

    At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate Meeting and some hints about a future rate hike are expected. If the document will reveal that the Fed is preparing to hike one more time this year, the US Dollar will probably respond by strengthening.


    GBP/USD

    Yesterday price climbed above 1.3160, partly due to better than expected British Manufacturing numbers. The pair is approaching the 50 EMA but the move lacks strong momentum.



    Technical Outlook

    The first destination for the pair seems to be the 50 EMA, followed soon after by the resistance at 1.3250. If the 50 EMA holds, we expect to see a drop through 1.3160 and closer to 1.3100 but otherwise, 1.3250 will become the first target, which if surpassed, will open the door for further upside movement. The FOMC Meeting Minutes released today will be a deciding factor for price direction.

    Fundamental Outlook

    There are no economic releases scheduled for the Pound today so all eyes will be on the US Dollar for the FOMC Minutes release.

  2. #482
    GDMFX is offline Senior Member
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    FOREX NEWS: FED OFFICIALS FEAR LOW INFLATION. ANOTHER HIKE THIS YEAR STILL POSSIBLE


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: The pair continued on a bullish path before the FOMC Meeting Minutes release, which revealed that some Fed officials fear that low inflation is not “only transitory”. The greenback weakened at the time of the release but volatility remained relatively normal.



    Technical Outlook

    It looks like the Dollar’s next move will be decided by inflation data but for the time being, the American currency lacks strength and the pair is climbing. However, price is currently at a resistance zone created by 1.1840 and 1.1875, with the Relative Strength Index in overbought territory. This calls for a bounce lower, which will probably occur once 1.1875 is hit. As long as the mentioned level remains intact, our bias is bearish, expecting a bounce lower.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The U.S. Producer Price Index will be today’s most notable release for the US Dollar, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and it has inflationary implications because a higher producer price usually leads to a higher consumer price. Today’s expected change is 0.4% (previous 0.2%) and numbers above forecast strengthen the greenback.

    At 2:30 pm GMT, ECB President Draghi will speak about monetary policy in Washington DC, at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The impact cannot be anticipated but caution should always be used when heads of central banks speak publicly.


    GBP/USD

    The pair remained in a range for most of yesterday’s trading session and the FOMC Minutes created a small climb due to US Dollar weakness. Overall no special developments took place and price action was slow.



    Technical Outlook

    Currently the pair is drifting without clear direction, meaning that we can see either a move up or down. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is also flat, adding to the uncertainty, so until we see a clear break of 1.3250 or 1.3160, our bias is neutral. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overextended condition but the Stochastic is overbought and crossing down; this is not a strong bearish signal but combined with the inability to move above the 50 EMA, it may suggest that lower prices will follow.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has another light day ahead, so the technical aspect and the U.S. data will be the main price drivers.

  3. #483
    GDMFX is offline Senior Member
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    FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION EYED FOR NEXT MOVE. POSSIBLE RATE HIKE IMPLICATIONS


    EUR/USD


    Forex News: After reaching the resistance at 1.1875, the pair bounced lower, due to the technical reasons outlined yesterday but also due to upbeat US Dollar sentiment triggered by positive economic data.



    Technical Outlook

    The overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index combined with the resistance level at 1.1875 generated a bounce lower, which is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, if price returns above 1.1840, we will most likely see another test of 1.1875 but we don’t expect major advances north until a deeper retracement occurs.

    Fundamental Outlook

    Today we have two very important releases scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (expected change 0.6%) and the U.S. Retail Sales (expected change 1.7%). The former is the main gauge of inflation and is especially important now because some Fed officials see inflation as too low and this could potentially affect their decision to hike later this year.

    Sales made at retail levels represent the major part of consumer spending and in turn, a big part of overall economic activity, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the currency.


    GBP/USD

    The Pound weakened during yesterday’s session on concerns that Brexit negotiations are not going as smooth as they should and this combined with positive U.S. data triggered a drop below support.



    Technical Outlook

    The pair broke 1.3160 and now it looks like it’s testing the level from below. If price remains below 1.3160 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we expect to see a move into 1.3100. The oscillators are starting to gain downside momentum and the Pound is affected by Brexit negotiations, so the bias is negative but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released throughout the day.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The economic calendar for the Pound is light today, without any major releases, so the technical aspect and the U.S. data will be the main price drivers.

  4. #484
    GDMFX is offline Senior Member
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    FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DISAPPOINTS, US DOLLAR STILL RESILIENT


    EUR/USD


    Fores News: The pair spiked higher Friday when the U.S. Consumer Price Index showed a value below expectations. However, most of the US Dollar losses were soon erased and the pair finished the week below resistance.



    Technical Outlook

    As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is still bullish but it must be noted that recently the resistance at 1.1875 was touched twice and each time price dropped. This shows that bearish pressure is increasing and the bulls lack the necessary strength to take price higher, at least for the time being. If resistance is not broken early in the session, we expect a drop through the 50 EMA and into 1.1775.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The day’s only notable release is the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is a survey of about 200 manufacturers from the New York state. The respondents are asked to rate the level of business conditions and the survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected reading is 20.3 but the survey has a limited impact.


    GBP/USD

    The pair showed choppy price action Friday and ended the session close to where it started it. The US Dollar weakened at the time of the CPI release but erased most of the losses soon after.



    Technical Outlook

    Friday the bulls attempted to take price higher but failed and this resulted in a candle with a long upper wick, which is a sign of rejection, so we expect a move lower for today. However, the pair will most likely remain between the resistance at 1.3350 and the support at 1.3250 for the entire trading session or at least for a big part of it.

    Fundamental Outlook

    The Pound has a light economic calendar today, so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction. The lack of economic data releases may also trigger a slow day.

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