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  1. #151
    xtreamforex.com is offline Senior Member
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    Australian Dollar Wilts After Mixed Data Dump, RBA In Focus

    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS:
    AUD/USD slid as a new week got under way
    Local data were mixed but the more timely numbers were the weaker
    China’s manufacturing sector held up, just.
    The Australian Dollar tracked lower on Monday following a raft of domestic and Chinese economic data- China’s economy being of crucial importance to Australia thanks to the two countries’ vat investment and export links.
    Australia’s July retail sales were flat on the month, according to official figures, when the market had been looking for 0.3% gain. To make matters worse job-advertisement levels fell by 0.6% in August, a survey by the Australia and New Zealand banking group found. This was well short of the 1.5% gain previously seen and perhaps puts some doubt over job-creation ahead. The local labor market has been a pretty unambiguous economic bright spot in recent years- Aussie bulls won’t welcome any sign that it is dimming.
    Corporate inventories rose nicely though, so the data weren’t all bleak. However, their 0.6% gain was for the second quarter and so the number may be a little historic for investors’ taste. Corporate profits rose by 2%, again beating expectations but, with the benchmark ASX 200 index close to ten-year highs, a lot of good news must already be in the price.
    Bringing up the rear was the august Chinese Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector from media name Caixin. It came in at 50.6. That kept it in ‘expansion’ territory- any reading above 50 does that- but it was the lowest print for 14 month and a whisker below the 50.7 expected.
    All up these numbers will do nothing to alleviate widespread investor suspicions that the best of 2018’s regional growth has already been seen, and that they will have to make do with a much scrappier prospect as the year bows out. AUD/USD duly slipped in the aftermath, if not by much.
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  2. #152
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    GBP Plunges, Turkish Central Bank Signals Rate Hike – EU Market Update

    MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP SLIDES, TURKISH CENTRAL BANK SIGNALS RATE HIKE
    GBP: The Pound is the underperformer among the G10 currencies today and is on course for its largest daily drop in a month. This has largely been due to reports that Barnier strongly opposes aspects to PM May’s Chequers plan, consequently increasing the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Alongside this, UK manufacturing data fell to a 25-month low as new orders contracted for the first time since April 2016. GBPUSD back below 1.29 and testing the 1.2840-50 support zone.
    TRY: Turkish inflation rose to its highest level since 2003 at 17.9%. In response to this, the Turkish Central Bank signalled that it would adjust monetary policy to ensure price stability, which has subsequently bolstered expectations that the Turkish Central Bank will provide a much-needed rate hike at the next meeting on September 13th in order to rein in surging inflation.
    Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-news/

  3. #153
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    AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Last Major Support Cluster Before Steep Break at .7164 to .7145

    The key are at watch this week is a potential support cluster formed by a pair of downtrending Gann angles at .7164 and .7157 as well as the December 23, 2016 main bottom at .7159 and the May 24, 2016 main bottom at .7145. Basically, the potential support zone is .7164 to .7145.
    Australian Dollar traders face a slew of economic reports this week as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision. Investors will also get the opportunity to react to U.S. economic data and the threat of an escalation of the rade dispute between the United States and China.
    Fundamentally, the divergence between the monetary policies of the hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the dovish Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be the main driver of the bearish price action.
    Weekly Technical Analysis
    The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through .7484 will change the main trend to up.

    The key support is a pair of main bottoms at .7159 and .7145. Crossing to the weak side of these bottoms could trigger the start of a prolonged downtrend with the February 9, 2016 main bottom at .6973 the primary downside target.
    The minor trend is also down. A trade through .7382 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift weekly momentum to the upside.
    Weekly Technical Forecast
    The key are at watch this week is a potential support cluster formed by a pair of downtrending Gann angles at .7164 and .7157 as well as the December 23, 2016 main bottom at .7159 and the May 24, 2016 main bottom at .7145. Basically, the potential support zone is .7164 to .7145.
    Monday’s low at .7166 was slightly above the support cluster, indicating that aggressive counter-trend traders are willing to come in to defend this area.
    Based on the price action on Monday, we could see a counter-trend rally this week if buyers can sustain a move over .7164. Closing above last week’s close at .7193 will indicate the short-covering is getting stronger. This could lead to a potentially bullish weekly closing price reversal bottom.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-forecast/


  4. #154
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    Gold Price Prediction – Gold Rallies as the Dollar Eases

    Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday but were unable to recapture resistance near the 10-day moving average. The dollar lost ground on Wednesday as yields edged lower despite Tuesday’s much stronger than expected US ISM manufacturing report. Traders now await Thursday’s ADP private payroll report, and Friday’s BLS government payroll report which is expected to show a 190K increase in total jobs created in the United States. A wider than expected trade deficit weighted on the greenback, and put pressure on riskier assets, which help buoy gold prices.
    Technical Analysis

    Gold prices edged higher but were unable to break through resistance at 1,199. Support on gold prices is seen near the August lows at 1,160. Positive momentum is decelerating as the MACD(moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation. The fast stochastic is moving lower, and reflects accelerating negative momentum. The index generate a crossover sell signal in oversold territory last week which also points to lower prices.
    Trade Deficit Increases to Widest in 5-months
    The Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit increased by 9.5% to $50.1 billion in July, widening for a second straight month. Data for June was revised lower to show the trade deficit rising to $45.7 billion. The trade deficit with China surged to 10% to a record of 38.8 billion. The decline in soybean exports was one of the catalysts for the drop. Expectations were for the deficit to actual increase more to 50.3 billion in July. The widening of the deficit has been driven by the trade spats that the United States is having with Canada, Mexico, the EU and China. One positive for gold is that the dollar turned around after strengthening on Tuesday. Since gold is priced in dollars, a strong US currency makes gold more expensive in other currencies.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-forecast/

  5. #155
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    Bitcoin Unravels as Goldman Says No and Bears Cry Foul

    The Bitcoin slide continues in the early hours, with side lined investors looking to see if the early reversal is a spillover or a sign of more pain ahead.
    Bitcoin slid by 8.81% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 1.23% gain with venom, to end the day at $6,710.7.
    A particularly range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin hover at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376, with Bitcoin managing to move back through to $7,400 levels with a morning high $7,404 before the cryptomarket bombshell hit the news wires.
    News of Goldman Sachs hitting pause on its plans to roll out a cryptocurrency trading desk hit the wires, leading to a late morning sell-off across the cryptomarket, with Bitcoin sliding through the day’s major support levels to a morning low $6,921.5 before steadying through the afternoon, support at the day’s third major support level at $7,000 kicking in to fend off more severe losses.
    A second sell-off late in the day saw Bitcoin slide to an intraday low $6,700, the second sell-off removing the chances of a swift return to $7,000 levels, with Bitcoin pulling back through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
    While the news of Goldman Sachs hitting pause raised concerns over the much talked about inflows of institutional money needed to steady a particularly volatile cryptomarket, news of cryptocurrency manipulation weighed further, with reports hitting the news wires of a sizeable short position being placed ahead of the late morning sell-off, pointing to market manipulation.
    For the market, Goldman’s announcement may be a bigger issue, but with the SEC currently reviewing the rejection of 9 Bitcoin ETF applications, any noise of market manipulation and that could be the end of any near-term hopes of an approval for a Bitcoin ETF and may well result in regulators coming up with more debilitating rules that would really spell trouble for the Bitcoin bulls and the broader cryptomarket.
    Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/cryptocurrency-news/

  6. #156
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    Euro Forecast: ECB Meeting Eyed, Even if Policy is on Preset Course


    Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral
    – The Euro finished in the middle of the pack last week, with EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, and EUR/CHF leading to the downside – a sign that risk appetite is deteriorating.
    – Thursday’s ECB meeting should bring little new information as policy was preset for the next year back at the June meeting; a mention of European banks’ exposure to Turkish borrowers would excite markets.
    For the second week in a row, the Euro finished in the middle of the pack, losing ground against four of the major currencies while gaining ground against the remaining three. Among the EUR-crosses that lost ground, there is a noticeable pattern: all of the safe havens performed well last week. EUR/JPY led to the downside with a loss of -0.46%, EUR/USD followed lower by -0.42%, and EUR/CHF dropped by -0.39%. Similarly, the Euro gained ground against all of the commodity currencies.

    If there is indeed a discernible, negative shift in risk appetite transpiring among developed market currencies, then it’s time to declare that contagion from emerging markets and persistent trade war tensions may have finally started to take their toll.
    Coincidentally, given that the emerging market turmoil accelerated upon the release of a report by the Financial Times in early-August that said that the ECB’s supervisory arm was reviewing European banks’ exposure to Turkish borrowers, we’re keenly interested in seeing what ECB President Mario Draghi has to say this Thursday at the ECB’s September policy meeting.
    After all, Turkish borrowers owe European banks $194 billion, according to the Bank of International Settlements. A protracted depreciation by the Turkish Lira could very well set off a wave of defaults on these obligations, forcing European banks to write down bad loans. The erosion of excess capital held by European banks could give the ECB pause to its current plans to wind down its QE program by December 2018 and raise rates by “summer 2019.”
    Barring a significant discussion over Turkey and the potential contagion, and even though it is a month that will bring forward a new round of Staff Economic Projections, the nature of monetary policy being on a preset course otherwise means that the resulting impact on price action for the Euro should be minimal.
    Beyond the ECB meeting, the calendar bears little of interest that will move the needle for the Euro in the coming days. Economic data in general hasn’t been inspiring as evidenced by the stability in readings around neutral in the Eurozone Citi Economic Surprise Index over the past week (from +1.4 to -3.9).
    Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-news/

  7. #157
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    Australian Dollar Gains On NAB Business Confidence, Jobs Data Next

    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE SURVEY TALKING POINTS:
    NAB’s business confidence survey was quite gloomy for August
    The fall of former PM Malcolm Turnbull probably didn’t help, but confidence was notably weak
    Still, the current conditions assessment was much better.The Australian Dollar managed to rise Tuesday, paring earlier losses as investors apparently chose to focus on the positives from an objectively mixed business survey.
    Overall business confidence declined in August, according to the National Australia Bank’s roundup. Its index fell to 4, from a prior reading of 7. This was also the lowest reading since late 2016. However, firms’ assessment of business conditions rose, hitting 15 from a previous, upwardly revised 13.
    A knock to confidence is hardly surprising given that a Prime Minister left office in August. Malcolm Turnbull was ousted over a lack of confidence in his leadership, adding to the considerable churn in Australia’s top political post. There have now been seven Prime Ministers in just over eleven years.
    Still, NAB said that business was still performing strongly and that strong employment growth was likely in the months ahead. This optimism perhaps explains AUD/USD’s response.
    Read more:http://xtreamacademy.com/category/forex-news/

  8. #158
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    Australian Dollar Jumps On Job Report Smash, Gains Likely Fragile

    AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, EMPLOYMENT DATA TALKING POINTS:
    Australia’s job creation shattered forecasts for August
    Employment rose by 44,000, much of it full time
    The Australian Dollar gained but those gains may not last
    The Australian Dollar rose sharply Thursday in the wake of official employment data whose headlines smashed expectations.
    They showed that 44,000 Australians found jobs in August. That was much more than the already pretty-strong 18,000 which markets were looking for. Even better for Australian Dollar bulls, the lion’s share of these (33,700) were in full time positions. Meanwhile 10,200 part-time vacancies were also filled.
    This news was cheered understandably by AUD bulls, even though the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3% and the overall participation rate only edged up, to 65.6% from 65.5% in July.
    The Australian economy is not doing at all badly by many counts, of which these data are just the latest. Official growth numbers released last week were very strong too.
    However, inflation remains stickily low and consumer debt extremely high. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also worried about the prospect of a US/China trade war given Australia’s close economic and political ties to both main actors. The prospect glowers over all commodity currencies, linked as they are to the global growth cycle.
    In short the remorseless hammering AUD/USD has seen for most of this year is most unlikely to reverse anytime soon despite plentiful domestic economic cheer.
    Still, on its daily chart AUD/USD has staged a modest bounce from this week’s three-year lows. But the backdrop remains overwhelmingly gloomy with interest-rate differentials squarely in the greenback’s favor and likely to stay that way. Australian rates remain at the record lows they’ve been at since August, 2016 and futures markets don’t fully price even a single, quarter percentage point rise for this year and all of next.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/...ry/forex-news/

  9. #159
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    Gold Trades Sideways Following Soft Inflation Figures

    Gold prices attempted to rally on Thursday but were unable to breach through resistance near the 50-day moving average at 1,212. A softer than expected Consumer Price index in the US weighed on treasury yields and put downward pressure on the dollar which initially buoyed gold prices.
    Technical Analysis
    Gold prices where capped on Thursday attempting to rally but failing at resistance. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 20-day moving average at 1,198. Momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic recently generated a crossover buy signal. The index is accelerating upward which points to accelerating positive momentum. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher gold prices.
    On the heels of Wednesday’s softer than expected Producer Price Index, the Labor Department followed that report with a softer than expected CPI index report. According to the BLS, U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in August driven by decline in gasoline and apparel.
    CPI was Weaker than Expected in August

    The Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in August after a similar gain in July. On a year over year basis the August, the CPI increased 2.7%, slowing from July’s 2.9% rise. The core CPI which excludes a volatile food and energy component, increased by 0.1%. Core CPI had increased by 0.2% for three straight months. The year over year August, core CPI increased 2.2% after rising 2.4% in July. Expectations were that CPI would increase by 0.3% on the headline and 0.2% on the core in August. The softer numbers show that the increase in wages that has been evident in the August employment number and the July JOLTS report have not spilled over into higher producer or consumer prices. This could allow the Fed to remain on hold in December.
    Read more:https://www.xtreamforex.com/academy/category/forex-forecast/

  10. #160
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    US Trade Wars Put Global Economic Growth, Market Stability at Risk

    TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, TRADE WARS, GLOBAL GROWTH

    American economic nationalism poses a threat to global markets
    Trade wars can spread uncertainty, dampening economic activity
    Protectionism is antagonism toward growth and stability at large
    WHAT IS ECONOMIC NATIONALISM?

    Economic nationalism is an ideology that is often characterized by a general skepticism toward globalization and people outside of the nation. Parties or movements adhering to this kind of philosophy often instate protectionist trade policies and stricter controls on cross-border immigration.
    The rhetoric and policies that are espoused by parties representing economic nationalists are often rooted in growing concerns about the nation’s identity and economic wellbeing. Perceived setbacks on these fronts are frequently attributed to immigrants.
    The policies that follow this sentiment-based political agenda are focused on the nation and often go against the social, political, and economic trajectory of globalization. The resulting friction stokes uncertainty that troubles investors and may trigger market-wide volatility and an aversion to risk-taking.
    ECONOMIC NATIONALISM IN THE UNITED STATES

    Leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, Donald Trump campaigned on an economically nationalist platform with populist underpinnings. When he was inaugurated, his rhetoric turned into policy. His measures are supported by the idea that the decline of the American worker is caused by poorly negotiated trade deals and increased migration from Mexico.
    The future president’s platform acted as a magnet for those frustrated voters that considered themselves “losers” at the hands of globalization. His agenda appealed to disillusioned workers who were looking for an explanation for their circumstances.
    Trump’s calls to build a wall along the US-Mexico border as a means of limiting illegal immigration and to impose tariffs were central to his platform. These policies also happen to represent key tenets of economic nationalism.
    The first round of Trump’s protectionist policies was the implementation of aluminum and steel tariffs that triggered fears of a potential global trade war. Markets responded with higher volatility as risk aversion spread amid fears that a follow-on disruption of cross-border supply chains will slow global growth.
    In response, the EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods such tobacco and whiskey. The US then threatened to enforce import duties against key European exports such as automobiles. With worries about a looming trade war increasingfollowing this exchange, the Euro fell. Assets that perform well in a risk-on environment – such as stocks and higher-yielding currencies – also took a hit.

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