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  1. #1
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    Default Daily FX Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD by SGT Markets

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Technical-Analysis-August-4-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change again worse than expected. ISM Non-Manufacturing worse than expected too.
    Eyes on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, whether there will be a tough downside correction on EUR/USD or another bullish breakout is linked to next fundamental outcome.

    Spanish Unemployment Change worse than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat too.

    Deepening U.S. political uncertainty keeps the greenback on the defensive because the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Still, we think USD is oversold.

    On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

    As we wrote previously, 1.1856 is a strong Resistance and it is working. We expect first a re-test back to 0.1756, then a correction down to 1.1655. In the case of bad news from the U.S., we can see EUR/USD conquering 1.19 area in an overshooting bullish enthusiasm.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.1756
    2nd Resistance: 1.1856
    1st Support: 1.1655
    2nd Support: 1.1590



    GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Technical-Analysis-August-4-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.

    Sterling is falling after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at record lows and cut its economic growth forecast for this year and next. UK Services PMI index increased more than expected but last UK Construction PMI dropped at the lowest since October 2016.

    No doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

    British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. "But we can't have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself," he added.
    The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

    As we wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance and we think unlikely to see price overcome that obstacle unless there will be bad data from the U.S. job market. 1.3099 Resistance should be reconfirmed as first downside target. In the case of bad news from the U.S., eyes on 1.33 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.3203
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2978
    2nd Support: 1.2830




    AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Technical-Analysis-August-4-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today RBA Monetary Statement and Australia Retail Sales.

    Australia Trade Balance again on the downbeat. U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change worse than expected.

    Australia reported building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for "some time", highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
    U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

    On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

    As we wrote previously, 0.8034 is very strong Resistance and it worked pushing price back to 0.7916 again. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 0.7916
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

  2. #2
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    Default

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-7-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker.jpg

    U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected.
    Spanish Unemployment Change worse than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat too.

    Deepening U.S. political uncertainty keeps the greenback on the defensive because the Trump administration remains under the cloud of a probe into alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Still, we think USD is oversold.

    On the other hand, ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

    As we wrote previously, 1.1856 is a strong Resistance and it is working. We expected first a re-test back to 0.1756, and it happened. Now eyes on a probable correction down to 1.1655.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.1756
    2nd Resistance: 1.1856
    1st Support: 1.1655
    2nd Support: 1.1590




    GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-7-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker.jpg

    U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected.

    Sterling is falling after the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at record lows and cut its economic growth forecast for this year and next. UK Services PMI index increased more than expected but last UK Construction PMI dropped at the lowest since October 2016.

    No doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

    British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. "But we can't have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself," he added.
    The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

    As we wrote, 1.3203 is an ultimate Resistance capable to turn price violently down and our first target in area 1.3099 has been abundantly broken down. The direction is now towards our first Support in area 1.2978.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Bearish
    1st Resistance: 1.3203
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2978
    2nd Support: 1.2830




    AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-7-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker.jpg

    U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected. Eyes on today Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Australia Home Loans.

    Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Trade Balance again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for "some time", highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
    U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

    On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

    As we wrote previously, 0.8034 is very strong Resistance and it worked pushing price back to 0.7916 again. We confirm that 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 0.7916
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

  3. #3
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    Default

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-8-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected.
    Spanish Unemployment Change worse than expected. German Manufacturing PMI and German Unemployment Change on the downbeat too.

    ECB remarks appeared to signal a shift towards tapering monetary stimulus, but President Draghi reiterated that any changes to the stimulus program will be “gradual” and “cautious.”

    On the other hand, Federal Reserve’s speeches and the deepening U.S. political uncertainty keep the greenback on the defensive.

    Still, we think USD is oversold.

    As we wrote previously, 1.1856 is a strong Resistance and it is working. We expected first a re-test back to 0.1756, and it happened. Now eyes on a probable correction down to 1.1655.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.1756
    2nd Resistance: 1.1856
    1st Support: 1.1655
    2nd Support: 1.1590




    GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-8-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    After last bad CPI and Construction PMI data, no doubt that U.K. growth is slowing with the details of the GDP report showing weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Growth is expected to ease further in the coming months as BREXIT gets underway.

    British Trade Minister said that it is perfectly reasonable that people want to have some transitional period until the final agreement with UE will be reached. "But we can't have a perpetual transitional period undermining the concept of Brexit itself," he added.
    The agreement between Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party is still occupying only the background of the global Sentiment on Pound.

    As we wrote, our first target in area 1.3099 has been abundantly broken down. The direction is now towards our first Support in area 1.2978.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Bearish
    1st Resistance: 1.3203
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2978
    2nd Support: 1.2830



    AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-8-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Australia Home Loans ahead.
    U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls better than expected.

    Australia Retail Sales better than expected. Australia Trade Balance again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve statement noted that interest rates are likely to remain low for "some time", highlighting that increases in its benchmark rate will depend on incoming economic data.
    U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence better than expected, both Manufacturing and Services PMI in the U.S.A. were better than expected as well. Last U.S. GDP release pared expectations.

    On the other hand, the dollar fell amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

    We first expect a breakout of 0.7916, important Support. Then 0.783 area will have to be retested, and this represents our first target.

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 0.7916
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

  4. #4
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    Default

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-17-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today Eurozone CPI data.

    Fed’s policymakers agreed a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable. They disagree on whether inflation expectations were well-anchored. Most of them expected inflation to pick up in next few years, but many saw rising chances of inflation remaining below target (2%).

    Another hit to U.S. administration following an exodus from and eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump's manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

    German GDP (Preliminary release) worse than expected.
    U.S. Retail Sales increased more than expected after 4 months of figures disappointing the forecasts.

    U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

    Geopolitical tensions deepened, and tensions between Pyongyang and Washington continue to escalate.

    The ECB's big dilemma is that while the euro zone economy has grown for 17th straight quarters and employment is rising faster than expected, wage growth remains anemic, keeping a lid on consumer prices. Economists are now trying to figure out whether wages are showing an unexpectedly delayed response or whether wage setting dynamics may have fundamentally changed in the post-crisis, globalized economy.

    As we wrote previously, we expected first a re-test back to 1.1756, and it happened both the 7th and the 15th of August. Now eyes on the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support).

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.1756
    2nd Resistance: 1.1856
    1st Support: 1.1655
    2nd Support: 1.1590




    GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-17-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today UK Retail Sales.
    UK Job Market better than expected: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

    On the other hand, the greenback fell following the announcement from Trump via Twitter about the eventual disbanding of U.S. President Donald Trump's manufacturing council and strategic policy forum.

    Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

    As we expected, the consolidation below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. We still are bearish until 1.27 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Bearish
    1st Resistance: 1.2978
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2830
    2nd Support: 1.2705




    AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-17-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker.jpg

    Australia Employment Change better than Expected but Full Employment Change negative.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

    A nearly twelve-month low for Chinese refinery activity come against concerns that a glut of refined fuel products could lessen demand for oil, reducing the prospect of oil inventories falling below the five-year average, adding pressure on oil prices. AUD weakened as well.

    China Industrial Production disappointed expectations.
    U.S. Core Inflation figures ticked down again (for the fourth time in a row). Also, U.S. PPI (another Inflation data) worse than expected.

    The dollar suffered as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea intensified. On the other hand, Australia home loans data rose 0.5% for June, compared with a 1.5% gain expected. China consumer and producer prices ticked down.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at a record low 1.75% as expected and said that it expects a neutral view to persist with inflation projections well anchored around 2%. Australia Retail Sales were better than expected. Australia Trade Balance was again on the downbeat but building approvals for June jumped 10.9%, far outpacing a 1.5% gain seen month-on-month.

    On the other hand, the dollar fell also amid expanding investigations into allegations that Russia meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (investors are afraid that would sidetrack the implementation of Trump’s fiscal and economic policies) and after repeated failure of Trumps’s healthcare bill, not able to garner enough votes for replacing Obamacare.

    As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. We are still bearish until 0.774 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Bearish
    1st Resistance: 0.7916
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

  5. #5
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    Default

    Daily Forex Analysis: EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-28-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

    After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

    From the U.S., Manufacturing PMI and House Markets were worse than expected. Also, Chicago manufacturing data undershot economists’ forecasts.

    Fitch Ratings said that a failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner in September would prompt it to review the United States' sovereign rating "with potentially negative implications."

    German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.

    End-of-summer hedging (and in the absence of relevant macro economical or political data) messed up a little bit the whole picture but it is giving a lot of reasons to the next correction wave. Fake breakout of 1.1856 will be re-absorbed soon and we still are overbought: so first we expect the re-test back to 1.1756 and then the continuation of this retracement down to 1.1655 (First important Support, tested first time on the 17th).

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.1856 (fake breakout)
    2nd Resistance: 1.1920
    1st Support: 1.1655
    2nd Support: 1.1590




    Daily Forex Analysis: GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-28-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

    UK GDP (Preliminary release) as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) on the downbeat. On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected but ahead of important Employment data from U.S. we think that sentiment for the USD will regain momentum as USD is heavily oversold and Nonfarm Payrolls can surprise in better.

    Uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Federal Reserve will deliver a third rate hike this year have fed into recent dollar weakness. Furthermore, Federal Reserve policymakers were split on the outlook for future rate hikes, as Fed members struggled to balance concerns about the slowdown in inflation with the growth in the labor market.

    On the other hand, ongoing expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates on hold in the coming months amid concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit. UK Retail Sales better than expected and UK Job Market better than expected too: UK unemployment falls to lowest since 1975.

    As we expected, the break below 1.2978 led GBP/USD straight down to our Support 1.2830. The consolidation around 1.283 is occurring but it has a very limited amount of energy now. So, eyes on the next re-test of 1.28, as we still are bearish until 1.27 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Bearish
    1st Resistance: 1.2978
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2830
    2nd Support: 1.2705



    Daily Forex Analysis: AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-August-28-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    After U.S. Durable Goods Orders only slightly better than expected, Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole offered no hints on monetary policy and the outlook for interest rates.

    Oil prices turned higher after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic crude supplies fell less than expected last week, but that gasoline stocks declined far more than forecast.
    Earlier, Oil prices were pressured and fell on concerns of oversupply as Libyan output recovers
    weighed down by concerns amid ongoing global supply glut concerns.

    Last Australia Employment Change was seen better than Expected but Full Employment Change was negative. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes painted a possible stronger than expected growth spurt in the coming year in an otherwise light data day with North Korea a bit toned down on firing missiles at or near U.S. territory Guam.

    Turbulence surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration following the backlash over his statements on the white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. Market players see the recent political turmoil as an obstacle to Trump being able to follow through on infrastructure spending and tax reforms.

    As we wrote previously, breakout of 0.7916, important level, led down to 0.783 area, our first target. Now 0.7916 Resistance area should push price down again. We are still bearish until 0.774 area, but first 0.783 has to be successfully violated again (and this is taking a long time due to the end-of-summer hedging, in the absence of relevant macro economical or political data, that messed up a little bit the whole picture).

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 0.7916
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

  6. #6
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    Default

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-September-06-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

    Last Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was disappointing. German and Spanish Retail Sales were also worse than expected. German Employment figures in stall and Italian Unemployment rate rises.
    German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.
    In Europe only CPI ticked up.

    On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected. Also U.S. CB Consumer Confidence was higher than expected (at its highest since March).

    We are facing two possible scenarios. 1) Fake breakout of both 1.19 and 1.185 will be re-absorbed (what we think most probable). 2) 1.1920 area will be violated once again. Weak Jobs Report, North Korea Crisis, Hurricanes and delayed Trumponomics are weighing on USD outlook.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Neutral
    1st Resistance: 1.1920
    2nd Resistance: 1.1990
    1st Support: 1.1856
    2nd Support: 1.1756



    GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-September-06-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

    UK Services PMI worse than expected. Last UK Construction PMI also worse than expected while UK Manufacturing PMI was better than expected.

    UK GDP (Preliminary release) came as expected but Business Investment (Preliminary release) was on the downbeat.

    On the other hand, last U.S. Manufacturing and House Markets data were worse than expected but U.S. GDP was surprisingly relevantly better than expected and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014).

    Now we are on the Resistance in area 1.304. Eyes on the next re-test of 1.2978, first, and if successful we are bearish until 1.285 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.3040
    2nd Resistance: 1.3099
    1st Support: 1.2850
    2nd Support: 1.2740



    AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-September-06-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and, later, on Australia Retail Sales.

    Australia GDP on the downbeat.

    Last RBA interest rate decision confirmed rates as expected at 1.50%. Australia reported its current account came in at a surplus of A$9.6 billion, wider than the A$8.1 billion surplus seen in the second quarter. China's Caixin services PMI for August also jumped to 52.7, compared with a reading of 51.8 expected.

    Australian Manufacturing Index better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.

    On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected.

    North Korea claimed it tested a hydrogen bomb, drastically raising tensions with South Korea, Japan and the United States and also angering ally China. U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said "Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam or our allies will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming".

    AUDUSD will consolidate around 0.798. Then, we are likely to see some consolidation moves around 0.7916. Only if 0.783 will be successfully violated again, then 0.7735 will be likely to be re-tested. Otherwise, there is room up over 0.804 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Neutral
    1st Resistance: 0.7980
    2nd Resistance: 0.8034
    1st Support: 0.7828
    2nd Support: 0.7735

  7. #7
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    EUR/USD
    During the European trading, the euro strengthened against the US dollar. Bearing in mind that today there is no economic information from the Eurozone, the exchange rate of this currency pair may be under the influence of the US currency. During the European trading, the euro strengthened against the dollar by 0.16%.

    eur usd.jpg

    eurusd-morning-indicators-07-09-2017.jpg


    GBP/USD

    The British pound weakened against the US dollar during Asian trading. At 09:30, the United Kingdom did announce the Halifax house price index, and at 14:30, the number of applications for new unemployed persons will be announced in the United States, which together can influence the exchange rate of this currency pair. During the Asian trading, the British pound weakened against the US dollar by 0.05%.

    GBP USD.jpg

    gbpusd-morning-indicators-07-09-2017.jpg

  8. #8
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    Default

    EUR/USD

    EURUSD-Forex-Analysis-08-09-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    During his ECB Press Conference, President Draghi said that growth forecasts for the Eurozone will keep on the good pace though inflation is doing worse than expected. Growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

    U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI worse than expected.

    Last Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was disappointing. German and Spanish Retail Sales were also worse than expected. German Employment figures in stall and Italian Unemployment rate rises.
    German Manufacturing PMI better than expected but German ZEW Economic Sentiment again worse than the expectations (for the 4th time in a row): the ZEW research institute said its monthly survey showed its economic sentiment index fell to 10.0, the weakest reading since October.
    In Europe only CPI ticked up.

    On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected. Also U.S. CB Consumer Confidence was higher than expected (at its highest since March).

    We are facing two possible scenarios. 1) Fake breakout of both 1.199 and 1.19 are likely to be re-absorbed (we still think this as the most probable). 2) 1.20 area will be definitely violated once again. Weak Jobs Report, North Korea Crisis, Hurricanes and delayed Trumponomics are weighing on USD outlook but Draghi conference anticipated upcoming controls against the risk of an overbought EUR.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Neutral
    1st Resistance: 1.1990 (fake breakout)
    2nd Resistance: 1.2080
    1st Support: 1.1920
    2nd Support: 1.1856



    GBP/USD

    GBPUSD-Forex-Analysis-08-09-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Eyes on today UK Manufacturing Production.

    UK Services PMI worse than expected. Last UK Construction PMI also worse than expected while UK Manufacturing PMI was better than expected.

    Longer than 1 year ago, Brexit happened and now London is starting to do an analysis about Brexit effects and outcome.
    - GDP slowed down (it is the Eurozone Slowest growth, even Greece grew more)
    - High Consumer Price (with freezed wages and salaries, the effect is a widespread social impoverishment)
    - Hard Brexit was just only a rumor: London is starting to understand that Brexit is a jump into nowhere (especially as far as financial sectors are concerned).

    The last resort for the UK, is in the next elections in Germany (they hope a surprise will occur in Germany): without Merkel, London will probably rely on softer Eurozone policies regarding the UK. But this possibility is not given for granted either.

    We think that GBP is heavily overbought and 1.3099 fake breakout will be re-absorbed with downside target in area 1.304. If the upward overshooting will continue, then next stop is definitely 1.32 Resistance.

    Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2001:

    Weekly Trend: Overbought
    1st Resistance: 1.3099 (fake breakout)
    2nd Resistance: 1.3203
    1st Support: 1.3040
    2nd Support: 1.2850




    AUD/USD

    AUDUSD-Forex-Analysis-08-09-2017-by-SGT-Markets-Forex-Broker-and-CFD.jpg

    Australia reported home loans data for July jumped 2.9%, compared with a 1.0% gain seen. But Trade Balance and Retail Sales worse than expected, and GDP on the downbeat too.

    Last Australian Manufacturing Index was better than expected and private new capital expenditure for the second quarter jumped 0.8%, well above a 0.3% gain seen. Also Building Approvals and Construction Work Done better than expected.

    On the other hand, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI better than expected (at the highest since November 2014), U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change way better than expected and U.S. GDP surprisingly relevantly better than expected.

    AUDUSD temporarily rising up because of USD weakness rather than because of AUD strength.
    Breakout of 0.783 on the downside is postponed and this means that a definitive breakout of 0.803 area has some chances to happen. As we wrote previously, there is room up over 0.804 area until 0.81 area.

    Our special Fibo Retracements are confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

    Weekly Trend: Neutral
    1st Resistance: 0.8034
    2nd Resistance: 0.8130
    1st Support: 0.7980
    2nd Support: 0.7916

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    94

    Default

    EUR / USD fell this year to test level 1.19479. This currency pair lost some of the value earned last week as the US dollar strengthened yesterday. The US currency has been in force since the perception of risk on the market has fallen since the North Korean problem has lost a bit of intensity. However, North Korea's problem is far from being resolved, given that the UN Security Council last night approved additional sanctions for North Korea. This resolution aims to reduce the import of refined oil to 2 million barrels per year, to ban the export of textiles and to allow countries to freeze cargo of cargo ships whose operators do not approve for open sea inspections. On the other hand, yesterday, the Euro was under pressure following a statement by Benoit Coeure, a member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, who said the ECB's policy would stay moderate in the long run. This afternoon will publish the new job positions (JOLTs Job Openings) for July, which should attract the attention of the investor.

    eur usd.jpg

    eurusd.jpg

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    94

    Default

    EUR/USD

    The euro has weakened against the US dollar during Asian trade. Today, there are no significant economic news from the Euro zone, while in the USA at 2:30 pm, information about the number of new applications for unemployment assistance and consumer price index (CPI) will be published, which investors expect with special care since information provided by the CPI could indicate Will and when will the next increase in the interest rate in the United States. During the Asian trade, the euro weakened against the US dollar by 0.09%.

    eur usd.jpg

    eurusd-indicators-20170914.jpg




    GBP/USD

    The British pound strengthened against the US dollar during Asian trading. Today, price fluctuations on this currency pair are possible. At 1:00 pm, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate, while in the USA at 2:30 pm, information about the number of new applications for unemployment assistance and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published. During the Asian trading, the pound strengthened against the US dollar by 0.06%.


    gbp usd.jpg

    gbpusd-indicators-20170914.jpg

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