FBS Holdings: US dollar may become strong (BofTokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ)
Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. believe that by April the Dollar Index may gain 5% more after it had already risen from the minimum December 8, 2009 at 75.631 hit on November 4 getting yesterday above the 80 level. The index founds itself above the top of the Ichimoku Cloud for the third day in a row forming a “golden cross”: 5-day MA crosses above 21-day and 65-day lines. According to the specialists, if the 5-day line consistently stays above the 90-day MA, and the 65-day and 90-day lines go up, dollar’s downtrend will end and the phase of strong greenback will begin.
The dollar Index is measuring the greenback performance versus euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone and Swiss franc. US currency lost 9.4% versus its main counterparts since reaching maximum in June.
When dollar’s uptrend is confirmed, the index may climb by January to 82.170 level representing 50% Fibonacci retracement of a decline from June to the beginning of November. By March-April American currency may reach 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 83.713.
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