Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that any further increases of the oil price will help the single currency gain versus the greenback due to the growing concerns over price rises in the euro-zone.

The specialists note that the European central bank focuses on headline inflation, while the Federal Reserve – on core inflation. As a result, oil prices will likely have a larger impact on the ECB's policy approach.

The difference in the mandates for the Fed and ECB means that oil prices are an important driver of the pair EUR/USD.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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