Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the emerging markets’ currencies will keep outperforming the currencies of the developed nations. It will happen as food prices have soared to the record maximums, while oil is trading high, at $100 a barrel. According to Barclays Capital, in emerging economies inflation is accelerating at a 6% rate, while in the developed nations this figure is equal only to 2%.

As a result, inflationary pressure in the developing countries increases and their authorities have to raise interest rates – in February rates were lifted up in Peru, China, Colombia, Indonesia and Russia. So, Morgan Stanley favors Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Malaysian ringgit.

Specialists at Nomura Holdings say that the quickest way to stem inflation is to strengthen national currency. If the country’s officials have to make a choice facing such issues as weak economic growth and high inflation, they will have to deal firstly with the latter and here comes monetary tightening.

Strategists at Citigroup believe that the first to hike will be developing countries most reliant on imported oil – fuel and mining products account for about 36% of South Korea’s imports, 25% in China, 27% for Turkey and 24% for Indonesia. These nations can’t afford to keep pursuing loose monetary policy and exchange-rate depreciation.