Economists expect that Japanese economy will rebound in the second half of the year. However, their views vary on the point whether Japan will slip into a recession or not.

Analysts at Mizuho Securities are sure that the country’s economy will contract, while the specialists at Barclays Capital don’t think Japanese GDP will drop in any quarter of 2011. The median estimate of Bloomberg survey is that Japan will add 0.4% in the second quarter on the annual basis.

The size of its decline in the first half will depend on the magnitude of electricity disruptions caused by the earthquake and tsunami, notes Goldman Sachs. The analysts underline that it’s very difficult to measure the negative effect on Japanese production, but it’s clear that various elements of the supply chain will be affected.

Economists at Deutsche Bank say that even if panic buying of daily necessities may temporarily boost the demand, the level of economic activity will be lower” because of fears of radiation from the power plant and electricity shortages. It’s necessary to remember that in the fourth quarter of 2010 Japanese economy will lose 0.3%. Deutsche Bank analysts now see a second straight drop in GDP, with a return to growth in April to June.

Analysts at Credit Agricole underline that a lot of wealth was lost as a result of the disaster and the country’s economy will find itself under negative pressure in the medium and long term.

Specialists at Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi UFG Securities expect that Japan’s GDP will decrease by 6-12% in the second quarter on the annual basis. All in all, the economists think that Japanese economy will lose 1-3% in 2011. The forecasts for 2012 differ from contraction by 1% to 3% recovery.