Japan’s February data released today was surprisingly good: the unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% in January to 4.6% last month (+370,000 jobs, figures don’t include data from Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures). The job-to-applicant ratio rose to 0.62 that means there were 62 positions for every 100 candidates in February, the highest since January 2009. Retail sales showed annual increase by 0.1%, while the economists were looking forward to 0.5% drop.

As a result, it’s possible to conclude that the country’s economy was on the improvement path before the March 11 earthquake that damaged northeastern regions.

However, it widely believed that such data is not enough for the bright outlook. Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect that Japanese GDP will contract in the second quarter. The specialists revised downwards their growth forecast for the fiscal year starting April 1 from 1.3% to 0.7%.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost about 10% since the temblor. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect that industrial production that will be published tomorrow declined by 0.1% in January. The government estimates damage from the disaster by 25 trillion yen ($306 billion).